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    {
      "start": 0.0,
      "end": 1.86,
      "text": "欢迎收听跨国串门计划"
    },
    {
      "start": 1.86,
      "end": 8.32,
      "text": "这是一档专注于让中文听众无障碍欣赏全球优质外语播客的节目"
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    {
      "start": 8.32,
      "end": 10.620000000000001,
      "text": "通过先进的AI声纹客轮技术"
    },
    {
      "start": 10.620000000000001,
      "end": 13.0,
      "text": "我们不仅将内容翻译成中文"
    },
    {
      "start": 13.0,
      "end": 16.66,
      "text": "还完美保留了原主持人和嘉宾的独特声音"
    },
    {
      "start": 16.66,
      "end": 21.98,
      "text": "为您呈现全球顶尖的AI财经健康与科技领域精品内容"
    },
    {
      "start": 21.98,
      "end": 23.52,
      "text": "我是主播一凯"
    },
    {
      "start": 23.52,
      "end": 26.02,
      "text": "一位热衷于AI领域的产品经理"
    },
    {
      "start": 26.02,
      "end": 30.3,
      "text": "很荣幸能为您搭建这座跨越语言障碍的桥梁"
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    {
      "start": 30.3,
      "end": 34.8,
      "text": "接下来让我为您简单介绍本期我们克隆的这档节目"
    },
    {
      "start": 34.8,
      "end": 37.36,
      "text": "并分享几句非常精彩的原话"
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    {
      "start": 37.36,
      "end": 42.5,
      "text": "本期我们克隆的是Patrick O'Shaughnessy主持的投资访谈播客"
    },
    {
      "start": 42.5,
      "end": 44.019999999999996,
      "text": "Invest Like the Best"
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    {
      "start": 44.019999999999996,
      "end": 48.66,
      "text": "这是一档长期关注商业科技与资本市场的深度对话节目"
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    {
      "start": 48.66,
      "end": 53.46,
      "text": "嘉宾Gavin Baker是Atrades Management的创始人兼投资人"
    },
    {
      "start": 53.46,
      "end": 57.54,
      "text": "长期研究科技公司AI基础设施和市场周期"
    },
    {
      "start": 57.54,
      "end": 60.28,
      "text": "节目里有几句原话"
    },
    {
      "start": 60.28,
      "end": 61.66,
      "text": "特别有冲击力"
    },
    {
      "start": 61.66,
      "end": 64.74,
      "text": "资本主义史上从来没有发生过这种事"
    },
    {
      "start": 64.74,
      "end": 66.56,
      "text": "别说我的职业生涯了"
    },
    {
      "start": 66.56,
      "end": 68.64,
      "text": "就是整个资本主义史"
    },
    {
      "start": 68.64,
      "end": 70.62,
      "text": "整个商业史都没有过"
    },
    {
      "start": 70.62,
      "end": 72.52,
      "text": "历史不会简单重复"
    },
    {
      "start": 72.52,
      "end": 73.3,
      "text": "但会押韵"
    },
    {
      "start": 73.3,
      "end": 74.56,
      "text": "作为投资者"
    },
    {
      "start": 74.56,
      "end": 77.4,
      "text": "我们必须非常清醒地意识到这一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 77.4,
      "end": 80.76,
      "text": "如果我们不能都成为机关枪的大师"
    },
    {
      "start": 81.0,
      "end": 82.8,
      "text": "我们就会被机关枪支配"
    },
    {
      "start": 82.8,
      "end": 85.74,
      "text": "我们需要带着谦逊来面对这件事"
    },
    {
      "start": 85.74,
      "end": 88.12,
      "text": "承认这里有大量不确定性"
    },
    {
      "start": 88.12,
      "end": 89.24,
      "text": "并且认真思考"
    },
    {
      "start": 89.24,
      "end": 92.86,
      "text": "这些判断背后是一场关于AI资本"
    },
    {
      "start": 92.86,
      "end": 94.75999999999999,
      "text": "和未来秩序的高密度对话"
    },
    {
      "start": 94.75999999999999,
      "end": 98.78,
      "text": "那我们就一起来听听这期完整节目"
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    {
      "start": 98.78,
      "end": 100.74,
      "text": "AI领域当时发生的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 100.74,
      "end": 102.64,
      "text": "我觉得是资本主义史上"
    },
    {
      "start": 102.64,
      "end": 104.7,
      "text": "美国商业史上最了不起的时刻"
    },
    {
      "start": 104.7,
      "end": 107.14,
      "text": "Anthropic增加了110亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 107.14,
      "end": 109.84,
      "text": "过去10年12年里创立的"
    },
    {
      "start": 109.84,
      "end": 111.66,
      "text": "三家最受关注的SaaS公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 111.66,
      "end": 114.32,
      "text": "是Palantir, Snowflake和Databricks"
    },
    {
      "start": 114.32,
      "end": 117.02,
      "text": "这三家公司花了十年时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 117.02,
      "end": 118.22,
      "text": "打造自己的业务"
    },
    {
      "start": 118.22,
      "end": 120.24,
      "text": "Anthropic一个月就增加了"
    },
    {
      "start": 120.24,
      "end": 121.52,
      "text": "相当于他们三家公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 121.52,
      "end": 123.03999999999999,
      "text": "合计规模的业务"
    },
    {
      "start": 123.03999999999999,
      "end": 124.2,
      "text": "资本主义史上"
    },
    {
      "start": 124.2,
      "end": 125.66,
      "text": "从来没有发生过这种事"
    },
    {
      "start": 125.66,
      "end": 127.58,
      "text": "别说我的职业生涯了"
    },
    {
      "start": 127.58,
      "end": 129.46,
      "text": "就是整个资本主义史"
    },
    {
      "start": 129.46,
      "end": 130.96,
      "text": "整个商业史都没有过"
    },
    {
      "start": 130.96,
      "end": 133.44,
      "text": "这是我们第六次做这件事了"
    },
    {
      "start": 133.44,
      "end": 135.1,
      "text": "如果你能相信的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 135.1,
      "end": 136.57999999999998,
      "text": "这让你又回到了第一名"
    },
    {
      "start": 136.57999999999998,
      "end": 138.85999999999999,
      "text": "或者至少和Gurley并列第一"
    },
    {
      "start": 138.86,
      "end": 142.12,
      "text": "我觉得就算和上一次相比"
    },
    {
      "start": 142.12,
      "end": 144.26000000000002,
      "text": "那次已经很让人兴奋"
    },
    {
      "start": 144.26000000000002,
      "end": 145.12,
      "text": "很精彩了"
    },
    {
      "start": 145.12,
      "end": 147.14000000000001,
      "text": "现在这个时点还要更有意思"
    },
    {
      "start": 147.14000000000001,
      "end": 149.84,
      "text": "也许你可以先随便聊聊"
    },
    {
      "start": 149.84,
      "end": 151.48000000000002,
      "text": "今年三月和四月"
    },
    {
      "start": 151.48000000000002,
      "end": 152.86,
      "text": "你亲身经历那段时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 152.86,
      "end": 153.74,
      "text": "是什么感觉"
    },
    {
      "start": 153.74,
      "end": 154.86,
      "text": "对我来说"
    },
    {
      "start": 154.86,
      "end": 157.06,
      "text": "那像是一个完全独特的"
    },
    {
      "start": 157.06,
      "end": 159.06,
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    },
    {
      "start": 159.06,
      "end": 160.76000000000002,
      "text": "你又是最认真研究"
    },
    {
      "start": 160.76000000000002,
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      "text": "历史研究这些时刻的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 162.58,
      "end": 165.02,
      "text": "所以那到底是什么感觉"
    },
    {
      "start": 165.02,
      "end": 167.96,
      "text": "大体上说回撤有两种"
    },
    {
      "start": 167.96,
      "end": 169.36,
      "text": "一种回撤是你错了"
    },
    {
      "start": 169.36,
      "end": 171.14000000000001,
      "text": "公司业绩没有达到预期"
    },
    {
      "start": 171.14000000000001,
      "end": 173.04000000000002,
      "text": "你的假设被证伪了"
    },
    {
      "start": 173.04000000000002,
      "end": 175.62,
      "text": "你必须认亏把这笔损失确认下来"
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    {
      "start": 175.62,
      "end": 178.48000000000002,
      "text": "另一种回撤或者说一段跑输的时期"
    },
    {
      "start": 178.48000000000002,
      "end": 181.82,
      "text": "是你因为一些自己非常非常了解的公司而跑输"
    },
    {
      "start": 181.82,
      "end": 184.98000000000002,
      "text": "而且你非常不同意市场给出的价格走势"
    },
    {
      "start": 184.98000000000002,
      "end": 186.54000000000002,
      "text": "这种时候你可以加码"
    },
    {
      "start": 186.54000000000002,
      "end": 188.24,
      "text": "你不必把负收益确认下来"
    },
    {
      "start": 188.24,
      "end": 190.16,
      "text": "而是可以积累被压住的alpha"
    },
    {
      "start": 190.16,
      "end": 191.82,
      "text": "也就是未来的表现"
    },
    {
      "start": 191.82,
      "end": 195.32,
      "text": "对我来说三月就是这种感觉"
    },
    {
      "start": 195.32,
      "end": 196.84,
      "text": "感觉是NASDAQ在下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 196.84,
      "end": 198.20000000000002,
      "text": "但与此同时"
    },
    {
      "start": 198.20000000000002,
      "end": 199.92000000000002,
      "text": "AI领域正在发生的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 199.92000000000002,
      "end": 201.28,
      "text": "我觉得是资本主义史上"
    },
    {
      "start": 201.28,
      "end": 203.28,
      "text": "美国商业史上最了不起的时刻"
    },
    {
      "start": 203.28,
      "end": 204.34,
      "text": "我的意思是"
    },
    {
      "start": 204.34,
      "end": 206.86,
      "text": "Anthropic增加了110亿美元RR"
    },
    {
      "start": 206.86,
      "end": 208.1,
      "text": "让我震惊的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 208.1,
      "end": 209.8,
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    },
    {
      "start": 209.8,
      "end": 211.88,
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    },
    {
      "start": 211.88,
      "end": 213.82,
      "text": "5万亿到10万亿美元的价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 213.82,
      "end": 214.92000000000002,
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    },
    {
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      "end": 216.22,
      "text": "过去10年12年里"
    },
    {
      "start": 216.22,
      "end": 219.54,
      "text": "创立的三家最受关注的SaaS公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 219.54,
      "end": 220.46,
      "text": "大概就是Palantir"
    },
    {
      "start": 220.46,
      "end": 221.76,
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    },
    {
      "start": 221.76,
      "end": 224.58,
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    },
    {
      "start": 224.58,
      "end": 225.68,
      "text": "合起来是数万人"
    },
    {
      "start": 225.68,
      "end": 228.72,
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    },
    {
      "start": 228.72,
      "end": 231.6,
      "text": "而Anthropic一个月就增加了"
    },
    {
      "start": 231.6,
      "end": 234.28,
      "text": "相当于他们三家公司合计规模的业务"
    },
    {
      "start": 234.28,
      "end": 237.12,
      "text": "资本主义史上从来没有发生过这种事"
    },
    {
      "start": 237.12,
      "end": 239.12,
      "text": "别说我的职业生涯了"
    },
    {
      "start": 239.12,
      "end": 240.6,
      "text": "就是整个资本主义史"
    },
    {
      "start": 240.6,
      "end": 242.02,
      "text": "整个商业史都没有过"
    },
    {
      "start": 242.02,
      "end": 243.78,
      "text": "我是说这太疯狂了"
    },
    {
      "start": 243.78,
      "end": 246.02,
      "text": "然后Krishna上了这个节目"
    },
    {
      "start": 246.02,
      "end": 247.36,
      "text": "分享了一些数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 247.36,
      "end": 248.5,
      "text": "DR是五百分之"
    },
    {
      "start": 248.5,
      "end": 250.84,
      "text": "你把这个数字按三年算一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 250.84,
      "end": 252.14000000000001,
      "text": "简直离谱"
    },
    {
      "start": 252.14000000000001,
      "end": 254.0,
      "text": "所以这件事完全没有先例"
    },
    {
      "start": 254.0,
      "end": 256.68,
      "text": "我们这些科技投资人经常会听到"
    },
    {
      "start": 256.68,
      "end": 257.94,
      "text": "关于S曲线"
    },
    {
      "start": 257.94,
      "end": 259.76,
      "text": "关于投资指数增长的讨论"
    },
    {
      "start": 259.76,
      "end": 262.1,
      "text": "但我从来没见过这样的指数增长"
    },
    {
      "start": 262.1,
      "end": 265.62,
      "text": "他感觉甚至比DeepSeek那次还要极端"
    },
    {
      "start": 265.62,
      "end": 268.2,
      "text": "而DeepSeek当时的情况也非常类似"
    },
    {
      "start": 268.2,
      "end": 270.5,
      "text": "如果我们回到2025年"
    },
    {
      "start": 270.5,
      "end": 272.54,
      "text": "DeepSeek引发过一次大抛售"
    },
    {
      "start": 272.54,
      "end": 273.92,
      "text": "那其实很奇怪"
    },
    {
      "start": 273.92,
      "end": 277.24,
      "text": "因为那篇论文是在DeepSeek Monday前7天发布的"
    },
    {
      "start": 277.24,
      "end": 280.1,
      "text": "我记得他是在一个周一发布的"
    },
    {
      "start": 280.1,
      "end": 281.58,
      "text": "而那天美国是假日"
    },
    {
      "start": 281.58,
      "end": 282.7,
      "text": "我读了之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 282.7,
      "end": 284.46,
      "text": "想这件事对AI交易来说"
    },
    {
      "start": 284.46,
      "end": 286.78,
      "text": "可能不会被市场解读的很正面"
    },
    {
      "start": 286.78,
      "end": 288.35999999999996,
      "text": "所以我采取了行动"
    },
    {
      "start": 288.35999999999996,
      "end": 290.8,
      "text": "一周之后我们经历了Deep Seek Monday"
    },
    {
      "start": 290.8,
      "end": 293.8,
      "text": "AI相关资产真的大幅崩了下去"
    },
    {
      "start": 293.8,
      "end": 294.65999999999997,
      "text": "这很奇怪"
    },
    {
      "start": 294.65999999999997,
      "end": 296.24,
      "text": "因为到了Deep Seek Monday那天"
    },
    {
      "start": 296.24,
      "end": 297.97999999999996,
      "text": "其实已经非常清楚了"
    },
    {
      "start": 297.97999999999996,
      "end": 299.18,
      "text": "这会是有史以来"
    },
    {
      "start": 299.18,
      "end": 301.68,
      "text": "对算力需求最利好的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 301.68,
      "end": 304.88,
      "text": "亚洲AWS Availability Zone里的价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 304.88,
      "end": 306.32,
      "text": "当时已经差不多翻倍了"
    },
    {
      "start": 306.32,
      "end": 308.65999999999997,
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    },
    {
      "start": 308.65999999999997,
      "end": 311.47999999999996,
      "text": "而这也是我们第一次看到推理模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 311.48,
      "end": 313.6,
      "text": "在Inference阶段比非推理模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 313.6,
      "end": 314.76,
      "text": "要吃多得多的算力"
    },
    {
      "start": 314.76,
      "end": 316.8,
      "text": "所以那次也是类似的局面"
    },
    {
      "start": 316.8,
      "end": 319.16,
      "text": "但你需要做一点功课才能看出来"
    },
    {
      "start": 319.16,
      "end": 320.34000000000003,
      "text": "其实也没那么难"
    },
    {
      "start": 320.34000000000003,
      "end": 322.46000000000004,
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    },
    {
      "start": 322.46000000000004,
      "end": 325.26,
      "text": "但DRM价格在垂直上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 325.26,
      "end": 327.84000000000003,
      "text": "亚洲GPU价格在垂直上涨"
    },
    {
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      "end": 329.40000000000003,
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    },
    {
      "start": 329.40000000000003,
      "end": 330.86,
      "text": "然后两三天之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 330.86,
      "end": 332.1,
      "text": "美国的GPU价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 332.1,
      "end": 334.1,
      "text": "也就是GPU租赁价格也开始上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 334.1,
      "end": 336.64000000000004,
      "text": "到了三月你要做的事就更简单了"
    },
    {
      "start": 336.64000000000004,
      "end": 339.56,
      "text": "只要观察Anthropic身上正在发生什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 339.56,
      "end": 341.46000000000004,
      "text": "有很多人好像都后悔"
    },
    {
      "start": 341.46,
      "end": 342.78,
      "text": "2022年没有买"
    },
    {
      "start": 342.78,
      "end": 344.26,
      "text": "COVID期间没有买"
    },
    {
      "start": 344.26,
      "end": 345.46,
      "text": "Deep Seek那次没有买"
    },
    {
      "start": 345.46,
      "end": 348.97999999999996,
      "text": "4月初你又遇到了同样的估值环境"
    },
    {
      "start": 348.97999999999996,
      "end": 350.94,
      "text": "而且AI的拐点还更清楚"
    },
    {
      "start": 350.94,
      "end": 353.78,
      "text": "所以其实一直都有很多机会可以买入"
    },
    {
      "start": 353.78,
      "end": 356.0,
      "text": "AI当然让事情变复杂的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 356.0,
      "end": 356.97999999999996,
      "text": "Straight of Hormuz"
    },
    {
      "start": 356.97999999999996,
      "end": 358.32,
      "text": "我后来相信了"
    },
    {
      "start": 358.32,
      "end": 361.58,
      "text": "而且现在也相信市场当时可能误判了一件事"
    },
    {
      "start": 361.58,
      "end": 363.14,
      "text": "我不是宏观专家"
    },
    {
      "start": 363.14,
      "end": 366.09999999999997,
      "text": "但我确实做很多国家安全相关的投资"
    },
    {
      "start": 366.09999999999997,
      "end": 367.59999999999997,
      "text": "所以我能接触到一些专家"
    },
    {
      "start": 367.59999999999997,
      "end": 370.35999999999996,
      "text": "他们也很愿意跟我分享想法和观点"
    },
    {
      "start": 370.36,
      "end": 372.72,
      "text": "Straight of Hormuz如果被关闭"
    },
    {
      "start": 372.72,
      "end": 375.26,
      "text": "对美国来说其实相对是很有利的"
    },
    {
      "start": 375.26,
      "end": 376.38,
      "text": "为什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 376.38,
      "end": 379.14,
      "text": "尤其是考虑到现任政府的目标"
    },
    {
      "start": 379.14,
      "end": 381.64,
      "text": "电力是一个非常重要的工业投入"
    },
    {
      "start": 381.64,
      "end": 383.3,
      "text": "或者说制造业投入"
    },
    {
      "start": 383.3,
      "end": 385.54,
      "text": "影响美国电价的关键投入"
    },
    {
      "start": 385.54,
      "end": 388.08000000000004,
      "text": "也就是会进一步影响AI的关键投入"
    },
    {
      "start": 388.08000000000004,
      "end": 389.52000000000004,
      "text": "是NG天然气"
    },
    {
      "start": 389.52000000000004,
      "end": 391.78000000000003,
      "text": "Bloomberg上那个天然气合约"
    },
    {
      "start": 391.78000000000003,
      "end": 393.14,
      "text": "当时它跌了1%"
    },
    {
      "start": 393.14,
      "end": 396.86,
      "text": "而亚洲欧洲以及其他地方的天然气价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 396.86,
      "end": 398.26,
      "text": "则翻了一倍或两倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 398.26,
      "end": 400.59999999999997,
      "text": "所以我们的相对制造业竞争力"
    },
    {
      "start": 400.59999999999997,
      "end": 402.59999999999997,
      "text": "几乎是一夜之间就提升了"
    },
    {
      "start": 402.59999999999997,
      "end": 404.24,
      "text": "不管这是好是坏"
    },
    {
      "start": 404.24,
      "end": 406.96,
      "text": "这似乎正是特朗普政府在意的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 406.96,
      "end": 409.48,
      "text": "他们非常关注美国的相对位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 409.48,
      "end": 412.21999999999997,
      "text": "我觉得很多人还记得1970年代"
    },
    {
      "start": 412.21999999999997,
      "end": 414.48,
      "text": "70年代之所以那么痛苦"
    },
    {
      "start": 414.48,
      "end": 416.34,
      "text": "不只是因为价格上涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 416.34,
      "end": 418.26,
      "text": "而是真的出现了汽油短缺"
    },
    {
      "start": 418.26,
      "end": 420.06,
      "text": "然后你再往下看"
    },
    {
      "start": 420.06,
      "end": 423.64,
      "text": "会发现美国经济现在对能源的依赖程度"
    },
    {
      "start": 423.64,
      "end": 425.2,
      "text": "已经远低于过去"
    },
    {
      "start": 425.2,
      "end": 429.02,
      "text": "美国现在是全球最大的石油和天然气生产国"
    },
    {
      "start": 429.02,
      "end": 432.53999999999996,
      "text": "而且我们现在也成了全球最大的石油和天然气出口国"
    },
    {
      "start": 432.53999999999996,
      "end": 435.86,
      "text": "在这之上还有相对制造业优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 435.86,
      "end": 439.84,
      "text": "所以我觉得这让人更容易继续关注AI的基本面"
    },
    {
      "start": 439.84,
      "end": 443.06,
      "text": "继续关注那些从历史上看很有吸引力的估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 443.06,
      "end": 445.08,
      "text": "我认为从相对角度看"
    },
    {
      "start": 445.08,
      "end": 447.36,
      "text": "科技股相对于市场其他部分"
    },
    {
      "start": 447.36,
      "end": 451.15999999999997,
      "text": "基本上已经便宜到过去十年里最便宜的水平"
    },
    {
      "start": 451.15999999999997,
      "end": 454.32,
      "text": "你把这一点放到市场效率的背景下想一想"
    },
    {
      "start": 454.32,
      "end": 456.58,
      "text": "我们正处在资本主义历史上"
    },
    {
      "start": 456.58,
      "end": 457.68,
      "text": "最非凡的时刻"
    },
    {
      "start": 457.68,
      "end": 459.58,
      "text": "这对AI极其利好"
    },
    {
      "start": 459.58,
      "end": 461.12,
      "text": "而你居然还有机会"
    },
    {
      "start": 461.12,
      "end": 463.56,
      "text": "用非常有吸引力的估值去买AI"
    },
    {
      "start": 463.56,
      "end": 467.3,
      "text": "你怎么看Anthropic和OpenAI的估值倍数"
    },
    {
      "start": 467.3,
      "end": 468.54,
      "text": "在我看来"
    },
    {
      "start": 468.54,
      "end": 469.98,
      "text": "他们就像这轮趋势里"
    },
    {
      "start": 469.98,
      "end": 472.18,
      "text": "最纯粹最有代表性的资产"
    },
    {
      "start": 472.18,
      "end": 473.64,
      "text": "但他们的估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 473.64,
      "end": 475.2,
      "text": "其实并没有那么疯狂"
    },
    {
      "start": 475.2,
      "end": 477.9,
      "text": "如果你只看销售额倍数"
    },
    {
      "start": 477.9,
      "end": 479.82,
      "text": "再拿它和Databricks"
    },
    {
      "start": 479.82,
      "end": 481.14,
      "text": "Snowflake这些公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 481.14,
      "end": 482.92,
      "text": "在高峰期的交易倍数相比"
    },
    {
      "start": 482.92,
      "end": 484.8,
      "text": "你会怎么理解这件事"
    },
    {
      "start": 484.8,
      "end": 487.64000000000004,
      "text": "我确实认为从资本效率的角度看"
    },
    {
      "start": 487.64000000000004,
      "end": 490.58000000000004,
      "text": "OpenAI和Anthropic是很不一样的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 490.58000000000004,
      "end": 494.02000000000004,
      "text": "Anthropic的每Token成本明显比OpenAI低得多"
    },
    {
      "start": 494.02000000000004,
      "end": 495.22,
      "text": "事实就是这样"
    },
    {
      "start": 495.22,
      "end": 498.46000000000004,
      "text": "你只要看他们为了做到差不多的收入规模"
    },
    {
      "start": 498.46000000000004,
      "end": 500.12,
      "text": "各自烧掉了多少钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 500.12,
      "end": 502.56,
      "text": "就能看出来Anthropic烧的钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 502.56,
      "end": 504.68,
      "text": "可能比OpenAI少了80%"
    },
    {
      "start": 504.68,
      "end": 506.0,
      "text": "所以作为公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 506.0,
      "end": 508.18,
      "text": "他们显然有非常不同的结构性ROIC"
    },
    {
      "start": 508.18,
      "end": 510.20000000000005,
      "text": "我觉得OpenAI正在做很多事"
    },
    {
      "start": 510.2,
      "end": 513.9,
      "text": "我认为Sara Fryer是非常出色的CFO之一"
    },
    {
      "start": 513.9,
      "end": 516.28,
      "text": "我觉得他们正在做很多事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 516.28,
      "end": 517.74,
      "text": "试图改善这一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 517.74,
      "end": 520.0,
      "text": "而且他们拿到了很多compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 520.0,
      "end": 521.88,
      "text": "比其他公司更多"
    },
    {
      "start": 521.88,
      "end": 524.0,
      "text": "他们确实拿到了很多compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 524.0,
      "end": 525.92,
      "text": "这是另一个很大的差异"
    },
    {
      "start": 525.92,
      "end": 528.58,
      "text": "事实证明激进一点回报非常大"
    },
    {
      "start": 528.58,
      "end": 531.08,
      "text": "但Anthropic如果是900亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 531.08,
      "end": 533.02,
      "text": "估值对应50亿美元AR"
    },
    {
      "start": 533.02,
      "end": 534.36,
      "text": "而且还在增长"
    },
    {
      "start": 534.36,
      "end": 537.1,
      "text": "增长一千个bathenet"
    },
    {
      "start": 537.1,
      "end": 539.06,
      "text": "对增长速度非常夸张"
    },
    {
      "start": 539.06,
      "end": 541.04,
      "text": "也许一个更准确的说法是"
    },
    {
      "start": 541.04,
      "end": 543.5,
      "text": "如果Anthropic拥有全部compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 543.5,
      "end": 546.52,
      "text": "它今天的收入很可能远高于1000亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 546.52,
      "end": 548.2399999999999,
      "text": "也许是1500亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 548.2399999999999,
      "end": 549.64,
      "text": "而且我确实认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 549.64,
      "end": 552.8,
      "text": "他们显然已经降低了Cloud的智能水平"
    },
    {
      "start": 552.8,
      "end": 554.0799999999999,
      "text": "有一个分析说"
    },
    {
      "start": 554.0799999999999,
      "end": 556.78,
      "text": "即便是Cloud Opus在同样的问题上"
    },
    {
      "start": 556.78,
      "end": 559.3199999999999,
      "text": "生成的token也少了70%"
    },
    {
      "start": 559.3199999999999,
      "end": 560.8599999999999,
      "text": "就像我们上次聊过的"
    },
    {
      "start": 560.8599999999999,
      "end": 563.92,
      "text": "在某种程度上token数量等于答案质量"
    },
    {
      "start": 563.92,
      "end": 565.6199999999999,
      "text": "也等于思考质量"
    },
    {
      "start": 565.6199999999999,
      "end": 568.3599999999999,
      "text": "当然每个token的智能密度也很重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 568.36,
      "end": 569.46,
      "text": "作为用户"
    },
    {
      "start": 569.46,
      "end": 570.9,
      "text": "我确实感受到了这一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 570.9,
      "end": 571.84,
      "text": "所以我认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 571.84,
      "end": 574.16,
      "text": "如果compute不受限制"
    },
    {
      "start": 574.16,
      "end": 575.52,
      "text": "他们的收入会高得多"
    },
    {
      "start": 575.52,
      "end": 576.6,
      "text": "可能是1000亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 576.6,
      "end": 577.4,
      "text": "1500亿"
    },
    {
      "start": 577.4,
      "end": 579.44,
      "text": "也可能是2000亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 579.44,
      "end": 580.44,
      "text": "这样看你买的"
    },
    {
      "start": 580.44,
      "end": 582.2,
      "text": "可能更像是五倍无约数"
    },
    {
      "start": 582.2,
      "end": 584.46,
      "text": "收入我来编一个新数字"
    },
    {
      "start": 584.46,
      "end": 586.38,
      "text": "U2无约数run rate revenue"
    },
    {
      "start": 586.38,
      "end": 587.88,
      "text": "那你为什么觉得"
    },
    {
      "start": 587.88,
      "end": 589.5,
      "text": "他们不以3万亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 589.5,
      "end": 590.86,
      "text": "估值之类的价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 590.86,
      "end": 592.72,
      "text": "直接融1000亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 592.72,
      "end": 594.72,
      "text": "如果你是Anthropic的CFO"
    },
    {
      "start": 594.72,
      "end": 596.12,
      "text": "Christian很棒"
    },
    {
      "start": 596.12,
      "end": 598.02,
      "text": "我们刚请他上过节目"
    },
    {
      "start": 598.02,
      "end": 600.8,
      "text": "或者如果你是OpenAI的Sara"
    },
    {
      "start": 600.8,
      "end": 603.0799999999999,
      "text": "至少从Christian那期节目之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 603.0799999999999,
      "end": 604.76,
      "text": "我收到的反馈来看"
    },
    {
      "start": 604.76,
      "end": 607.52,
      "text": "我认识的所有人都想投这两家公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 607.52,
      "end": 609.54,
      "text": "我觉得这是明智的"
    },
    {
      "start": 609.54,
      "end": 610.98,
      "text": "因为未来是不确定的"
    },
    {
      "start": 610.98,
      "end": 614.22,
      "text": "你显然是在一个资本极其密集的游戏里"
    },
    {
      "start": 614.22,
      "end": 615.6999999999999,
      "text": "即使你是Anthropic"
    },
    {
      "start": 615.6999999999999,
      "end": 619.12,
      "text": "我相信他今天在Inference上的毛利率已经非常高"
    },
    {
      "start": 619.12,
      "end": 620.52,
      "text": "再说一次"
    },
    {
      "start": 620.52,
      "end": 623.9399999999999,
      "text": "Anthropic今年很可能就会开始产生现金"
    },
    {
      "start": 623.9399999999999,
      "end": 626.24,
      "text": "如果他还没有开始产生现金的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 626.24,
      "end": 629.0600000000001,
      "text": "而我认为他很可能已经在产生现金了"
    },
    {
      "start": 629.0600000000001,
      "end": 630.1800000000001,
      "text": "但即便如此"
    },
    {
      "start": 630.1800000000001,
      "end": 632.86,
      "text": "你大概还是希望以后能继续融资"
    },
    {
      "start": 632.86,
      "end": 634.42,
      "text": "拿到更多compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 634.42,
      "end": 636.84,
      "text": "这个世界充满不确定性"
    },
    {
      "start": 636.84,
      "end": 639.2,
      "text": "乌克兰开始真的真的占上风了"
    },
    {
      "start": 639.2,
      "end": 641.0600000000001,
      "text": "俄罗斯会怎么回应"
    },
    {
      "start": 641.0600000000001,
      "end": 644.08,
      "text": "我认为伊朗那边仍然有很多不确定性"
    },
    {
      "start": 644.08,
      "end": 646.5600000000001,
      "text": "所有这些不确定性可能都会放大"
    },
    {
      "start": 646.5600000000001,
      "end": 649.0,
      "text": "围绕台湾的地缘政治不确定性"
    },
    {
      "start": 649.0,
      "end": 651.0600000000001,
      "text": "所以这是一个不确定的世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 651.0600000000001,
      "end": 652.6800000000001,
      "text": "如果我想到Ellen"
    },
    {
      "start": 652.6800000000001,
      "end": 654.74,
      "text": "他一直都让投资人赚到了钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 654.74,
      "end": 657.14,
      "text": "他把这件事看得像一种神圣契约"
    },
    {
      "start": 657.14,
      "end": 659.26,
      "text": "结果就是因为他20年来"
    },
    {
      "start": 659.26,
      "end": 660.66,
      "text": "一直让人们赚到钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 660.66,
      "end": 663.16,
      "text": "他拥有了一种超能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 663.16,
      "end": 664.4,
      "text": "这种超能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 664.4,
      "end": 666.94,
      "text": "就是他基本上可以在任何时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 666.94,
      "end": 668.96,
      "text": "按自己想要的规模融资"
    },
    {
      "start": 668.96,
      "end": 670.6800000000001,
      "text": "我觉得这些公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 670.6800000000001,
      "end": 672.6800000000001,
      "text": "现在这样做是明智的"
    },
    {
      "start": 672.6800000000001,
      "end": 674.8,
      "text": "我不知道他们是不是这样思考的"
    },
    {
      "start": 674.8,
      "end": 676.02,
      "text": "但我确实认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 676.02,
      "end": 678.44,
      "text": "专注于让投资人赚钱是明智的"
    },
    {
      "start": 678.44,
      "end": 679.82,
      "text": "这会带来一些好处"
    },
    {
      "start": 679.82,
      "end": 682.48,
      "text": "而且这些好处不会只持续一两年"
    },
    {
      "start": 682.48,
      "end": 685.22,
      "text": "他们可以持续未来20到30年"
    },
    {
      "start": 685.22,
      "end": 687.38,
      "text": "伊朗做到这一点的方法"
    },
    {
      "start": 687.38,
      "end": 690.7,
      "text": "是不是某种系统性的低估SpaceX"
    },
    {
      "start": 690.7,
      "end": 692.1,
      "text": "或者其他公司的价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 692.1,
      "end": 694.1800000000001,
      "text": "实际的方法到底是什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 694.1800000000001,
      "end": 696.78,
      "text": "就是从来不在估值上贪心"
    },
    {
      "start": 696.78,
      "end": 698.84,
      "text": "对从来不把估值推得太高"
    },
    {
      "start": 698.84,
      "end": 699.88,
      "text": "就这么简单"
    },
    {
      "start": 699.88,
      "end": 702.08,
      "text": "我的朋友Antonio指出"
    },
    {
      "start": 702.08,
      "end": 703.82,
      "text": "SpaceX在大概10年里"
    },
    {
      "start": 703.82,
      "end": 706.3000000000001,
      "text": "每年复合增长率是30出头"
    },
    {
      "start": 706.3000000000001,
      "end": 707.52,
      "text": "这只是因为Ellen"
    },
    {
      "start": 707.52,
      "end": 709.9,
      "text": "我认为他很专注于保住这种超能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 709.9,
      "end": 712.4,
      "text": "他也试图在投资人和员工之间"
    },
    {
      "start": 712.4,
      "end": 713.88,
      "text": "找到一个公平的平衡"
    },
    {
      "start": 713.88,
      "end": 715.62,
      "text": "我觉得这是明智的"
    },
    {
      "start": 715.62,
      "end": 717.26,
      "text": "但Anthropic能不能以"
    },
    {
      "start": 717.26,
      "end": 718.9,
      "text": "比传闻中最新估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 718.9,
      "end": 721.18,
      "text": "至少高100%的价格融资"
    },
    {
      "start": 721.18,
      "end": 721.9399999999999,
      "text": "当然可以"
    },
    {
      "start": 721.9399999999999,
      "end": 724.64,
      "text": "我们来聊聊Watts和Wafers这部分"
    },
    {
      "start": 724.64,
      "end": 727.36,
      "text": "这一直是我最喜欢跟你聊的话题"
    },
    {
      "start": 727.36,
      "end": 729.8,
      "text": "也就是这轮基础设施建设的重要性"
    },
    {
      "start": 729.8,
      "end": 732.64,
      "text": "我感觉每次我觉得它有点过热了"
    },
    {
      "start": 732.64,
      "end": 734.4599999999999,
      "text": "下一次跟你聊的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 734.4599999999999,
      "end": 736.9,
      "text": "又会觉得我们之前做的还远远不够"
    },
    {
      "start": 736.9,
      "end": 738.88,
      "text": "你研究过很多S曲线"
    },
    {
      "start": 738.88,
      "end": 740.86,
      "text": "也研究过这些S曲线有多陡"
    },
    {
      "start": 740.86,
      "end": 742.44,
      "text": "而且你很了解历史"
    },
    {
      "start": 742.44,
      "end": 743.76,
      "text": "你现在怎么看"
    },
    {
      "start": 743.76,
      "end": 745.0600000000001,
      "text": "WATS和WAVERS"
    },
    {
      "start": 745.0600000000001,
      "end": 748.32,
      "text": "他们作为这一整件事的关键投入"
    },
    {
      "start": 748.32,
      "end": 749.74,
      "text": "到底有多重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 749.74,
      "end": 752.22,
      "text": "我会说在没有重大监管"
    },
    {
      "start": 752.22,
      "end": 753.76,
      "text": "和政治反弹的情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 753.76,
      "end": 755.92,
      "text": "资本主义会解决电力短缺问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 755.92,
      "end": 757.52,
      "text": "不过我觉得这种反弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 757.52,
      "end": 758.92,
      "text": "确实有可能发生"
    },
    {
      "start": 758.92,
      "end": 760.74,
      "text": "有一家大型PE公司的"
    },
    {
      "start": 760.74,
      "end": 762.36,
      "text": "数据中心基础设施"
    },
    {
      "start": 762.36,
      "end": 763.94,
      "text": "投资负责人说过"
    },
    {
      "start": 763.94,
      "end": 765.62,
      "text": "我记得可能是Blackstone"
    },
    {
      "start": 765.62,
      "end": 766.66,
      "text": "Apollo和KKR"
    },
    {
      "start": 766.66,
      "end": 768.6,
      "text": "他们以前最大的限制因素"
    },
    {
      "start": 768.6,
      "end": 769.64,
      "text": "是能源和芯片"
    },
    {
      "start": 769.64,
      "end": 772.76,
      "text": "现在更重要的是分区规划和审批"
    },
    {
      "start": 772.76,
      "end": 776.66,
      "text": "我觉得很多公司都在等中期选举之后再采取行动"
    },
    {
      "start": 776.66,
      "end": 778.1,
      "text": "比如可能的裁员"
    },
    {
      "start": 778.1,
      "end": 781.86,
      "text": "没人想在中期选举期间变成被打的靶子"
    },
    {
      "start": 781.86,
      "end": 786.78,
      "text": "但你也看到很多做涡轮机的公司都宣布了大幅提高产能的计划"
    },
    {
      "start": 786.78,
      "end": 790.38,
      "text": "现在能铸造那些巨大叶片的机器好像就两台"
    },
    {
      "start": 790.38,
      "end": 793.1999999999999,
      "text": "西方已经80年没造过这种机器了"
    },
    {
      "start": 793.1999999999999,
      "end": 795.72,
      "text": "我们已经不知道怎么造了等等等等"
    },
    {
      "start": 796.22,
      "end": 797.3,
      "text": "这些都是真的"
    },
    {
      "start": 797.3,
      "end": 801.0799999999999,
      "text": "我也绝不是在低估其中需要的工业工程能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 801.0799999999999,
      "end": 801.92,
      "text": "魔法和工艺"
    },
    {
      "start": 801.92,
      "end": 805.4799999999999,
      "text": "但从长期看资本主义很擅长解决这类问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 805.4799999999999,
      "end": 807.3399999999999,
      "text": "除了这些涡轮机之外"
    },
    {
      "start": 807.3399999999999,
      "end": 808.78,
      "text": "还有其他能源来源"
    },
    {
      "start": 808.78,
      "end": 810.8599999999999,
      "text": "只是时间周期更长"
    },
    {
      "start": 810.8599999999999,
      "end": 812.88,
      "text": "所以我觉得电力短缺"
    },
    {
      "start": 812.88,
      "end": 814.8199999999999,
      "text": "大概会在2027年"
    },
    {
      "start": 814.8199999999999,
      "end": 816.5799999999999,
      "text": "2028年开始缓解"
    },
    {
      "start": 816.5799999999999,
      "end": 819.4399999999999,
      "text": "然后我认为orbital compute会真正解决这个问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 819.4399999999999,
      "end": 822.6999999999999,
      "text": "我确实想重新定义一下orbital compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 822.6999999999999,
      "end": 825.24,
      "text": "因为人们一听到太空里的数据中心"
    },
    {
      "start": 825.24,
      "end": 827.62,
      "text": "就会想到我们上一期聊过的那种"
    },
    {
      "start": 827.62,
      "end": 829.7,
      "text": "在太空里建一个五角大楼"
    },
    {
      "start": 829.7,
      "end": 831.12,
      "text": "那么大的建筑"
    },
    {
      "start": 831.12,
      "end": 833.14,
      "text": "他们会说这我们做不到"
    },
    {
      "start": 833.14,
      "end": 835.32,
      "text": "但它不是那样的一个Blackwell Rack"
    },
    {
      "start": 835.32,
      "end": 837.32,
      "text": "重3000磅高8英尺"
    },
    {
      "start": 837.32,
      "end": 838.9,
      "text": "深4英尺宽3英尺"
    },
    {
      "start": 838.9,
      "end": 840.98,
      "text": "它就是在太空里的机架"
    },
    {
      "start": 840.98,
      "end": 843.24,
      "text": "SpaceX已经给你看过示意图了"
    },
    {
      "start": 843.24,
      "end": 845.34,
      "text": "那个机架本身就是卫星"
    },
    {
      "start": 845.34,
      "end": 848.86,
      "text": "不过它的大小大概和一个Blackwell Rack差不多"
    },
    {
      "start": 848.86,
      "end": 850.16,
      "text": "它有太阳能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 850.16,
      "end": 852.8,
      "text": "两边可能各有500英尺长"
    },
    {
      "start": 852.8,
      "end": 855.08,
      "text": "你把它放在太阳同步轨道上"
    },
    {
      "start": 855.08,
      "end": 857.7,
      "text": "这样这些太阳能板就一直在太阳下面"
    },
    {
      "start": 857.7,
      "end": 860.58,
      "text": "而且因为它处在精确的太阳同步轨道上"
    },
    {
      "start": 860.58,
      "end": 864.5,
      "text": "散热器就可以从它后面延伸出去几百英尺"
    },
    {
      "start": 864.5,
      "end": 866.7800000000001,
      "text": "这是一个很常见的质疑"
    },
    {
      "start": 866.7800000000001,
      "end": 868.82,
      "text": "你打算怎么处理"
    },
    {
      "start": 868.82,
      "end": 871.2800000000001,
      "text": "这些年我在Starbase待了很多时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 871.2800000000001,
      "end": 873.72,
      "text": "也跟很多SpaceX工程师聊过"
    },
    {
      "start": 873.72,
      "end": 877.86,
      "text": "我确实认为这是地球上最有才华的一群工程师"
    },
    {
      "start": 877.86,
      "end": 880.9000000000001,
      "text": "他们非常有信心认为自己已经解决了这个问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 880.9000000000001,
      "end": 883.12,
      "text": "而且他们并不是总这么有信心"
    },
    {
      "start": 883.12,
      "end": 886.88,
      "text": "比如我觉得要把Starship变成火星殖民运输器"
    },
    {
      "start": 886.88,
      "end": 888.62,
      "text": "可能还需要一些工程工作"
    },
    {
      "start": 888.62,
      "end": 890.16,
      "text": "他们会做到吗"
    },
    {
      "start": 890.16,
      "end": 891.5600000000001,
      "text": "当然会"
    },
    {
      "start": 891.5600000000001,
      "end": 892.98,
      "text": "他们现在更关注什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 892.98,
      "end": 895.22,
      "text": "我会说可能是维修和维护"
    },
    {
      "start": 895.22,
      "end": 897.42,
      "text": "这是两个主要回应点"
    },
    {
      "start": 897.42,
      "end": 899.2,
      "text": "一个是散热器"
    },
    {
      "start": 899.2,
      "end": 902.52,
      "text": "另一个是如果机架里某个东西出了问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 902.52,
      "end": 903.36,
      "text": "要怎么维修"
    },
    {
      "start": 903.36,
      "end": 907.02,
      "text": "答案是在你大概拥有一对Optimus机器人之前"
    },
    {
      "start": 907.02,
      "end": 908.52,
      "text": "你其实做不到"
    },
    {
      "start": 908.52,
      "end": 909.92,
      "text": "不过我确实认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 909.92,
      "end": 912.68,
      "text": "Starship会以我们现在无法想象的方式"
    },
    {
      "start": 912.68,
      "end": 913.9599999999999,
      "text": "改变太空经济"
    },
    {
      "start": 913.9599999999999,
      "end": 917.0999999999999,
      "text": "尤其是如果监管开始限制数据中心"
    },
    {
      "start": 917.0999999999999,
      "end": 918.5799999999999,
      "text": "那别的都不重要了"
    },
    {
      "start": 918.5799999999999,
      "end": 920.8399999999999,
      "text": "你能造出多少orbital compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 920.8399999999999,
      "end": 922.0799999999999,
      "text": "就能卖出多少"
    },
    {
      "start": 922.0799999999999,
      "end": 923.9399999999999,
      "text": "然后很明显你会用激光"
    },
    {
      "start": 923.9399999999999,
      "end": 925.24,
      "text": "把这些rack连起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 925.24,
      "end": 927.02,
      "text": "激光在真空中传输"
    },
    {
      "start": 927.02,
      "end": 928.76,
      "text": "而每一颗Starlink上"
    },
    {
      "start": 928.76,
      "end": 930.02,
      "text": "现在已经有这种能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 930.02,
      "end": 931.5799999999999,
      "text": "让我觉得震撼的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 931.5799999999999,
      "end": 935.0,
      "text": "SpaceX运营着世界上最大的卫星星座"
    },
    {
      "start": 935.0,
      "end": 938.1999999999999,
      "text": "轨道上98%或99%的卫星"
    },
    {
      "start": 938.2,
      "end": 940.12,
      "text": "都是它的每一颗Starlink"
    },
    {
      "start": 940.12,
      "end": 942.0600000000001,
      "text": "他们今天都在给它散热"
    },
    {
      "start": 942.0600000000001,
      "end": 943.8000000000001,
      "text": "而且我认为Starlink V3"
    },
    {
      "start": 943.8000000000001,
      "end": 945.5600000000001,
      "text": "会以20千瓦运行"
    },
    {
      "start": 945.5600000000001,
      "end": 947.0600000000001,
      "text": "一个Blackwell Rack"
    },
    {
      "start": 947.0600000000001,
      "end": 948.38,
      "text": "也不过是100千瓦"
    },
    {
      "start": 948.38,
      "end": 949.6,
      "text": "人们经常谈密度"
    },
    {
      "start": 949.6,
      "end": 951.84,
      "text": "但如果你用激光穿过真空"
    },
    {
      "start": 951.84,
      "end": 952.94,
      "text": "来连接Rack"
    },
    {
      "start": 952.94,
      "end": 955.32,
      "text": "那你完全可以把Rack做得更大"
    },
    {
      "start": 955.32,
      "end": 956.2,
      "text": "从物理上说"
    },
    {
      "start": 956.2,
      "end": 958.1400000000001,
      "text": "在地球上的数据中心里"
    },
    {
      "start": 958.1400000000001,
      "end": 959.6600000000001,
      "text": "你关注的是尺寸"
    },
    {
      "start": 959.6600000000001,
      "end": 961.6,
      "text": "因为你要把Rack连接起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 961.6,
      "end": 962.62,
      "text": "最好用铜蓝"
    },
    {
      "start": 962.62,
      "end": 964.4000000000001,
      "text": "还要尽量缩短长度"
    },
    {
      "start": 964.4000000000001,
      "end": 965.1600000000001,
      "text": "等等等等"
    },
    {
      "start": 965.1600000000001,
      "end": 966.88,
      "text": "布线是一项很大的成本"
    },
    {
      "start": 966.88,
      "end": 969.48,
      "text": "所以你确实希望Rack尽量小"
    },
    {
      "start": 969.48,
      "end": 970.72,
      "text": "因为能用铜就用铜"
    },
    {
      "start": 970.72,
      "end": 972.86,
      "text": "必须用光纤时才用光纤"
    },
    {
      "start": 972.86,
      "end": 976.1,
      "text": "但在太空里SpaceX可以做各种事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 976.1,
      "end": 978.18,
      "text": "我觉得有些唱反调的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 978.18,
      "end": 979.92,
      "text": "可能根本没有考虑到这些"
    },
    {
      "start": 979.92,
      "end": 982.58,
      "text": "关键是他们运营的卫星比任何人都多"
    },
    {
      "start": 982.58,
      "end": 985.06,
      "text": "他们今天已经有20千瓦的卫星"
    },
    {
      "start": 985.06,
      "end": 988.66,
      "text": "所以也许一开始只是把它扩到60千瓦"
    },
    {
      "start": 988.66,
      "end": 990.4399999999999,
      "text": "他们看起来很有信心"
    },
    {
      "start": 990.4399999999999,
      "end": 993.06,
      "text": "可以直接做到100到120千瓦"
    },
    {
      "start": 993.06,
      "end": 994.76,
      "text": "而且同一家公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 994.76,
      "end": 997.04,
      "text": "现在还运营着地球上最大的数据中心"
    },
    {
      "start": 997.04,
      "end": 999.9399999999999,
      "text": "他们有世界上最好的硬件工程师"
    },
    {
      "start": 999.9399999999999,
      "end": 1001.4,
      "text": "与此同时"
    },
    {
      "start": 1001.4,
      "end": 1003.62,
      "text": "各种坐在扶手椅里怀疑的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1003.62,
      "end": 1005.26,
      "text": "几乎都没有聪明到"
    },
    {
      "start": 1005.26,
      "end": 1007.5,
      "text": "也没有务实到能在SpaceX工作"
    },
    {
      "start": 1007.5,
      "end": 1009.36,
      "text": "我不想引用Larry Ellison"
    },
    {
      "start": 1009.36,
      "end": 1011.16,
      "text": "但有人当时在表示怀疑"
    },
    {
      "start": 1011.16,
      "end": 1011.84,
      "text": "Larry就说"
    },
    {
      "start": 1011.84,
      "end": 1014.4399999999999,
      "text": "听着他正在外面让火箭着陆"
    },
    {
      "start": 1014.4399999999999,
      "end": 1016.98,
      "text": "我没看到别人能让火箭着陆"
    },
    {
      "start": 1016.98,
      "end": 1017.78,
      "text": "现实是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1017.78,
      "end": 1020.52,
      "text": "十年之后仍然没有任何其他公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 1020.52,
      "end": 1022.64,
      "text": "能够稳定的让轨道火箭着陆"
    },
    {
      "start": 1022.64,
      "end": 1024.64,
      "text": "并且完全重复使用"
    },
    {
      "start": 1024.64,
      "end": 1026.1200000000001,
      "text": "没有可重复使用"
    },
    {
      "start": 1026.1200000000001,
      "end": 1027.3600000000001,
      "text": "这整件事就不成立"
    },
    {
      "start": 1027.3600000000001,
      "end": 1028.26,
      "text": "也说不通"
    },
    {
      "start": 1028.26,
      "end": 1029.98,
      "text": "而可重复使用就意味着"
    },
    {
      "start": 1029.98,
      "end": 1031.3200000000002,
      "text": "你必须让它着陆"
    },
    {
      "start": 1031.3200000000002,
      "end": 1032.92,
      "text": "我想把orbital compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 1032.92,
      "end": 1034.22,
      "text": "重新定义一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 1034.22,
      "end": 1036.3200000000002,
      "text": "它是在太空里的rack"
    },
    {
      "start": 1036.3200000000002,
      "end": 1037.68,
      "text": "而不是在太空里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1037.68,
      "end": 1039.1000000000001,
      "text": "飘着的五角大楼"
    },
    {
      "start": 1039.1000000000001,
      "end": 1040.74,
      "text": "那么大的巨型数据中心"
    },
    {
      "start": 1040.74,
      "end": 1042.0400000000002,
      "text": "那种说法太荒唐了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1042.0400000000002,
      "end": 1043.38,
      "text": "但你可以这么理解"
    },
    {
      "start": 1043.38,
      "end": 1045.4,
      "text": "真正让它成为数据中心的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1045.4,
      "end": 1046.66,
      "text": "是你用激光"
    },
    {
      "start": 1046.66,
      "end": 1048.38,
      "text": "把这些rack连接起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1048.38,
      "end": 1050.22,
      "text": "所以它会是太空中的rack"
    },
    {
      "start": 1050.22,
      "end": 1053.0,
      "text": "通过激光连接成一个虚拟数据中心"
    },
    {
      "start": 1053.0,
      "end": 1055.26,
      "text": "如果你设想那样一个世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 1055.26,
      "end": 1057.08,
      "text": "假设这一切都发生了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1057.08,
      "end": 1059.24,
      "text": "而且我们能很经济的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1059.24,
      "end": 1060.48,
      "text": "把这些东西送上去"
    },
    {
      "start": 1060.48,
      "end": 1063.58,
      "text": "在太空各处运行举证惩罚"
    },
    {
      "start": 1063.58,
      "end": 1066.18,
      "text": "那对地面数据中心意味着什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 1066.18,
      "end": 1067.78,
      "text": "有人曾经说过"
    },
    {
      "start": 1067.78,
      "end": 1069.7,
      "text": "美国会尽最大努力"
    },
    {
      "start": 1069.7,
      "end": 1072.1,
      "text": "吸取它能拿到的每一种能源"
    },
    {
      "start": 1072.1,
      "end": 1073.74,
      "text": "我觉得computer也是一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 1073.74,
      "end": 1075.16,
      "text": "这也是为什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 1075.16,
      "end": 1077.22,
      "text": "我现在对Edge AI的空头逻辑"
    },
    {
      "start": 1077.22,
      "end": 1078.94,
      "text": "可能没有以前那么担心了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1078.94,
      "end": 1081.66,
      "text": "我们会消耗尽可能多的computer"
    },
    {
      "start": 1081.66,
      "end": 1084.72,
      "text": "我认为Inference非常适合Orbital Compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 1084.72,
      "end": 1086.74,
      "text": "但Training在很长一段时间里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1086.74,
      "end": 1088.16,
      "text": "还是会在地球上完成"
    },
    {
      "start": 1088.16,
      "end": 1091.3000000000002,
      "text": "所以我不觉得这对地面数据中心特别利空"
    },
    {
      "start": 1091.3000000000002,
      "end": 1093.5,
      "text": "我认为在我的有生之年"
    },
    {
      "start": 1093.5,
      "end": 1095.5,
      "text": "这些数据中心都会很有价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1095.5,
      "end": 1098.8600000000001,
      "text": "但如果你处在发电和冷却这个生态里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1098.8600000000001,
      "end": 1100.42,
      "text": "而且正在大幅扩产"
    },
    {
      "start": 1100.42,
      "end": 1103.44,
      "text": "那我确实认为值得认真想一想"
    },
    {
      "start": 1103.44,
      "end": 1105.94,
      "text": "因为很多新增产能投产的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1105.94,
      "end": 1108.14,
      "text": "可能正好也是那些可笑的怀疑者"
    },
    {
      "start": 1108.14,
      "end": 1110.24,
      "text": "开始明白Orbital Compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 1110.24,
      "end": 1111.44,
      "text": "真的很现实的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1111.44,
      "end": 1113.56,
      "text": "如果你是那些公司之一"
    },
    {
      "start": 1113.56,
      "end": 1116.3,
      "text": "我觉得这件事值得你反复认真思考"
    },
    {
      "start": 1116.3,
      "end": 1118.66,
      "text": "同时在这段过渡期里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1118.66,
      "end": 1120.68,
      "text": "也有各种很酷的事情发生"
    },
    {
      "start": 1120.68,
      "end": 1123.64,
      "text": "比如我们越来越擅长改造喷气发动机"
    },
    {
      "start": 1123.64,
      "end": 1125.88,
      "text": "Boom Aerospace就在做这类事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 1125.88,
      "end": 1129.5,
      "text": "所以在电力这边资本主义正在全力运转"
    },
    {
      "start": 1129.5,
      "end": 1131.64,
      "text": "但在晶圆这边情况不一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 1131.64,
      "end": 1134.18,
      "text": "那是一群在台湾兼任年长的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1134.18,
      "end": 1135.66,
      "text": "他们是台湾最重要的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1135.66,
      "end": 1139.88,
      "text": "他们占了台湾GDP用水量和用电量的压倒性份额"
    },
    {
      "start": 1139.88,
      "end": 1141.3000000000002,
      "text": "大家会谈到规遁"
    },
    {
      "start": 1141.3000000000002,
      "end": 1142.8200000000002,
      "text": "他们都把自己看作"
    },
    {
      "start": 1142.8200000000002,
      "end": 1145.1200000000001,
      "text": "Morris Chang神圣遗产的继承者"
    },
    {
      "start": 1145.1200000000001,
      "end": 1146.98,
      "text": "我很清楚的记得"
    },
    {
      "start": 1146.98,
      "end": 1149.44,
      "text": "20多年前我去科学园去拜访他们"
    },
    {
      "start": 1149.44,
      "end": 1149.96,
      "text": "问他们"
    },
    {
      "start": 1149.96,
      "end": 1152.0800000000002,
      "text": "你们觉得自己能追上Intel吗"
    },
    {
      "start": 1152.0800000000002,
      "end": 1152.7600000000002,
      "text": "他们说"
    },
    {
      "start": 1152.7600000000002,
      "end": 1154.7,
      "text": "这是一个非常美丽的梦想"
    },
    {
      "start": 1154.7,
      "end": 1156.98,
      "text": "但这是给我们孙辈的梦想"
    },
    {
      "start": 1156.98,
      "end": 1158.6000000000001,
      "text": "后来他们做到了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1158.6000000000001,
      "end": 1161.8000000000002,
      "text": "部分原因是Intel自己犯了很多错误"
    },
    {
      "start": 1161.8000000000002,
      "end": 1164.44,
      "text": "但也因为他们的思维方式非常不一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 1164.44,
      "end": 1166.48,
      "text": "Jensen经常飞去台湾"
    },
    {
      "start": 1166.48,
      "end": 1167.92,
      "text": "其中一个原因就是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1167.92,
      "end": 1169.3400000000001,
      "text": "他希望他们扩大产能"
    },
    {
      "start": 1169.34,
      "end": 1171.4599999999998,
      "text": "我确实觉得很不可思议"
    },
    {
      "start": 1171.4599999999998,
      "end": 1174.22,
      "text": "Jensen从来没有和台积电签过合同"
    },
    {
      "start": 1174.22,
      "end": 1175.6599999999999,
      "text": "他们做生意靠的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1175.6599999999999,
      "end": 1178.0,
      "text": "看起来公平的安排和握手承诺"
    },
    {
      "start": 1178.0,
      "end": 1179.4199999999998,
      "text": "这太有意思了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1179.4199999999998,
      "end": 1180.4399999999998,
      "text": "没有合同"
    },
    {
      "start": 1180.4399999999998,
      "end": 1182.34,
      "text": "大家相信长期来看会公平"
    },
    {
      "start": 1182.34,
      "end": 1184.58,
      "text": "我们是伙伴会公平对待彼此"
    },
    {
      "start": 1184.58,
      "end": 1185.52,
      "text": "事实是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1185.52,
      "end": 1189.04,
      "text": "按照过去每一次基础性新技术的市场先例"
    },
    {
      "start": 1189.04,
      "end": 1191.76,
      "text": "像AI这样的技术总是会出现泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 1191.76,
      "end": 1194.4399999999998,
      "text": "Carlotta Press写过一本很棒的书"
    },
    {
      "start": 1194.4399999999998,
      "end": 1195.3,
      "text": "讲的就是这个"
    },
    {
      "start": 1195.3,
      "end": 1197.1,
      "text": "基本上市场是有效的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1197.3,
      "end": 1198.58,
      "text": "市场正确理解了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1198.58,
      "end": 1200.1399999999999,
      "text": "这是一项基础性新技术"
    },
    {
      "start": 1200.1399999999999,
      "end": 1203.22,
      "text": "这就出现了Mobileson所说的多样性崩塌"
    },
    {
      "start": 1203.22,
      "end": 1206.22,
      "text": "所有人都会开始看多这项新技术"
    },
    {
      "start": 1206.22,
      "end": 1208.52,
      "text": "而我现在有点担心市场会出现"
    },
    {
      "start": 1208.52,
      "end": 1209.8999999999999,
      "text": "共识过于一致的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 1209.8999999999999,
      "end": 1211.96,
      "text": "接着就会出现泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 1211.96,
      "end": 1214.9399999999998,
      "text": "这个泡沫会为新技术的建设买单"
    },
    {
      "start": 1214.9399999999998,
      "end": 1217.06,
      "text": "但供给会跑到需求前面"
    },
    {
      "start": 1217.06,
      "end": 1218.12,
      "text": "然后就会崩盘"
    },
    {
      "start": 1218.12,
      "end": 1221.0,
      "text": "如果这种建设是靠债务推动的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1221.0,
      "end": 1223.48,
      "text": "比如2000年那样崩盘就会特别严重"
    },
    {
      "start": 1223.48,
      "end": 1226.36,
      "text": "现在这一轮建设有一点让我很高兴"
    },
    {
      "start": 1226.36,
      "end": 1227.1799999999998,
      "text": "也很重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 1227.18,
      "end": 1229.38,
      "text": "就是它到目前为止"
    },
    {
      "start": 1229.38,
      "end": 1232.28,
      "text": "绝大部分还是用经营现金流来融资"
    },
    {
      "start": 1232.28,
      "end": 1234.2,
      "text": "这和2000年相比"
    },
    {
      "start": 1234.2,
      "end": 1236.0800000000002,
      "text": "是一个非常重要的基本差异"
    },
    {
      "start": 1236.0800000000002,
      "end": 1237.74,
      "text": "还有估值上的差异"
    },
    {
      "start": 1237.74,
      "end": 1239.02,
      "text": "还有一个事实是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1239.02,
      "end": 1242.7,
      "text": "现在每一块GPU都在100%利用率运行"
    },
    {
      "start": 1242.7,
      "end": 1245.72,
      "text": "而当年99%的光纤都没有被使用"
    },
    {
      "start": 1245.72,
      "end": 1248.0600000000002,
      "text": "所以这里面有很多基本面的不同"
    },
    {
      "start": 1248.0600000000002,
      "end": 1249.6200000000001,
      "text": "但我们还是得记住"
    },
    {
      "start": 1249.6200000000001,
      "end": 1251.76,
      "text": "历史不会简单重复"
    },
    {
      "start": 1251.76,
      "end": 1252.52,
      "text": "但会押运"
    },
    {
      "start": 1252.52,
      "end": 1253.8200000000002,
      "text": "作为投资者"
    },
    {
      "start": 1253.8200000000002,
      "end": 1256.0600000000002,
      "text": "我们必须非常清醒的意识到这一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1256.06,
      "end": 1257.72,
      "text": "而且要认识到"
    },
    {
      "start": 1257.72,
      "end": 1260.0,
      "text": "从过去两三百年的历史看"
    },
    {
      "start": 1260.0,
      "end": 1261.6,
      "text": "先别说互联网泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 1261.6,
      "end": 1263.04,
      "text": "我们有过铁路泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 1263.04,
      "end": 1264.3999999999999,
      "text": "也有过运河泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 1264.3999999999999,
      "end": 1266.72,
      "text": "所以我们应该预期会有泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 1266.72,
      "end": 1267.44,
      "text": "这很可怕"
    },
    {
      "start": 1267.44,
      "end": 1268.72,
      "text": "没有人想要泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 1268.72,
      "end": 1270.28,
      "text": "泡沫是很糟糕的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1270.28,
      "end": 1271.6,
      "text": "糟糕的原因在于"
    },
    {
      "start": 1271.6,
      "end": 1273.22,
      "text": "如果你对估值敏感"
    },
    {
      "start": 1273.22,
      "end": 1274.78,
      "text": "你就会大幅跑输"
    },
    {
      "start": 1274.78,
      "end": 1277.1799999999998,
      "text": "然后很可能被所有客户解雇"
    },
    {
      "start": 1277.1799999999998,
      "end": 1279.76,
      "text": "George Vander Hayden已经不在了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1279.76,
      "end": 1282.24,
      "text": "他是非常出色的Fidelity基金经理"
    },
    {
      "start": 1282.24,
      "end": 1284.56,
      "text": "他在1999年和泡沫对抗"
    },
    {
      "start": 1284.56,
      "end": 1286.52,
      "text": "然后在2000年初退休了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1286.52,
      "end": 1288.48,
      "text": "因为我觉得他真的扛不住了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1288.48,
      "end": 1290.08,
      "text": "他知道市场是错的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1290.08,
      "end": 1291.8,
      "text": "但他的客户非常怀疑他"
    },
    {
      "start": 1291.8,
      "end": 1293.6,
      "text": "George你跟不上时代了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1293.6,
      "end": 1294.02,
      "text": "你不懂"
    },
    {
      "start": 1294.02,
      "end": 1296.1799999999998,
      "text": "他当时已经满头白发"
    },
    {
      "start": 1296.1799999999998,
      "end": 1298.6599999999999,
      "text": "他真的是一位很了不起的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1298.6599999999999,
      "end": 1300.82,
      "text": "我和他共事的时间很短"
    },
    {
      "start": 1300.82,
      "end": 1302.26,
      "text": "但他是我的好朋友"
    },
    {
      "start": 1302.26,
      "end": 1303.1599999999999,
      "text": "也是我的导师"
    },
    {
      "start": 1303.1599999999999,
      "end": 1304.1399999999999,
      "text": "Jennifer UIG"
    },
    {
      "start": 1304.1399999999999,
      "end": 1305.9199999999998,
      "text": "非常重要的导师和朋友"
    },
    {
      "start": 1305.9199999999998,
      "end": 1308.62,
      "text": "所以我身上通过他继承了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1308.62,
      "end": 1310.1599999999999,
      "text": "很多Vander Heiden的影响"
    },
    {
      "start": 1310.1599999999999,
      "end": 1311.56,
      "text": "也就是同一个人说过"
    },
    {
      "start": 1311.56,
      "end": 1313.7,
      "text": "太早合错了是一回事"
    },
    {
      "start": 1313.7,
      "end": 1314.48,
      "text": "George"
    },
    {
      "start": 1314.48,
      "end": 1316.68,
      "text": "退休是因为他承受不了跑输"
    },
    {
      "start": 1316.68,
      "end": 1317.48,
      "text": "也承受不了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1317.48,
      "end": 1319.28,
      "text": "客户一直说你到底怎么了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1319.28,
      "end": 1320.02,
      "text": "你不懂"
    },
    {
      "start": 1320.02,
      "end": 1322.82,
      "text": "他大概把基金的40%投在烟草"
    },
    {
      "start": 1322.82,
      "end": 1324.9,
      "text": "40%投在住宅建筑商"
    },
    {
      "start": 1324.9,
      "end": 1326.5,
      "text": "结果他确实跑输了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1326.5,
      "end": 1328.76,
      "text": "但在接下来三年里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1328.76,
      "end": 1330.5,
      "text": "他相对于NAC的表现"
    },
    {
      "start": 1330.5,
      "end": 1332.02,
      "text": "可能好出20倍到30倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1332.02,
      "end": 1333.64,
      "text": "我之前一直比较乐观"
    },
    {
      "start": 1333.64,
      "end": 1335.8,
      "text": "认为晶圆的根本性短缺"
    },
    {
      "start": 1335.8,
      "end": 1337.06,
      "text": "会阻止泡沫出现"
    },
    {
      "start": 1337.06,
      "end": 1338.84,
      "text": "而今天这个短缺"
    },
    {
      "start": 1338.84,
      "end": 1340.6200000000001,
      "text": "基本由TSMC控制"
    },
    {
      "start": 1340.6200000000001,
      "end": 1342.46,
      "text": "如果TSMC按Jensen"
    },
    {
      "start": 1342.46,
      "end": 1343.72,
      "text": "想要的方式去做"
    },
    {
      "start": 1343.72,
      "end": 1346.22,
      "text": "我觉得NVIDIA在2026年"
    },
    {
      "start": 1346.22,
      "end": 1347.06,
      "text": "或者2026"
    },
    {
      "start": 1347.06,
      "end": 1348.1000000000001,
      "text": "2027年"
    },
    {
      "start": 1348.1000000000001,
      "end": 1349.92,
      "text": "可以卖出2万亿美元的GPU"
    },
    {
      "start": 1349.92,
      "end": 1351.78,
      "text": "也许是2.5万亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1351.78,
      "end": 1353.06,
      "text": "也许是3万亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1353.06,
      "end": 1354.92,
      "text": "但总会有一个上限"
    },
    {
      "start": 1354.92,
      "end": 1357.58,
      "text": "如果消费者消化了这么多产能"
    },
    {
      "start": 1357.58,
      "end": 1359.42,
      "text": "你很可能就已经过度建设了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1359.42,
      "end": 1361.58,
      "text": "所以如果我们最后没有泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 1361.58,
      "end": 1364.18,
      "text": "那真的应该给TSMC开个庆功会"
    },
    {
      "start": 1364.18,
      "end": 1366.72,
      "text": "因为他们将会是单凭一己之力"
    },
    {
      "start": 1366.72,
      "end": 1368.04,
      "text": "阻止泡沫的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1368.04,
      "end": 1370.3,
      "text": "现在你已经开始看到一些公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 1370.3,
      "end": 1371.98,
      "text": "去找Intel和Samsung"
    },
    {
      "start": 1371.98,
      "end": 1375.02,
      "text": "我们先假设和潜在需求相比"
    },
    {
      "start": 1375.02,
      "end": 1377.26,
      "text": "TSMC的供给一直非常紧张"
    },
    {
      "start": 1377.26,
      "end": 1378.28,
      "text": "那会发生什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 1378.28,
      "end": 1380.1200000000001,
      "text": "从市场历史看"
    },
    {
      "start": 1380.1200000000001,
      "end": 1381.38,
      "text": "我不知道具体是谁"
    },
    {
      "start": 1381.38,
      "end": 1383.14,
      "text": "但Intel和Samsung里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 1383.14,
      "end": 1385.32,
      "text": "总有一家不会一直保持纪律"
    },
    {
      "start": 1385.32,
      "end": 1387.58,
      "text": "他们会先松动到某个程度"
    },
    {
      "start": 1387.58,
      "end": 1390.02,
      "text": "这会迫使其他所有人也跟着松动"
    },
    {
      "start": 1390.02,
      "end": 1392.02,
      "text": "所以我觉得这里面很大一部分"
    },
    {
      "start": 1392.02,
      "end": 1393.4,
      "text": "可能取决于TSMC"
    },
    {
      "start": 1393.4,
      "end": 1395.84,
      "text": "能在多大程度上继续保持"
    },
    {
      "start": 1395.84,
      "end": 1398.46,
      "text": "相对于Intel和Samsung的人才领先"
    },
    {
      "start": 1398.46,
      "end": 1399.34,
      "text": "你得记住"
    },
    {
      "start": 1399.34,
      "end": 1400.3600000000001,
      "text": "不管具体是多少"
    },
    {
      "start": 1400.36,
      "end": 1402.82,
      "text": "9个月12个月15个月"
    },
    {
      "start": 1402.82,
      "end": 1405.86,
      "text": "它都是一个领先节点上的差距"
    },
    {
      "start": 1405.86,
      "end": 1407.9799999999998,
      "text": "你是说领先节点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1407.9799999999998,
      "end": 1408.4799999999998,
      "text": "没错"
    },
    {
      "start": 1408.4799999999998,
      "end": 1411.3,
      "text": "还有他们扩张产能的速度"
    },
    {
      "start": 1411.3,
      "end": 1414.1999999999998,
      "text": "如果我只看一件事来判断有没有泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 1414.1999999999998,
      "end": 1416.54,
      "text": "那就是TSMC的产能决策"
    },
    {
      "start": 1416.54,
      "end": 1418.6999999999998,
      "text": "我觉得有一个刚刚好的区间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1418.6999999999998,
      "end": 1420.3999999999999,
      "text": "TSMC扩的足够多"
    },
    {
      "start": 1420.3999999999999,
      "end": 1424.76,
      "text": "让Intel或桑松很难真正成为一个有规模的第二来源"
    },
    {
      "start": 1424.76,
      "end": 1427.6399999999999,
      "text": "也就是市场份额远高于30%的那种"
    },
    {
      "start": 1427.6399999999999,
      "end": 1428.8,
      "text": "但与此同时"
    },
    {
      "start": 1428.8,
      "end": 1431.22,
      "text": "他们也继续保留金元上的根本约束"
    },
    {
      "start": 1431.22,
      "end": 1432.68,
      "text": "帮助我们避免泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 1432.68,
      "end": 1435.54,
      "text": "当然我也觉得Terrafab会参与到这件事里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1435.54,
      "end": 1440.12,
      "text": "Terafab是SpaceX的项目"
    },
    {
      "start": 1440.12,
      "end": 1441.82,
      "text": "我相信Tesla也参与了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1441.82,
      "end": 1443.3999999999999,
      "text": "是一个合资项目"
    },
    {
      "start": 1443.3999999999999,
      "end": 1445.54,
      "text": "要在美国建设世界上最大的Fab"
    },
    {
      "start": 1445.54,
      "end": 1447.04,
      "text": "我觉得他们会成功"
    },
    {
      "start": 1447.04,
      "end": 1448.94,
      "text": "第一他们和Intel有合作"
    },
    {
      "start": 1448.94,
      "end": 1450.04,
      "text": "这非常重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 1450.04,
      "end": 1452.82,
      "text": "因为他们能接触到50年的组织知识"
    },
    {
      "start": 1452.82,
      "end": 1455.28,
      "text": "而这些知识只比最前沿落后"
    },
    {
      "start": 1455.28,
      "end": 1457.0,
      "text": "9个月几个季度"
    },
    {
      "start": 1457.0,
      "end": 1458.98,
      "text": "12个月或者3到5个季度"
    },
    {
      "start": 1458.98,
      "end": 1460.26,
      "text": "这是一个优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 1460.26,
      "end": 1461.64,
      "text": "另一个优势是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1461.64,
      "end": 1463.5,
      "text": "我相信Terraflab会得到"
    },
    {
      "start": 1463.5,
      "end": 1465.68,
      "text": "所有半导体设备公司的关注"
    },
    {
      "start": 1465.68,
      "end": 1467.8,
      "text": "TSMC当年能追上来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1467.8,
      "end": 1469.44,
      "text": "一个很重要的原因是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1469.44,
      "end": 1471.72,
      "text": "ASML Latin Curve LAM Research"
    },
    {
      "start": 1471.72,
      "end": 1472.8,
      "text": "和Applied Materials"
    },
    {
      "start": 1472.8,
      "end": 1474.24,
      "text": "都希望他们追上来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1474.24,
      "end": 1475.54,
      "text": "这些公司不喜欢"
    },
    {
      "start": 1475.54,
      "end": 1476.64,
      "text": "只有一个买方的局面"
    },
    {
      "start": 1476.64,
      "end": 1479.1,
      "text": "所以ATEM当时都在台湾工作"
    },
    {
      "start": 1479.1,
      "end": 1481.3,
      "text": "直到Intel犯了一些错误"
    },
    {
      "start": 1481.3,
      "end": 1482.52,
      "text": "局面一下就变了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1482.52,
      "end": 1484.9,
      "text": "因为Elan在硬件工程上的生育"
    },
    {
      "start": 1484.9,
      "end": 1486.6,
      "text": "这些ATEM也会来这里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1486.6,
      "end": 1489.34,
      "text": "而且在美国可能有些人很难想象这一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1489.34,
      "end": 1492.04,
      "text": "因为政治已经取代了宗教"
    },
    {
      "start": 1492.04,
      "end": 1493.6399999999999,
      "text": "伊朗之前涉足政治"
    },
    {
      "start": 1493.6399999999999,
      "end": 1496.1799999999998,
      "text": "这让美国一些人很难清楚的看待他"
    },
    {
      "start": 1496.1799999999998,
      "end": 1497.36,
      "text": "这挺可惜的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1497.36,
      "end": 1499.9399999999998,
      "text": "因为我确实认为他为美国做的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 1499.9399999999998,
      "end": 1501.78,
      "text": "可能比任何其他美国人都多"
    },
    {
      "start": 1501.78,
      "end": 1504.9599999999998,
      "text": "他几乎是单枪匹马的把制造业带回美国"
    },
    {
      "start": 1504.9599999999998,
      "end": 1506.6999999999998,
      "text": "他也复兴了defense tech"
    },
    {
      "start": 1506.6999999999998,
      "end": 1509.06,
      "text": "SpaceX在某种意义上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1509.06,
      "end": 1511.82,
      "text": "是美国最重要的国防承包商"
    },
    {
      "start": 1512.04,
      "end": 1515.12,
      "text": "他用Starlink做的事情对全世界都很了不起"
    },
    {
      "start": 1515.12,
      "end": 1517.58,
      "text": "他创造了这么多蓝领制造业岗位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1517.58,
      "end": 1520.08,
      "text": "我觉得这本来就是很多自由派的目标"
    },
    {
      "start": 1520.08,
      "end": 1521.8999999999999,
      "text": "而且这对美国有好处"
    },
    {
      "start": 1521.8999999999999,
      "end": 1524.7199999999998,
      "text": "在推动全球脱碳这件事上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1524.7199999999998,
      "end": 1526.8999999999999,
      "text": "他做的比任何在世的人都多"
    },
    {
      "start": 1526.8999999999999,
      "end": 1528.82,
      "text": "如果你出于环保原因"
    },
    {
      "start": 1528.82,
      "end": 1530.62,
      "text": "对地球上的data center不满"
    },
    {
      "start": 1530.62,
      "end": 1531.9399999999998,
      "text": "那这就是一个答案"
    },
    {
      "start": 1531.9399999999998,
      "end": 1533.1999999999998,
      "text": "所以这很可惜"
    },
    {
      "start": 1533.1999999999998,
      "end": 1536.1999999999998,
      "text": "但在中国台湾韩国和日本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1536.1999999999998,
      "end": 1538.58,
      "text": "他就是一个活着的神一样的人物"
    },
    {
      "start": 1538.58,
      "end": 1540.1,
      "text": "我观察他很久了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1540.1,
      "end": 1542.54,
      "text": "他接下来会做的就是招到最好的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1542.54,
      "end": 1544.1799999999998,
      "text": "因为最优秀的工程师"
    },
    {
      "start": 1544.18,
      "end": 1545.7,
      "text": "都想为Elon工作"
    },
    {
      "start": 1545.7,
      "end": 1547.44,
      "text": "尤其是硬件工程师"
    },
    {
      "start": 1547.44,
      "end": 1549.52,
      "text": "他会招来非常厉害的工程师"
    },
    {
      "start": 1549.52,
      "end": 1551.66,
      "text": "然后他们会在Terrafab旁边"
    },
    {
      "start": 1551.66,
      "end": 1552.98,
      "text": "建一个台湾城"
    },
    {
      "start": 1552.98,
      "end": 1555.94,
      "text": "他会说这些是你们最喜欢的餐厅"
    },
    {
      "start": 1555.94,
      "end": 1557.8,
      "text": "我把他们和全体员工"
    },
    {
      "start": 1557.8,
      "end": 1559.02,
      "text": "从台湾搬到德州"
    },
    {
      "start": 1559.02,
      "end": 1561.8200000000002,
      "text": "我们把一切都做成你们喜欢的样子"
    },
    {
      "start": 1561.8200000000002,
      "end": 1563.7,
      "text": "然后还会有日本城也是一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 1563.7,
      "end": 1564.6000000000001,
      "text": "还会有韩国城"
    },
    {
      "start": 1564.6000000000001,
      "end": 1566.48,
      "text": "所有这些都会非常到位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1566.48,
      "end": 1569.24,
      "text": "目的就是招到最好的工程师"
    },
    {
      "start": 1569.24,
      "end": 1572.8,
      "text": "这就不是现在管理Intel那些人的思路"
    },
    {
      "start": 1572.8,
      "end": 1575.1,
      "text": "所以他会拥有最好的人才"
    },
    {
      "start": 1575.1,
      "end": 1578.34,
      "text": "他会拿到WiFi Equipment公司的一线团队"
    },
    {
      "start": 1578.34,
      "end": 1579.54,
      "text": "他还有Intel"
    },
    {
      "start": 1579.54,
      "end": 1580.26,
      "text": "这很重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 1580.26,
      "end": 1583.9199999999998,
      "text": "这对任何一届政府的政治目标都太有利了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1583.9199999999998,
      "end": 1585.86,
      "text": "而且我觉得他足够不一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 1585.86,
      "end": 1587.5,
      "text": "不会让台湾Semi翻杆"
    },
    {
      "start": 1587.5,
      "end": 1589.72,
      "text": "这些项目的周期都很长"
    },
    {
      "start": 1589.72,
      "end": 1590.1599999999999,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1590.1599999999999,
      "end": 1594.28,
      "text": "所以Terrafab要真正开始大量生产NVIDIA GPU"
    },
    {
      "start": 1594.28,
      "end": 1595.84,
      "text": "或者别的什么芯片"
    },
    {
      "start": 1595.84,
      "end": 1597.7,
      "text": "那也是很久以后的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 1597.7,
      "end": 1600.3,
      "text": "伊朗做事通常和别人不一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 1600.3,
      "end": 1603.08,
      "text": "别人建一个data center要花三年"
    },
    {
      "start": 1603.08,
      "end": 1605.12,
      "text": "他用122天就建好了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1605.12,
      "end": 1607.68,
      "text": "一个Samsung在德州的Fabry"
    },
    {
      "start": 1607.68,
      "end": 1609.4199999999998,
      "text": "不得不给他安排一个办公室"
    },
    {
      "start": 1609.4199999999998,
      "end": 1611.7,
      "text": "因为他对他们扩建厂房的速度"
    },
    {
      "start": 1611.7,
      "end": 1612.6399999999999,
      "text": "非常不满意"
    },
    {
      "start": 1612.6399999999999,
      "end": 1613.6399999999999,
      "text": "我们走着看"
    },
    {
      "start": 1613.6399999999999,
      "end": 1616.1399999999999,
      "text": "你前面提到过deep seek"
    },
    {
      "start": 1616.1399999999999,
      "end": 1618.28,
      "text": "大家当时一个很简单的反应是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1618.28,
      "end": 1618.94,
      "text": "好吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 1618.94,
      "end": 1620.56,
      "text": "这些模型会变成这样"
    },
    {
      "start": 1620.56,
      "end": 1623.3799999999999,
      "text": "效果达到前沿模型的95%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1623.3799999999999,
      "end": 1625.52,
      "text": "但成本只是很小一部分"
    },
    {
      "start": 1625.52,
      "end": 1628.34,
      "text": "是蒸馏出来的中国开源模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 1628.34,
      "end": 1631.24,
      "text": "也就是说我们大多数想做的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 1631.24,
      "end": 1632.82,
      "text": "都可以用这些模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 1632.82,
      "end": 1634.1,
      "text": "时间往前推一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1634.1,
      "end": 1635.36,
      "text": "比如两年后"
    },
    {
      "start": 1635.36,
      "end": 1637.08,
      "text": "我这种小公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 1637.08,
      "end": 1639.82,
      "text": "没有理由每年花100万美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1639.82,
      "end": 1641.4199999999998,
      "text": "买token之类的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 1641.4199999999998,
      "end": 1643.8799999999999,
      "text": "但实际情况看起来和这个判断"
    },
    {
      "start": 1643.8799999999999,
      "end": 1645.1799999999998,
      "text": "很不一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 1645.1799999999998,
      "end": 1647.1599999999999,
      "text": "我很好奇在你看来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1647.1599999999999,
      "end": 1648.48,
      "text": "为什么会有这种落差"
    },
    {
      "start": 1648.48,
      "end": 1651.82,
      "text": "我觉得最有意思的是前沿模型的回报"
    },
    {
      "start": 1651.82,
      "end": 1653.8999999999999,
      "text": "在模型层AI的经济回报"
    },
    {
      "start": 1653.8999999999999,
      "end": 1654.86,
      "text": "不是全部"
    },
    {
      "start": 1654.86,
      "end": 1657.3999999999999,
      "text": "但绝大部分都发生在前沿模型上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1657.4,
      "end": 1658.74,
      "text": "这让我很意外"
    },
    {
      "start": 1658.74,
      "end": 1660.42,
      "text": "我觉得很多人也很意外"
    },
    {
      "start": 1660.42,
      "end": 1661.96,
      "text": "我认为这是最重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 1661.96,
      "end": 1663.98,
      "text": "最需要回答的问题之一"
    },
    {
      "start": 1663.98,
      "end": 1665.0400000000002,
      "text": "作为投资者"
    },
    {
      "start": 1665.0400000000002,
      "end": 1666.8200000000002,
      "text": "你必须对此有一个假设"
    },
    {
      "start": 1666.8200000000002,
      "end": 1669.16,
      "text": "Frontier Token会不会继续拿走"
    },
    {
      "start": 1669.16,
      "end": 1671.5800000000002,
      "text": "模型层创造出来的绝大部分经济价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 1671.5800000000002,
      "end": 1673.0,
      "text": "这确实很意外"
    },
    {
      "start": 1673.0,
      "end": 1675.18,
      "text": "我还记得Gemini 3.1 Pro"
    },
    {
      "start": 1675.18,
      "end": 1676.5600000000002,
      "text": "刚出来的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1676.5600000000002,
      "end": 1678.0,
      "text": "它让我非常震撼"
    },
    {
      "start": 1678.0,
      "end": 1678.74,
      "text": "太好了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1678.74,
      "end": 1681.48,
      "text": "但今天再用它已经让人受不了了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1681.48,
      "end": 1682.3600000000001,
      "text": "真的受不了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1682.3600000000001,
      "end": 1684.52,
      "text": "这里可能也有一点动态变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 1684.52,
      "end": 1686.8600000000001,
      "text": "公司会先用前沿模型做prototype"
    },
    {
      "start": 1686.86,
      "end": 1688.6,
      "text": "等真正上线生产时"
    },
    {
      "start": 1688.6,
      "end": 1690.1599999999999,
      "text": "你会听到很多人改用working"
    },
    {
      "start": 1690.1599999999999,
      "end": 1691.3999999999999,
      "text": "或者用开源模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 1691.3999999999999,
      "end": 1694.6,
      "text": "但今天的事实仍然是这些经济回报的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1694.6,
      "end": 1696.6799999999998,
      "text": "绝大部分来自frontier token"
    },
    {
      "start": 1696.6799999999998,
      "end": 1698.1,
      "text": "这很意外"
    },
    {
      "start": 1698.1,
      "end": 1699.6599999999999,
      "text": "它会不会持续下去"
    },
    {
      "start": 1699.6599999999999,
      "end": 1701.62,
      "text": "我觉得是一个非常有意思的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 1701.62,
      "end": 1704.56,
      "text": "因为我经历过Gemini 3.1再到Opus"
    },
    {
      "start": 1704.56,
      "end": 1706.9399999999998,
      "text": "所以我现在对这个问题开放的多"
    },
    {
      "start": 1706.9399999999998,
      "end": 1709.4199999999998,
      "text": "然后我也会用Grok 4.3"
    },
    {
      "start": 1709.4199999999998,
      "end": 1711.8999999999999,
      "text": "它确实在Peritone Frontier上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1711.8999999999999,
      "end": 1713.36,
      "text": "顺便说一句"
    },
    {
      "start": 1713.36,
      "end": 1715.28,
      "text": "处在Peritone Frontier上的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 1715.28,
      "end": 1716.82,
      "text": "已经发生了很大变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 1716.82,
      "end": 1719.1399999999999,
      "text": "这也是我们上次讨论内容的一个后果"
    },
    {
      "start": 1719.1399999999999,
      "end": 1721.54,
      "text": "Google因为在TPU VA上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1721.54,
      "end": 1723.8,
      "text": "做了非常保守的设计选择"
    },
    {
      "start": 1723.8,
      "end": 1725.4399999999998,
      "text": "试图把一部分控制权"
    },
    {
      "start": 1725.4399999999998,
      "end": 1727.96,
      "text": "从Broadcom和NVIDIA手里拿回来"
    },
    {
      "start": 1727.96,
      "end": 1731.26,
      "text": "结果失去了每Token成本上的领先地位"
    },
    {
      "start": 1731.26,
      "end": 1733.98,
      "text": "而NVIDIA还在继续做激进选择"
    },
    {
      "start": 1733.98,
      "end": 1736.0,
      "text": "过去Google主导了Parrot of Frontier"
    },
    {
      "start": 1736.0,
      "end": 1737.76,
      "text": "这里说的Parrot of Frontier"
    },
    {
      "start": 1737.76,
      "end": 1740.28,
      "text": "是智能水平和成本之间的关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 1740.28,
      "end": 1742.04,
      "text": "我觉得这是分析AI Labs"
    },
    {
      "start": 1742.04,
      "end": 1743.58,
      "text": "是最重要的观察指标"
    },
    {
      "start": 1743.58,
      "end": 1745.8799999999999,
      "text": "9个月前Google主导了这条曲线"
    },
    {
      "start": 1745.88,
      "end": 1747.96,
      "text": "在Pyrido Frontier的每一个点上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1747.96,
      "end": 1751.14,
      "text": "OpenAI, AssetAI和Anthropic都在它里面"
    },
    {
      "start": 1751.14,
      "end": 1754.92,
      "text": "现在Pyrido Frontier主要由Anthropic和OpenAI主导"
    },
    {
      "start": 1754.92,
      "end": 1758.0200000000002,
      "text": "然后Grok 4.3也在Pyrido Frontier上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1758.0200000000002,
      "end": 1759.44,
      "text": "它很明显是成本最低"
    },
    {
      "start": 1759.44,
      "end": 1761.5600000000002,
      "text": "效果最好的5000亿参数模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 1761.5600000000002,
      "end": 1764.5600000000002,
      "text": "然后Gemini 3.1还勉强挂在Pyrido Frontier上"
    },
    {
      "start": 1764.5600000000002,
      "end": 1765.72,
      "text": "如果让我下注"
    },
    {
      "start": 1765.72,
      "end": 1768.64,
      "text": "我会赌他们是出于面子在补贴这个价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 1768.64,
      "end": 1769.3200000000002,
      "text": "我会这么说"
    },
    {
      "start": 1769.3200000000002,
      "end": 1770.0800000000002,
      "text": "第一"
    },
    {
      "start": 1770.0800000000002,
      "end": 1772.5600000000002,
      "text": "Richard Sutton的Bitter Lesson"
    },
    {
      "start": 1772.5600000000002,
      "end": 1773.6000000000001,
      "text": "如果被违反"
    },
    {
      "start": 1773.6,
      "end": 1776.06,
      "text": "那肯定是这笔交易最大的风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 1776.06,
      "end": 1777.9399999999998,
      "text": "也是整个AI最大的风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 1777.9399999999998,
      "end": 1780.04,
      "text": "现在一个人离AI越近"
    },
    {
      "start": 1780.04,
      "end": 1781.8,
      "text": "就越怀疑这种情况会发生"
    },
    {
      "start": 1781.8,
      "end": 1784.6799999999998,
      "text": "我觉得三月份市场走弱的一个原因"
    },
    {
      "start": 1784.6799999999998,
      "end": 1788.1799999999998,
      "text": "是出现了一个更蠢得多的DeepSeek版本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1788.1799999999998,
      "end": 1790.1,
      "text": "也就是一个叫TurboQuant的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 1790.1,
      "end": 1792.48,
      "text": "TurboQuant是Google的一种内存优化"
    },
    {
      "start": 1792.48,
      "end": 1794.0,
      "text": "一年前有篇论文写过"
    },
    {
      "start": 1794.0,
      "end": 1796.1599999999999,
      "text": "当时Google正在和Micron"
    },
    {
      "start": 1796.1599999999999,
      "end": 1797.9599999999998,
      "text": "Samsung Hynix谈协议"
    },
    {
      "start": 1797.9599999999998,
      "end": 1798.9599999999998,
      "text": "想签一些LTA"
    },
    {
      "start": 1798.9599999999998,
      "end": 1801.62,
      "text": "把很高的价格锁定很长时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1801.62,
      "end": 1802.78,
      "text": "就在谈判中间"
    },
    {
      "start": 1802.78,
      "end": 1804.04,
      "text": "他们发布了这个东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 1804.04,
      "end": 1805.42,
      "text": "人们实际做什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 1805.42,
      "end": 1807.16,
      "text": "总是比他们说什么更重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 1807.16,
      "end": 1809.2,
      "text": "他们就在X上宣传了一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 1809.2,
      "end": 1810.24,
      "text": "然后就传开了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1810.24,
      "end": 1812.04,
      "text": "大家都说天哪"
    },
    {
      "start": 1812.04,
      "end": 1812.8,
      "text": "DRM完了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1812.8,
      "end": 1815.24,
      "text": "这里有一个DRM优化方案"
    },
    {
      "start": 1815.24,
      "end": 1817.86,
      "text": "但我在全世界找不到一个AI工程师"
    },
    {
      "start": 1817.86,
      "end": 1821.68,
      "text": "相信TurboQuant会对DRM需求产生任何影响"
    },
    {
      "start": 1821.68,
      "end": 1822.8,
      "text": "但不管怎样"
    },
    {
      "start": 1822.8,
      "end": 1824.48,
      "text": "这就是对Richard Sutton的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1824.48,
      "end": 1825.8,
      "text": "Bitter Lesson的一种违背"
    },
    {
      "start": 1825.8,
      "end": 1829.68,
      "text": "更多compute总会胜过人类在算法上的巧思"
    },
    {
      "start": 1829.68,
      "end": 1831.08,
      "text": "更多compute data"
    },
    {
      "start": 1831.08,
      "end": 1833.72,
      "text": "或者超过Chinchilla Optimal的训练"
    },
    {
      "start": 1833.72,
      "end": 1834.6799999999998,
      "text": "我想说的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1834.6799999999998,
      "end": 1836.6999999999998,
      "text": "现在人们越来越常做的这些事"
    },
    {
      "start": 1836.6999999999998,
      "end": 1838.3,
      "text": "确实是一个真实风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 1838.3,
      "end": 1840.72,
      "text": "我觉得真正构建这些模型的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1840.72,
      "end": 1842.58,
      "text": "对这个风险是怀疑的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1842.58,
      "end": 1844.02,
      "text": "我之所以没那么怀疑"
    },
    {
      "start": 1844.02,
      "end": 1846.76,
      "text": "是因为我觉得我们离ASI已经非常近了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1846.76,
      "end": 1848.1999999999998,
      "text": "谁知道Bitter Lesson"
    },
    {
      "start": 1848.1999999999998,
      "end": 1850.72,
      "text": "对400IQ的模型还成不成立"
    },
    {
      "start": 1850.72,
      "end": 1853.62,
      "text": "或者也许我们会经历一个短暂阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 1853.62,
      "end": 1855.5,
      "text": "如果你达到了ASI"
    },
    {
      "start": 1855.5,
      "end": 1856.8999999999999,
      "text": "他第一件想要的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 1856.8999999999999,
      "end": 1858.74,
      "text": "可能就是变得更聪明"
    },
    {
      "start": 1858.74,
      "end": 1860.0,
      "text": "并拥有更多资源"
    },
    {
      "start": 1860.0,
      "end": 1861.6,
      "text": "他要怎么做到这一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 1861.6,
      "end": 1863.56,
      "text": "他会让自己变得更高效"
    },
    {
      "start": 1863.56,
      "end": 1865.72,
      "text": "我认为这确实是一个风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 1865.72,
      "end": 1866.88,
      "text": "Bitter Lesson里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1866.88,
      "end": 1869.0,
      "text": "我相信字面上也包括人类"
    },
    {
      "start": 1869.0,
      "end": 1870.86,
      "text": "所以我们很快就会知道"
    },
    {
      "start": 1870.86,
      "end": 1873.46,
      "text": "Bitter Lesson到底还成不成立"
    },
    {
      "start": 1873.46,
      "end": 1875.66,
      "text": "如果它适用于300IQ的AI"
    },
    {
      "start": 1875.66,
      "end": 1877.58,
      "text": "那再到400 500 600IQ"
    },
    {
      "start": 1877.58,
      "end": 1879.46,
      "text": "到某个时候我们可能会看到一个"
    },
    {
      "start": 1879.46,
      "end": 1882.18,
      "text": "基于AI和ACI的暂时违背"
    },
    {
      "start": 1882.18,
      "end": 1883.56,
      "text": "Bitter Lesson的阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 1883.56,
      "end": 1885.06,
      "text": "我很好奇"
    },
    {
      "start": 1885.06,
      "end": 1887.86,
      "text": "你怎么看模型创新里的其他部分"
    },
    {
      "start": 1887.86,
      "end": 1890.32,
      "text": "比如continual learning和memory"
    },
    {
      "start": 1890.32,
      "end": 1892.78,
      "text": "大家似乎最关注这两个方向"
    },
    {
      "start": 1892.78,
      "end": 1896.4399999999998,
      "text": "觉得他们可能会带我们进入另一个新的范式"
    },
    {
      "start": 1896.4399999999998,
      "end": 1898.9199999999998,
      "text": "你怎么看这两件事的作用"
    },
    {
      "start": 1898.9199999999998,
      "end": 1901.58,
      "text": "我觉得我们已经通过这些harness"
    },
    {
      "start": 1901.58,
      "end": 1903.12,
      "text": "在memory上做了很多事"
    },
    {
      "start": 1903.12,
      "end": 1905.36,
      "text": "后来我们发现harness engineering"
    },
    {
      "start": 1905.36,
      "end": 1907.0,
      "text": "没有模型本身重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 1907.0,
      "end": 1908.4199999999998,
      "text": "但它真的很关键"
    },
    {
      "start": 1908.4199999999998,
      "end": 1911.04,
      "text": "而且这些harness和模型越来越多"
    },
    {
      "start": 1911.04,
      "end": 1912.6399999999999,
      "text": "是在一起共同开发的"
    },
    {
      "start": 1912.6399999999999,
      "end": 1914.6399999999999,
      "text": "harness做的一件大事"
    },
    {
      "start": 1914.6399999999999,
      "end": 1915.82,
      "text": "你可以把它理解成"
    },
    {
      "start": 1915.82,
      "end": 1917.8999999999999,
      "text": "模型运行时所处的Ryntime"
    },
    {
      "start": 1917.8999999999999,
      "end": 1920.04,
      "text": "他知道工具在哪里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1920.04,
      "end": 1921.34,
      "text": "会创建context"
    },
    {
      "start": 1921.34,
      "end": 1922.06,
      "text": "memory state"
    },
    {
      "start": 1922.06,
      "end": 1924.0,
      "text": "有非常具体的prompt或指令"
    },
    {
      "start": 1924.0,
      "end": 1926.58,
      "text": "总之他会带来很大的差别"
    },
    {
      "start": 1926.58,
      "end": 1927.58,
      "text": "差别巨大"
    },
    {
      "start": 1927.58,
      "end": 1929.3,
      "text": "哪怕是很简单的版本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1929.3,
      "end": 1932.02,
      "text": "简单版本也会带来惊人的差别"
    },
    {
      "start": 1932.02,
      "end": 1933.6599999999999,
      "text": "我想我上次来这里的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 1933.6599999999999,
      "end": 1934.76,
      "text": "说过很多遍"
    },
    {
      "start": 1934.76,
      "end": 1936.58,
      "text": "我当时说作为投资人"
    },
    {
      "start": 1936.58,
      "end": 1939.1799999999998,
      "text": "你一定要付每月250美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 1939.1799999999998,
      "end": 1940.84,
      "text": "买当时那个版本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1940.84,
      "end": 1942.62,
      "text": "这样才能形成自己的直觉"
    },
    {
      "start": 1942.62,
      "end": 1944.76,
      "text": "但现在只靠这种方式"
    },
    {
      "start": 1944.76,
      "end": 1948.36,
      "text": "已经不可能理解今天Frontier AI能做什么了"
    },
    {
      "start": 1948.36,
      "end": 1950.22,
      "text": "即使是非写代码的用力"
    },
    {
      "start": 1950.22,
      "end": 1952.22,
      "text": "你也需要Cloud Code或Codex"
    },
    {
      "start": 1952.22,
      "end": 1954.2,
      "text": "而且你需要用Enterprise Plan"
    },
    {
      "start": 1954.2,
      "end": 1955.0,
      "text": "原因是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1955.0,
      "end": 1957.48,
      "text": "这也是我认为Google失去成本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1957.48,
      "end": 1959.46,
      "text": "领先地位之后带来的另一个变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 1959.46,
      "end": 1962.56,
      "text": "这些AI模型已经转向按使用量计费"
    },
    {
      "start": 1962.56,
      "end": 1965.48,
      "text": "如果你还在每月250、300"
    },
    {
      "start": 1965.48,
      "end": 1967.8,
      "text": "或者280美元之类的套餐里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1967.8,
      "end": 1969.52,
      "text": "你会被严重限速"
    },
    {
      "start": 1969.52,
      "end": 1972.74,
      "text": "你拿到的是一个被切掉大脑的AI版本"
    },
    {
      "start": 1972.74,
      "end": 1974.48,
      "text": "因为就像我们之前说的Cloud"
    },
    {
      "start": 1974.48,
      "end": 1977.06,
      "text": "现在输出的token少了70%"
    },
    {
      "start": 1977.06,
      "end": 1979.6200000000001,
      "text": "你真正想要的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 1979.6200000000001,
      "end": 1980.98,
      "text": "Claude和他的Harness"
    },
    {
      "start": 1980.98,
      "end": 1982.56,
      "text": "认为为了给你好答案"
    },
    {
      "start": 1982.56,
      "end": 1984.1,
      "text": "必须输出的那些token"
    },
    {
      "start": 1984.1,
      "end": 1986.7,
      "text": "那你就需要用按使用量计费的plan"
    },
    {
      "start": 1986.7,
      "end": 1987.68,
      "text": "顺便说一句"
    },
    {
      "start": 1987.68,
      "end": 1989.08,
      "text": "这对AI非常利好"
    },
    {
      "start": 1989.08,
      "end": 1992.78,
      "text": "我在2005到2007年做过电信分析师"
    },
    {
      "start": 1992.78,
      "end": 1995.32,
      "text": "移动通信在之前10年里"
    },
    {
      "start": 1995.32,
      "end": 1997.1,
      "text": "一直是很好的增长行业"
    },
    {
      "start": 1997.1,
      "end": 2000.6,
      "text": "原因是它结合了固定价格和按使用量计费"
    },
    {
      "start": 2000.6,
      "end": 2003.34,
      "text": "比如某个价格包含900分钟"
    },
    {
      "start": 2003.34,
      "end": 2005.54,
      "text": "超过之后再按使用量收费"
    },
    {
      "start": 2005.54,
      "end": 2009.08,
      "text": "移动通信什么时候不再是一个很好的增长行业"
    },
    {
      "start": 2009.08,
      "end": 2011.8,
      "text": "就是所有人都转向无限量套餐的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2011.8,
      "end": 2014.28,
      "text": "顺便说一句长途电话也是一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 2014.28,
      "end": 2018.48,
      "text": "AI现在正从无限量使用转向按杯付费"
    },
    {
      "start": 2018.48,
      "end": 2021.4399999999998,
      "text": "结果证明人们真的很喜欢和朋友打长途电话"
    },
    {
      "start": 2021.4399999999998,
      "end": 2024.1,
      "text": "人们也真的很喜欢在电话上和朋友聊天"
    },
    {
      "start": 2024.1,
      "end": 2025.98,
      "text": "人们也真的很喜欢用AI"
    },
    {
      "start": 2025.98,
      "end": 2029.9199999999998,
      "text": "尤其是现在一个人可以让100个agent同时工作"
    },
    {
      "start": 2029.9199999999998,
      "end": 2032.58,
      "text": "所以我认为转向按使用量计费"
    },
    {
      "start": 2032.58,
      "end": 2033.6399999999999,
      "text": "很可能就是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2033.6399999999999,
      "end": 2034.8,
      "text": "为什么你会看到"
    },
    {
      "start": 2034.8,
      "end": 2036.22,
      "text": "OpenAI和Anthropic"
    },
    {
      "start": 2036.22,
      "end": 2038.6,
      "text": "今年AR远远超过2000亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 2038.6,
      "end": 2040.6399999999999,
      "text": "因为不只是更多compute会上线"
    },
    {
      "start": 2040.6399999999999,
      "end": 2042.4199999999998,
      "text": "他们还可以通过这些"
    },
    {
      "start": 2042.4199999999998,
      "end": 2045.02,
      "text": "按使用量计费的enterprise model"
    },
    {
      "start": 2045.02,
      "end": 2047.36,
      "text": "推高frontier token的价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 2047.36,
      "end": 2048.7999999999997,
      "text": "但这也让人难过"
    },
    {
      "start": 2048.7999999999997,
      "end": 2051.02,
      "text": "对整个世界来说都让人难过"
    },
    {
      "start": 2051.02,
      "end": 2052.24,
      "text": "因为这意味着"
    },
    {
      "start": 2052.24,
      "end": 2053.7599999999998,
      "text": "如果你付不起钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 2053.7599999999998,
      "end": 2055.18,
      "text": "你就不在frontier上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2055.18,
      "end": 2057.36,
      "text": "不过说回continual learning"
    },
    {
      "start": 2057.36,
      "end": 2058.94,
      "text": "如果我们解决了这个问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2058.94,
      "end": 2061.04,
      "text": "你是怎么理解它的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2061.04,
      "end": 2063.4,
      "text": "人类大脑有太多谜团了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2063.4,
      "end": 2064.5,
      "text": "相对于AI"
    },
    {
      "start": 2064.5,
      "end": 2066.7,
      "text": "我们是样本效率极高的学习者"
    },
    {
      "start": 2066.7,
      "end": 2068.08,
      "text": "我忘了具体是多少"
    },
    {
      "start": 2068.08,
      "end": 2070.04,
      "text": "但AI需要的样本量"
    },
    {
      "start": 2070.04,
      "end": 2072.4,
      "text": "比我们高出好几个数量级"
    },
    {
      "start": 2072.4,
      "end": 2073.62,
      "text": "很多很多个数量级"
    },
    {
      "start": 2073.62,
      "end": 2076.04,
      "text": "今天在某些东西可以验证的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2076.04,
      "end": 2078.04,
      "text": "我们已经有了一种"
    },
    {
      "start": 2078.04,
      "end": 2079.7799999999997,
      "text": "粗糙版本的continual learning"
    },
    {
      "start": 2079.7799999999997,
      "end": 2082.0,
      "text": "那就是在mid training期间"
    },
    {
      "start": 2082.0,
      "end": 2083.2,
      "text": "做reinforcement learning"
    },
    {
      "start": 2083.2,
      "end": 2085.24,
      "text": "但真正的continual learning"
    },
    {
      "start": 2085.24,
      "end": 2086.32,
      "text": "是一个模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2086.32,
      "end": 2088.18,
      "text": "能够动态调整自己的weight"
    },
    {
      "start": 2088.18,
      "end": 2090.7,
      "text": "或者以某种方式实时调整"
    },
    {
      "start": 2090.7,
      "end": 2092.2799999999997,
      "text": "就像人类一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 2092.2799999999997,
      "end": 2094.58,
      "text": "这不就是人类会做的事吗"
    },
    {
      "start": 2094.58,
      "end": 2095.2,
      "text": "是的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2095.2,
      "end": 2097.4199999999996,
      "text": "比如我第一次把手伸进火里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2097.4199999999996,
      "end": 2098.46,
      "text": "我就学会了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2098.46,
      "end": 2100.24,
      "text": "以前从没碰过以后"
    },
    {
      "start": 2100.24,
      "end": 2101.3599999999997,
      "text": "也不会再伸进去"
    },
    {
      "start": 2101.3599999999997,
      "end": 2102.3999999999996,
      "text": "今天的模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2102.3999999999996,
      "end": 2104.48,
      "text": "却需要把手伸进火里一百万次"
    },
    {
      "start": 2104.48,
      "end": 2105.96,
      "text": "然后还得让设计者"
    },
    {
      "start": 2105.96,
      "end": 2107.1,
      "text": "在下一轮训练里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2107.1,
      "end": 2108.8999999999996,
      "text": "或者在一个RL Gym里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2108.8999999999996,
      "end": 2110.2999999999997,
      "text": "给他放一团火"
    },
    {
      "start": 2110.2999999999997,
      "end": 2111.4399999999996,
      "text": "他才能学会"
    },
    {
      "start": 2111.4399999999996,
      "end": 2114.8199999999997,
      "text": "我觉得他必须能动态更新权重"
    },
    {
      "start": 2114.8199999999997,
      "end": 2115.7999999999997,
      "text": "但我也觉得"
    },
    {
      "start": 2115.7999999999997,
      "end": 2117.1,
      "text": "大家正在研究很多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2117.1,
      "end": 2118.46,
      "text": "比这更聪明的技术"
    },
    {
      "start": 2118.46,
      "end": 2119.98,
      "text": "如果我们做到这一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2119.98,
      "end": 2121.54,
      "text": "起飞速度就会非常快"
    },
    {
      "start": 2121.54,
      "end": 2123.46,
      "text": "而且大家似乎很有信心"
    },
    {
      "start": 2123.46,
      "end": 2126.56,
      "text": "continual learning差不多就在眼前"
    },
    {
      "start": 2126.56,
      "end": 2128.5,
      "text": "我确实觉得这是第三个大问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2128.5,
      "end": 2130.38,
      "text": "bitter lesson会不会失效"
    },
    {
      "start": 2130.38,
      "end": 2132.12,
      "text": "因为ASI之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 2132.12,
      "end": 2134.48,
      "text": "人类智慧可能不那么重要了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2134.48,
      "end": 2136.52,
      "text": "frontier token还能不能继续保持"
    },
    {
      "start": 2136.52,
      "end": 2137.58,
      "text": "现在这样的溢价"
    },
    {
      "start": 2137.58,
      "end": 2139.94,
      "text": "我们会不会得到continual learning"
    },
    {
      "start": 2139.94,
      "end": 2141.72,
      "text": "如果会什么时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 2141.72,
      "end": 2143.38,
      "text": "在这一切里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2143.38,
      "end": 2145.3,
      "text": "新的芯片公司扮演什么角色"
    },
    {
      "start": 2145.3,
      "end": 2147.32,
      "text": "我们已经聊了很多NVIDIA"
    },
    {
      "start": 2147.32,
      "end": 2149.42,
      "text": "以及它和TSMC"
    },
    {
      "start": 2149.42,
      "end": 2150.86,
      "text": "Intel等公司的关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 2150.86,
      "end": 2153.42,
      "text": "现在可以说是百花齐放"
    },
    {
      "start": 2153.42,
      "end": 2156.42,
      "text": "我觉得可能真的有上千家公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2156.42,
      "end": 2157.96,
      "text": "在尝试做新芯片"
    },
    {
      "start": 2157.96,
      "end": 2160.9,
      "text": "想解决这个瓶颈里的某一部分"
    },
    {
      "start": 2160.9,
      "end": 2163.7000000000003,
      "text": "我很好奇你怎么看这个领域"
    },
    {
      "start": 2163.7000000000003,
      "end": 2164.42,
      "text": "这个机会"
    },
    {
      "start": 2164.42,
      "end": 2166.0800000000004,
      "text": "以及它会发挥什么作用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2166.0800000000004,
      "end": 2167.94,
      "text": "这些公司会发挥什么作用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2167.94,
      "end": 2170.06,
      "text": "我觉得这对世界来说是好事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2170.06,
      "end": 2170.8,
      "text": "也很健康"
    },
    {
      "start": 2170.8,
      "end": 2172.52,
      "text": "对Jensen来说也是好事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2172.52,
      "end": 2173.82,
      "text": "因为换一个政府"
    },
    {
      "start": 2173.82,
      "end": 2174.82,
      "text": "可能会有不同看法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2174.82,
      "end": 2177.04,
      "text": "我认为竞争对所有人都有好处"
    },
    {
      "start": 2177.04,
      "end": 2179.9,
      "text": "在坦克设计里他们会讲铁三角"
    },
    {
      "start": 2179.9,
      "end": 2182.44,
      "text": "坦克设计里的铁三角是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2182.44,
      "end": 2187.34,
      "text": "所有坦克设计者都必须在攻击防御和机动性之间取舍"
    },
    {
      "start": 2187.34,
      "end": 2190.2799999999997,
      "text": "原因很明显防御越强也就是装甲越厚"
    },
    {
      "start": 2190.2799999999997,
      "end": 2192.52,
      "text": "坦克就越重机动性就越差"
    },
    {
      "start": 2192.52,
      "end": 2195.4,
      "text": "所以你必须在这个三点里做选择"
    },
    {
      "start": 2195.4,
      "end": 2196.58,
      "text": "比如以色列的Merkava"
    },
    {
      "start": 2196.58,
      "end": 2198.56,
      "text": "它就是偏向防御优化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2198.56,
      "end": 2200.54,
      "text": "俄罗斯坦克还有Leopard"
    },
    {
      "start": 2200.54,
      "end": 2202.4,
      "text": "一般更偏向机动性优化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2202.4,
      "end": 2203.94,
      "text": "芯片设计也是一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 2203.94,
      "end": 2207.14,
      "text": "这里有一些由物理定律决定的基本约束"
    },
    {
      "start": 2207.14,
      "end": 2209.5,
      "text": "它们体现在TSMC的设计规则里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2209.5,
      "end": 2211.98,
      "text": "你必须在这些约束内做设计"
    },
    {
      "start": 2211.98,
      "end": 2214.12,
      "text": "现在有TPU Tranium和AMD"
    },
    {
      "start": 2214.12,
      "end": 2217.3,
      "text": "它们本质上都在尝试做一个更好的GPU"
    },
    {
      "start": 2217.3,
      "end": 2219.64,
      "text": "今天我觉得可能Tranium做得最好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2219.64,
      "end": 2221.82,
      "text": "当然没有谁真的比GPU更好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2221.82,
      "end": 2225.4,
      "text": "但我觉得Tranium已经有点在拽超人的披风了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2225.4,
      "end": 2227.54,
      "text": "不过这场比赛还没真正开始"
    },
    {
      "start": 2227.54,
      "end": 2229.48,
      "text": "Tranium 3需要放量生产"
    },
    {
      "start": 2229.48,
      "end": 2232.2000000000003,
      "text": "因为它有一个Scale-up Switch网络"
    },
    {
      "start": 2232.2,
      "end": 2234.2,
      "text": "如果你想以经济的方式"
    },
    {
      "start": 2234.2,
      "end": 2235.8199999999997,
      "text": "对贸易模型做influence"
    },
    {
      "start": 2235.8199999999997,
      "end": 2237.62,
      "text": "这个网络非常关键"
    },
    {
      "start": 2237.62,
      "end": 2239.64,
      "text": "很多公司用的是Torres架构"
    },
    {
      "start": 2239.64,
      "end": 2241.3199999999997,
      "text": "Google之前就是这样"
    },
    {
      "start": 2241.3199999999997,
      "end": 2242.1,
      "text": "AMD也是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2242.1,
      "end": 2244.2599999999998,
      "text": "我们还要看看MI450会怎么样"
    },
    {
      "start": 2244.2599999999998,
      "end": 2245.22,
      "text": "现在还不知道"
    },
    {
      "start": 2245.22,
      "end": 2247.46,
      "text": "我们对Tranium 3的了解"
    },
    {
      "start": 2247.46,
      "end": 2249.52,
      "text": "可能比对MI450更多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2249.52,
      "end": 2251.56,
      "text": "但这是一场很难打的仗"
    },
    {
      "start": 2251.56,
      "end": 2253.54,
      "text": "所以你必须做不一样的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2253.54,
      "end": 2254.96,
      "text": "而且这个不一样的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2254.96,
      "end": 2256.0,
      "text": "还必须很难做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2256.0,
      "end": 2257.8799999999997,
      "text": "所以我觉得这些创业公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2257.8799999999997,
      "end": 2259.2999999999997,
      "text": "最好的路径是这样"
    },
    {
      "start": 2259.2999999999997,
      "end": 2261.4199999999996,
      "text": "我的经验法则是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2261.42,
      "end": 2264.96,
      "text": "1%的市场份额就会值1000亿美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 2264.96,
      "end": 2267.92,
      "text": "1000亿美元已经是非常好的venture"
    },
    {
      "start": 2267.92,
      "end": 2269.14,
      "text": "结果了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2269.14,
      "end": 2270.34,
      "text": "我觉得Jensen会说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2270.34,
      "end": 2270.58,
      "text": "好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2270.58,
      "end": 2273.04,
      "text": "如果有人做了不一样的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2273.04,
      "end": 2274.42,
      "text": "而且拿到1%"
    },
    {
      "start": 2274.42,
      "end": 2275.06,
      "text": "2%"
    },
    {
      "start": 2275.06,
      "end": 2276.28,
      "text": "或者3%的份额"
    },
    {
      "start": 2276.28,
      "end": 2278.2400000000002,
      "text": "我们也会做那种芯片"
    },
    {
      "start": 2278.2400000000002,
      "end": 2280.04,
      "text": "所有人都会面对这件事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2280.04,
      "end": 2283.06,
      "text": "但如果你是在尝试做一个更好的GPU"
    },
    {
      "start": 2283.06,
      "end": 2284.04,
      "text": "那祝你好运"
    },
    {
      "start": 2284.04,
      "end": 2286.14,
      "text": "如果你做的是不一样的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2286.14,
      "end": 2287.7400000000002,
      "text": "那它也必须很难做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2287.7400000000002,
      "end": 2289.64,
      "text": "你可以做不同的取舍"
    },
    {
      "start": 2289.64,
      "end": 2291.92,
      "text": "prefill和inference的结偶"
    },
    {
      "start": 2291.92,
      "end": 2293.66,
      "text": "确实把做这些"
    },
    {
      "start": 2293.66,
      "end": 2295.2599999999998,
      "text": "不同取舍的空间打开了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2295.2599999999998,
      "end": 2296.8199999999997,
      "text": "因为你可以为decoat"
    },
    {
      "start": 2296.8199999999997,
      "end": 2298.2,
      "text": "做非常激进的取舍"
    },
    {
      "start": 2298.2,
      "end": 2299.2599999999998,
      "text": "也可以为prefill"
    },
    {
      "start": 2299.2599999999998,
      "end": 2300.54,
      "text": "做非常激进的取舍"
    },
    {
      "start": 2300.54,
      "end": 2302.74,
      "text": "prefill指的是接受context"
    },
    {
      "start": 2302.74,
      "end": 2304.54,
      "text": "decoat指的是输出"
    },
    {
      "start": 2304.54,
      "end": 2304.8599999999997,
      "text": "对吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2304.8599999999997,
      "end": 2306.74,
      "text": "我有一位很棒的同事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2306.74,
      "end": 2307.6,
      "text": "叫Andrew Fox"
    },
    {
      "start": 2307.6,
      "end": 2309.06,
      "text": "他说你可以想象"
    },
    {
      "start": 2309.06,
      "end": 2311.14,
      "text": "一艘18世纪的英国海军战舰"
    },
    {
      "start": 2311.14,
      "end": 2313.3399999999997,
      "text": "prefill就是在给大炮装弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 2313.3399999999997,
      "end": 2314.64,
      "text": "decoat就是在开炮"
    },
    {
      "start": 2314.64,
      "end": 2316.24,
      "text": "prefill字面上说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2316.24,
      "end": 2318.1,
      "text": "就是模型理解问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2318.1,
      "end": 2318.92,
      "text": "理解prompt"
    },
    {
      "start": 2318.92,
      "end": 2321.28,
      "text": "然后跟踪自己正在生成的答案"
    },
    {
      "start": 2321.28,
      "end": 2324.44,
      "text": "它本质上是一个受内存容量限制的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2324.44,
      "end": 2326.7000000000003,
      "text": "Decode是生成新Token的过程"
    },
    {
      "start": 2326.7000000000003,
      "end": 2328.14,
      "text": "它受内存带宽限制"
    },
    {
      "start": 2328.14,
      "end": 2330.28,
      "text": "所以如果你是芯片设计师"
    },
    {
      "start": 2330.28,
      "end": 2332.56,
      "text": "这就给了你更大的发挥空间"
    },
    {
      "start": 2332.56,
      "end": 2333.9,
      "text": "但即便如此"
    },
    {
      "start": 2333.9,
      "end": 2335.4,
      "text": "这件事也必须足够难"
    },
    {
      "start": 2335.4,
      "end": 2337.84,
      "text": "因为如果你只是在那个铁三角里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2337.84,
      "end": 2339.96,
      "text": "做不同取舍去优化内存容量"
    },
    {
      "start": 2339.96,
      "end": 2341.5,
      "text": "而这些取舍并不难"
    },
    {
      "start": 2341.5,
      "end": 2343.38,
      "text": "那NVIDIA也会做同样的取舍"
    },
    {
      "start": 2343.38,
      "end": 2346.6800000000003,
      "text": "他们从台积电拿到的价格"
    },
    {
      "start": 2346.6800000000003,
      "end": 2348.2000000000003,
      "text": "会比你能拿到的好得多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2348.2,
      "end": 2349.5,
      "text": "那就祝你好运吧"
    },
    {
      "start": 2349.5,
      "end": 2351.5,
      "text": "而且他们还有一个优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 2351.5,
      "end": 2354.2599999999998,
      "text": "就是他们和每一家模型公司都合作"
    },
    {
      "start": 2354.2599999999998,
      "end": 2356.66,
      "text": "可以不断优化自己的设计"
    },
    {
      "start": 2356.66,
      "end": 2357.7,
      "text": "顺便说一句"
    },
    {
      "start": 2357.7,
      "end": 2359.02,
      "text": "还有一件很有意思的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2359.02,
      "end": 2361.8399999999997,
      "text": "如果你是VC投了一家半导体公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2361.8399999999997,
      "end": 2364.08,
      "text": "而这家公司告诉你"
    },
    {
      "start": 2364.08,
      "end": 2365.2599999999998,
      "text": "他们会有优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 2365.2599999999998,
      "end": 2368.5,
      "text": "因为他们能特殊接触到台积电的某个工艺"
    },
    {
      "start": 2368.5,
      "end": 2369.8799999999997,
      "text": "我可以向你保证"
    },
    {
      "start": 2369.8799999999997,
      "end": 2371.46,
      "text": "Jensen在那个工艺"
    },
    {
      "start": 2371.46,
      "end": 2374.3199999999997,
      "text": "还只是台积电脑海里的一个念头时"
    },
    {
      "start": 2374.3199999999997,
      "end": 2375.4399999999996,
      "text": "就已经看过了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2375.4399999999996,
      "end": 2377.16,
      "text": "他们对这个工艺的了解"
    },
    {
      "start": 2377.16,
      "end": 2380.1,
      "text": "远远超过一家200人的小公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2380.1,
      "end": 2381.3399999999997,
      "text": "能想象的程度"
    },
    {
      "start": 2381.3399999999997,
      "end": 2382.2999999999997,
      "text": "台积电也好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2382.2999999999997,
      "end": 2384.02,
      "text": "供应链里的每家公司也好"
    },
    {
      "start": 2384.02,
      "end": 2386.54,
      "text": "都会把所有东西展示给Jensen"
    },
    {
      "start": 2386.54,
      "end": 2388.3599999999997,
      "text": "就像他们也会把所有东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2388.3599999999997,
      "end": 2389.62,
      "text": "展示给Amazon AMD"
    },
    {
      "start": 2389.62,
      "end": 2391.24,
      "text": "TPU那些团队一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 2391.24,
      "end": 2392.8399999999997,
      "text": "这也是另一个原因"
    },
    {
      "start": 2392.8399999999997,
      "end": 2395.1,
      "text": "别去试图做一个更好的GPU"
    },
    {
      "start": 2395.1,
      "end": 2396.8399999999997,
      "text": "所以你可以做不同的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2396.8399999999997,
      "end": 2399.46,
      "text": "你可以在prefill这块画布上发挥"
    },
    {
      "start": 2399.46,
      "end": 2402.18,
      "text": "也可以在decode这块画布上发挥"
    },
    {
      "start": 2402.18,
      "end": 2404.44,
      "text": "但你还必须做一件很难的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2404.44,
      "end": 2406.7,
      "text": "因为一旦它做到了规模化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2406.7,
      "end": 2409.16,
      "text": "那四家公司会非常快的跟进"
    },
    {
      "start": 2409.16,
      "end": 2412.22,
      "text": "我的公司曾经是Cerebrus的Venture投资人"
    },
    {
      "start": 2412.22,
      "end": 2416.3599999999997,
      "text": "Cerebrus做的事情就是又难又从根本上不同的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2416.3599999999997,
      "end": 2418.14,
      "text": "也就是Wafer Scale Computing"
    },
    {
      "start": 2418.14,
      "end": 2419.8399999999997,
      "text": "它会带来一整套取舍"
    },
    {
      "start": 2419.8399999999997,
      "end": 2423.3599999999997,
      "text": "但他们当时做出的那个架构决策非常难"
    },
    {
      "start": 2423.3599999999997,
      "end": 2425.8999999999996,
      "text": "也让他们能做别人做不了的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2425.8999999999996,
      "end": 2427.98,
      "text": "至于这件事最后能做多大"
    },
    {
      "start": 2427.98,
      "end": 2431.7599999999998,
      "text": "我们还要看他们现在也在做一些很酷的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2431.7599999999998,
      "end": 2433.8799999999997,
      "text": "比如Cerebrus面临的一个问题是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2433.88,
      "end": 2436.98,
      "text": "一旦你需要把很多芯片拼在一起"
    },
    {
      "start": 2436.98,
      "end": 2439.34,
      "text": "扩展scalable网络或者scalable网络"
    },
    {
      "start": 2439.34,
      "end": 2440.76,
      "text": "你就需要大量IO"
    },
    {
      "start": 2440.76,
      "end": 2442.92,
      "text": "IO受所谓shoreline限制"
    },
    {
      "start": 2442.92,
      "end": 2444.88,
      "text": "也就是芯片边缘的长度限制"
    },
    {
      "start": 2444.88,
      "end": 2446.82,
      "text": "所以相对于shoreline IO"
    },
    {
      "start": 2446.82,
      "end": 2451.28,
      "text": "Cerebrus在片上计算和内存上的比例是压倒性的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2451.28,
      "end": 2454.0,
      "text": "但他们是一群非常聪明的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 2454.0,
      "end": 2455.78,
      "text": "他们做了一件非常难的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2455.78,
      "end": 2456.86,
      "text": "现在他们在尝试"
    },
    {
      "start": 2456.86,
      "end": 2459.54,
      "text": "能不能把一片光学wafer直接放到上面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2459.54,
      "end": 2461.52,
      "text": "这样就能解决那个问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2461.52,
      "end": 2464.92,
      "text": "我相信他们也在研究Dirham的Hybrid Bonding"
    },
    {
      "start": 2464.92,
      "end": 2466.56,
      "text": "绕开这些所谓的限制"
    },
    {
      "start": 2466.56,
      "end": 2468.78,
      "text": "那些限制其实并不是真的限制"
    },
    {
      "start": 2468.78,
      "end": 2470.84,
      "text": "理论上一台Cerebrus机器"
    },
    {
      "start": 2470.84,
      "end": 2472.7,
      "text": "可以运行任何大小的模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2472.7,
      "end": 2474.4,
      "text": "只是有些模型尺寸"
    },
    {
      "start": 2474.4,
      "end": 2477.2,
      "text": "它们跑起来会比其他尺寸更有优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 2477.2,
      "end": 2479.7599999999998,
      "text": "所以我觉得Cerebrus有意思的地方在于"
    },
    {
      "start": 2479.7599999999998,
      "end": 2481.18,
      "text": "它们做了一件不同的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2481.18,
      "end": 2482.82,
      "text": "而且很难做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2482.82,
      "end": 2484.28,
      "text": "真的很难做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2484.28,
      "end": 2486.06,
      "text": "就是Wafer Scale Computing"
    },
    {
      "start": 2486.06,
      "end": 2489.32,
      "text": "所以我确实认为这类公司是有角色的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2489.32,
      "end": 2492.1000000000004,
      "text": "我也会鼓励他们所有人做不同的取舍"
    },
    {
      "start": 2492.1000000000004,
      "end": 2493.36,
      "text": "尝试做很难的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2493.36,
      "end": 2495.94,
      "text": "因为Cerebrus IPO之后大家都会拿到钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 2495.94,
      "end": 2496.82,
      "text": "这不会是问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2496.82,
      "end": 2500.42,
      "text": "但Cerebrus花了三代芯片才把它做对"
    },
    {
      "start": 2500.42,
      "end": 2502.82,
      "text": "这是一家已经十年的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2502.82,
      "end": 2504.1400000000003,
      "text": "这真的很难"
    },
    {
      "start": 2504.1400000000003,
      "end": 2506.54,
      "text": "你看CEO Andrew Feldman就能看出来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2506.54,
      "end": 2509.4,
      "text": "他和整个团队为了走到今天"
    },
    {
      "start": 2509.4,
      "end": 2510.82,
      "text": "经历了多难的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2510.82,
      "end": 2512.8,
      "text": "他们需要有这种韧性和毅力"
    },
    {
      "start": 2512.8,
      "end": 2514.6000000000004,
      "text": "第一颗芯片失败了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2514.6000000000004,
      "end": 2515.7400000000002,
      "text": "这种事会发生"
    },
    {
      "start": 2515.7400000000002,
      "end": 2517.6800000000003,
      "text": "你能不能回来再做第二颗芯片"
    },
    {
      "start": 2517.68,
      "end": 2519.58,
      "text": "不过关于这个话题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2519.58,
      "end": 2521.22,
      "text": "我最后还想说一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2521.22,
      "end": 2524.2999999999997,
      "text": "这件事会极大延长GPU的使用寿命"
    },
    {
      "start": 2524.2999999999997,
      "end": 2526.04,
      "text": "而且可能会单枪匹马"
    },
    {
      "start": 2526.04,
      "end": 2527.3799999999997,
      "text": "拯救private credit"
    },
    {
      "start": 2527.3799999999997,
      "end": 2529.16,
      "text": "你问private credit是什么意思"
    },
    {
      "start": 2529.16,
      "end": 2530.1,
      "text": "private credit"
    },
    {
      "start": 2530.1,
      "end": 2533.2999999999997,
      "text": "现在因为那些SaaS贷款已经很痛苦了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2533.2999999999997,
      "end": 2535.74,
      "text": "不管这些贷款已经被减计了多少"
    },
    {
      "start": 2535.74,
      "end": 2537.3199999999997,
      "text": "可能还需要减计更多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2537.3199999999997,
      "end": 2539.96,
      "text": "因为如果上市公司都在艰难适应"
    },
    {
      "start": 2539.96,
      "end": 2542.6,
      "text": "那一家背着很多债的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2542.6,
      "end": 2543.7,
      "text": "又怎么适应"
    },
    {
      "start": 2543.7,
      "end": 2545.3199999999997,
      "text": "又怎么投资一个利润结构"
    },
    {
      "start": 2545.3199999999997,
      "end": 2546.68,
      "text": "完全不同的业务呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 2546.68,
      "end": 2549.56,
      "text": "但GPU里也有大量private credit"
    },
    {
      "start": 2549.56,
      "end": 2551.98,
      "text": "他们当时给这些GPU做承销"
    },
    {
      "start": 2551.98,
      "end": 2554.06,
      "text": "我觉得按的是三年或四年的寿命"
    },
    {
      "start": 2554.06,
      "end": 2556.04,
      "text": "而inference的拆分意味着"
    },
    {
      "start": 2556.04,
      "end": 2559.7,
      "text": "我认为这些GPU会有十年或者十五年的寿命"
    },
    {
      "start": 2559.7,
      "end": 2562.8599999999997,
      "text": "那些AI怀疑论者会说这些公司都在做假账"
    },
    {
      "start": 2562.8599999999997,
      "end": 2565.02,
      "text": "GPU的使用寿命只有一两年"
    },
    {
      "start": 2565.02,
      "end": 2566.8599999999997,
      "text": "CPU的使用寿命也只有四年"
    },
    {
      "start": 2566.8599999999997,
      "end": 2568.08,
      "text": "因为技术变化太快"
    },
    {
      "start": 2568.08,
      "end": 2568.8399999999997,
      "text": "不是这样的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2568.8399999999997,
      "end": 2570.7799999999997,
      "text": "技术快速变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2570.7799999999997,
      "end": 2573.1,
      "text": "以及prefill和inference的拆分"
    },
    {
      "start": 2573.1,
      "end": 2574.2999999999997,
      "text": "带来的结果是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2574.2999999999997,
      "end": 2576.1,
      "text": "你可以把一个Cerebrus系统"
    },
    {
      "start": 2576.1,
      "end": 2577.98,
      "text": "或者Groke LPU放在Hopper"
    },
    {
      "start": 2577.98,
      "end": 2579.3199999999997,
      "text": "甚至MI的前面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2579.3199999999997,
      "end": 2582.08,
      "text": "然后用Hopper和MI来做prefill"
    },
    {
      "start": 2582.08,
      "end": 2584.0,
      "text": "把那块GPU的使用寿命"
    },
    {
      "start": 2584.0,
      "end": 2585.8399999999997,
      "text": "一直延长到它烧掉为止"
    },
    {
      "start": 2585.8399999999997,
      "end": 2587.5,
      "text": "当然它们确实会烧掉"
    },
    {
      "start": 2587.5,
      "end": 2589.64,
      "text": "所以它们还是有时间上线的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2589.64,
      "end": 2592.3199999999997,
      "text": "但也许你不需要让它们跑得那么快"
    },
    {
      "start": 2592.3199999999997,
      "end": 2595.2,
      "text": "这对整个private credit行业都会非常有利"
    },
    {
      "start": 2595.2,
      "end": 2597.4,
      "text": "它会帮助融资AI建设"
    },
    {
      "start": 2597.4,
      "end": 2600.22,
      "text": "因为如果你能开始给GPU融资成本"
    },
    {
      "start": 2600.22,
      "end": 2602.6,
      "text": "更像是5%或6%"
    },
    {
      "start": 2602.6,
      "end": 2605.22,
      "text": "而不是我记得CoreWeave最低那笔融资"
    },
    {
      "start": 2605.22,
      "end": 2606.3999999999996,
      "text": "大概是7%出头"
    },
    {
      "start": 2606.3999999999996,
      "end": 2607.7999999999997,
      "text": "那在数学上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2607.7999999999997,
      "end": 2610.04,
      "text": "真的会改变这轮建设的融资成本"
    },
    {
      "start": 2610.04,
      "end": 2611.8999999999996,
      "text": "我们有了这种技术创新"
    },
    {
      "start": 2611.8999999999996,
      "end": 2613.3199999999997,
      "text": "它会降低融资成本"
    },
    {
      "start": 2613.3199999999997,
      "end": 2616.18,
      "text": "也会延长地球上算力的可用寿命"
    },
    {
      "start": 2616.18,
      "end": 2618.64,
      "text": "这里最后还有一点很有意思"
    },
    {
      "start": 2618.64,
      "end": 2620.2599999999998,
      "text": "我的朋友Jaymon Ball"
    },
    {
      "start": 2620.2599999999998,
      "end": 2621.3199999999997,
      "text": "刚做了一期播客"
    },
    {
      "start": 2621.3199999999997,
      "end": 2623.2599999999998,
      "text": "Kochu也有一份Deck"
    },
    {
      "start": 2623.2599999999998,
      "end": 2625.1,
      "text": "里面讲到卖稀缺的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 2625.1,
      "end": 2626.8399999999997,
      "text": "过得比买稀缺的人好太多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2626.8399999999997,
      "end": 2629.56,
      "text": "买稀缺的人就是那些hyperscaler"
    },
    {
      "start": 2629.56,
      "end": 2632.6,
      "text": "但如果你手里有一个巨大的存量资产"
    },
    {
      "start": 2632.6,
      "end": 2634.5,
      "text": "而这个东西现在正好短缺"
    },
    {
      "start": 2634.5,
      "end": 2637.0,
      "text": "那也是一个非常非常好的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 2637.0,
      "end": 2639.72,
      "text": "我们也听到CPU在agentic world里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2639.72,
      "end": 2641.22,
      "text": "比过去重要的多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2641.22,
      "end": 2643.12,
      "text": "他们要负责orchestration"
    },
    {
      "start": 2643.12,
      "end": 2644.42,
      "text": "to call等等等等"
    },
    {
      "start": 2644.42,
      "end": 2646.32,
      "text": "世界上最大的CPU集群"
    },
    {
      "start": 2646.32,
      "end": 2647.86,
      "text": "都在hyperscaler手里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2647.86,
      "end": 2650.18,
      "text": "所以我觉得有些hyperscaler"
    },
    {
      "start": 2650.18,
      "end": 2651.96,
      "text": "可能会稍微追上一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 2651.96,
      "end": 2653.28,
      "text": "那些卖稀缺的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2653.28,
      "end": 2656.38,
      "text": "我想把不同而且很难这个想法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2656.38,
      "end": 2658.64,
      "text": "放到基础设施之外来聊聊"
    },
    {
      "start": 2658.64,
      "end": 2661.28,
      "text": "现在你开始接触新的创始人"
    },
    {
      "start": 2661.28,
      "end": 2662.16,
      "text": "也接触那些"
    },
    {
      "start": 2662.16,
      "end": 2666.22,
      "text": "必须适应新世界的现任CEO和创始人"
    },
    {
      "start": 2666.22,
      "end": 2669.54,
      "text": "你看到的那些最AI native的创始人"
    },
    {
      "start": 2669.54,
      "end": 2671.92,
      "text": "不是做芯片基础设计或者模型的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 2671.92,
      "end": 2675.42,
      "text": "而是用这项技术去做其他东西的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 2675.42,
      "end": 2677.14,
      "text": "如果你观察到了差异"
    },
    {
      "start": 2677.14,
      "end": 2680.6,
      "text": "他们在你看来最不一样的地方是什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 2680.6,
      "end": 2683.8399999999997,
      "text": "首先我觉得这不只是芯片设计的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2683.8399999999997,
      "end": 2686.72,
      "text": "对我来说这一直是venture里一个根本问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2686.72,
      "end": 2688.2799999999997,
      "text": "有些不同的想法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2688.2799999999997,
      "end": 2691.3399999999997,
      "text": "地球上每个人一听就会觉得显而易见"
    },
    {
      "start": 2691.34,
      "end": 2693.7000000000003,
      "text": "如果你做Venture处在这种位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 2693.7000000000003,
      "end": 2696.1000000000004,
      "text": "而这件事本身又不难做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2696.1000000000004,
      "end": 2698.42,
      "text": "并且在你建立规模之前"
    },
    {
      "start": 2698.42,
      "end": 2700.36,
      "text": "它就已经对全世界都显而易见"
    },
    {
      "start": 2700.36,
      "end": 2701.92,
      "text": "那你就麻烦了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2701.92,
      "end": 2703.6200000000003,
      "text": "规模是终极优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 2703.6200000000003,
      "end": 2705.88,
      "text": "Amazon当年很厉害的一点是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2705.88,
      "end": 2709.06,
      "text": "我觉得这件事对很多人来说是显而易见的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2709.06,
      "end": 2711.84,
      "text": "但对零售业的CEO们来说并不显而易见"
    },
    {
      "start": 2711.84,
      "end": 2713.48,
      "text": "Amazon非常聪明"
    },
    {
      "start": 2713.48,
      "end": 2715.82,
      "text": "任何VC投资的电商公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2715.82,
      "end": 2716.78,
      "text": "他们都会去摧毁"
    },
    {
      "start": 2716.78,
      "end": 2718.2400000000002,
      "text": "他们会说真可爱"
    },
    {
      "start": 2718.24,
      "end": 2720.7799999999997,
      "text": "那我们就把这个品类的利润率"
    },
    {
      "start": 2720.7799999999997,
      "end": 2722.08,
      "text": "打到负1万百分之"
    },
    {
      "start": 2722.08,
      "end": 2723.66,
      "text": "Wayfair那帮人就不一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 2723.66,
      "end": 2725.56,
      "text": "他们做的是一件很难的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2725.56,
      "end": 2727.3599999999997,
      "text": "Amazon想干掉他们"
    },
    {
      "start": 2727.3599999999997,
      "end": 2728.18,
      "text": "但失败了"
    },
    {
      "start": 2728.18,
      "end": 2730.5,
      "text": "那些CEO在运营上非常强"
    },
    {
      "start": 2730.5,
      "end": 2731.8599999999997,
      "text": "真的很有能力"
    },
    {
      "start": 2731.8599999999997,
      "end": 2733.24,
      "text": "对我来说在Venture里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2733.24,
      "end": 2734.56,
      "text": "我总是在看这件事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2734.56,
      "end": 2737.22,
      "text": "会不会在这家公司建立规模之前"
    },
    {
      "start": 2737.22,
      "end": 2739.18,
      "text": "就变得对全世界都显而易见"
    },
    {
      "start": 2739.18,
      "end": 2741.52,
      "text": "还是说它既不明显很不同"
    },
    {
      "start": 2741.52,
      "end": 2742.8199999999997,
      "text": "又真的很难做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2742.8199999999997,
      "end": 2745.6,
      "text": "我觉得很多创始人在AI里都很挣扎"
    },
    {
      "start": 2745.6,
      "end": 2747.08,
      "text": "大家现在开始担心"
    },
    {
      "start": 2747.08,
      "end": 2749.34,
      "text": "在Jensen所说的AI五层蛋糕里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2749.34,
      "end": 2751.14,
      "text": "利润正在流向能源"
    },
    {
      "start": 2751.14,
      "end": 2752.3199999999997,
      "text": "流向数据中心"
    },
    {
      "start": 2752.3199999999997,
      "end": 2753.16,
      "text": "流向芯片"
    },
    {
      "start": 2753.16,
      "end": 2754.24,
      "text": "流向模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2754.24,
      "end": 2755.98,
      "text": "但并没有真正流向应用"
    },
    {
      "start": 2755.98,
      "end": 2758.48,
      "text": "Cursor和Cognition已经做到了规模"
    },
    {
      "start": 2758.48,
      "end": 2760.0,
      "text": "他们专注在Coding上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2760.0,
      "end": 2762.3199999999997,
      "text": "18个月前专注Coding的人并不多"
    },
    {
      "start": 2762.3199999999997,
      "end": 2764.66,
      "text": "OpenAI当时什么都在做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2764.66,
      "end": 2767.04,
      "text": "真正专注Coding的是Cursor"
    },
    {
      "start": 2767.04,
      "end": 2768.46,
      "text": "Cognition还有Anthropic"
    },
    {
      "start": 2768.46,
      "end": 2771.0,
      "text": "这种对代码的专注方向非常正确"
    },
    {
      "start": 2771.0,
      "end": 2773.22,
      "text": "Repli的创始人MJad Massad"
    },
    {
      "start": 2773.22,
      "end": 2774.2,
      "text": "发过一条推文"
    },
    {
      "start": 2774.2,
      "end": 2776.2,
      "text": "我觉得特别聪明大意是说"
    },
    {
      "start": 2776.2,
      "end": 2779.22,
      "text": "有点接近苦涩教训的一个事实是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2779.22,
      "end": 2781.7599999999998,
      "text": "coding可能是通往ASI"
    },
    {
      "start": 2781.7599999999998,
      "end": 2783.9199999999996,
      "text": "和有用AI的最短路径"
    },
    {
      "start": 2783.9199999999996,
      "end": 2785.9199999999996,
      "text": "因为如果你真的很擅长coding"
    },
    {
      "start": 2785.9199999999996,
      "end": 2787.4399999999996,
      "text": "你就可以给自己写代码"
    },
    {
      "start": 2787.4399999999996,
      "end": 2788.3999999999996,
      "text": "去做任何事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2788.3999999999996,
      "end": 2790.68,
      "text": "所以我觉得这些公司非常聪明"
    },
    {
      "start": 2790.68,
      "end": 2792.8399999999997,
      "text": "选择了高度聚焦在coding上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2792.8399999999997,
      "end": 2794.5,
      "text": "我觉得他们大概都已经"
    },
    {
      "start": 2794.5,
      "end": 2795.46,
      "text": "做到了一个规模"
    },
    {
      "start": 2795.46,
      "end": 2797.16,
      "text": "因此有了自己的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 2797.16,
      "end": 2799.68,
      "text": "我觉得cognition在做的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2799.68,
      "end": 2801.2799999999997,
      "text": "真的非常非常不同"
    },
    {
      "start": 2801.2799999999997,
      "end": 2803.0,
      "text": "但我觉得很多创始人"
    },
    {
      "start": 2803.0,
      "end": 2803.8999999999996,
      "text": "真的很挣扎"
    },
    {
      "start": 2803.8999999999996,
      "end": 2805.4199999999996,
      "text": "真的很挣扎"
    },
    {
      "start": 2805.42,
      "end": 2807.14,
      "text": "他们试图建立信心"
    },
    {
      "start": 2807.14,
      "end": 2810.1,
      "text": "认为自己可以在一些细分领域里先进去"
    },
    {
      "start": 2810.1,
      "end": 2813.04,
      "text": "并且在模型公司进入这个细分领域之前"
    },
    {
      "start": 2813.04,
      "end": 2814.96,
      "text": "拿到某种数据护城河"
    },
    {
      "start": 2814.96,
      "end": 2817.52,
      "text": "或者他们希望这个细分领域足够小"
    },
    {
      "start": 2817.52,
      "end": 2820.4,
      "text": "小到模型公司不会亲自去做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2820.4,
      "end": 2823.1800000000003,
      "text": "但又仍然能做出Venture级别的结果"
    },
    {
      "start": 2823.1800000000003,
      "end": 2825.32,
      "text": "这和你说过的Token Path有关吗"
    },
    {
      "start": 2825.32,
      "end": 2827.82,
      "text": "我知道你之前跟我用过这个说法"
    },
    {
      "start": 2827.82,
      "end": 2828.52,
      "text": "是的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2828.52,
      "end": 2831.36,
      "text": "我觉得这个说法来自Ultimator的Jaymon Ball"
    },
    {
      "start": 2831.36,
      "end": 2834.02,
      "text": "他说如果你是一家软件公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2834.02,
      "end": 2835.58,
      "text": "或者任何类型的AI公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2835.58,
      "end": 2837.7,
      "text": "你就必须在token path上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2837.7,
      "end": 2840.08,
      "text": "所以databricks在token path上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2840.08,
      "end": 2842.36,
      "text": "类似的公司也在token path上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2842.36,
      "end": 2844.04,
      "text": "如果你不在token path上"
    },
    {
      "start": 2844.04,
      "end": 2846.68,
      "text": "又不是在某个非常细分的领域里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2846.68,
      "end": 2848.04,
      "text": "那日子可能会很难"
    },
    {
      "start": 2848.04,
      "end": 2850.22,
      "text": "即便是这些垂直细分领域"
    },
    {
      "start": 2850.22,
      "end": 2853.16,
      "text": "我觉得如果你去和模型公司的人聊"
    },
    {
      "start": 2853.16,
      "end": 2855.64,
      "text": "他们对其中一些也会持怀疑态度"
    },
    {
      "start": 2855.64,
      "end": 2858.64,
      "text": "因为这些细分领域里生成的所有数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 2858.64,
      "end": 2859.64,
      "text": "都是来自人类"
    },
    {
      "start": 2859.64,
      "end": 2861.04,
      "text": "但你的赌注是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2861.04,
      "end": 2864.68,
      "text": "你能用这个狭窄垂直领域里的专有数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 2864.68,
      "end": 2867.24,
      "text": "训练出一个成本更低的模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2867.24,
      "end": 2869.94,
      "text": "而Frontier Lab永远做不到这个成本"
    },
    {
      "start": 2869.94,
      "end": 2871.62,
      "text": "也许这是个好赌注"
    },
    {
      "start": 2871.62,
      "end": 2873.7,
      "text": "但我觉得你必须非常非常小心"
    },
    {
      "start": 2873.7,
      "end": 2874.62,
      "text": "另一方面"
    },
    {
      "start": 2874.62,
      "end": 2876.38,
      "text": "如果这些Frontier Token"
    },
    {
      "start": 2876.38,
      "end": 2878.5,
      "text": "相对于其他Token的回报下降"
    },
    {
      "start": 2878.5,
      "end": 2881.7,
      "text": "应用层的价值创造会出现一次爆发"
    },
    {
      "start": 2881.7,
      "end": 2883.32,
      "text": "还有一个非常重要的点是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2883.32,
      "end": 2885.04,
      "text": "我相信只要Jensen想"
    },
    {
      "start": 2885.04,
      "end": 2888.34,
      "text": "他大概可以做出很接近Frontier的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2888.34,
      "end": 2890.34,
      "text": "用他自己的模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2890.34,
      "end": 2892.2000000000003,
      "text": "用他自己的模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2892.2000000000003,
      "end": 2894.54,
      "text": "他们在做一些非常酷的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2894.54,
      "end": 2896.78,
      "text": "这就是像Joel Spolsky会说的"
    },
    {
      "start": 2896.78,
      "end": 2898.44,
      "text": "把你的互补品商品化"
    },
    {
      "start": 2898.44,
      "end": 2900.3,
      "text": "我不觉得他想这么做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2900.3,
      "end": 2902.1200000000003,
      "text": "OpenAI和Anthropic"
    },
    {
      "start": 2902.1200000000003,
      "end": 2904.06,
      "text": "某种程度上正想对他做这件事"
    },
    {
      "start": 2904.06,
      "end": 2905.32,
      "text": "但没有成功"
    },
    {
      "start": 2905.32,
      "end": 2907.96,
      "text": "所以这很像是一个非常逻辑化的思考者"
    },
    {
      "start": 2907.96,
      "end": 2909.2200000000003,
      "text": "会做出的逻辑反制"
    },
    {
      "start": 2909.2200000000003,
      "end": 2910.6600000000003,
      "text": "我觉得你会看到"
    },
    {
      "start": 2910.6600000000003,
      "end": 2913.56,
      "text": "今天所谓的开源前沿模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2913.56,
      "end": 2915.6800000000003,
      "text": "主要是一些中国模型用的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2915.6800000000003,
      "end": 2917.26,
      "text": "偷来的美国token"
    },
    {
      "start": 2917.26,
      "end": 2919.3,
      "text": "有人告诉我DeepSeek"
    },
    {
      "start": 2919.3,
      "end": 2920.36,
      "text": "最新那个"
    },
    {
      "start": 2920.36,
      "end": 2922.1400000000003,
      "text": "或者也可能是最早那个"
    },
    {
      "start": 2922.1400000000003,
      "end": 2924.2200000000003,
      "text": "只用了15万条reasoning traces"
    },
    {
      "start": 2924.2200000000003,
      "end": 2925.92,
      "text": "如果你是一家中国公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 2925.92,
      "end": 2928.3,
      "text": "有很多办法可以把这件事洗干净"
    },
    {
      "start": 2928.3,
      "end": 2930.04,
      "text": "你可以打各种不同的API"
    },
    {
      "start": 2930.04,
      "end": 2931.6000000000004,
      "text": "让追踪变得很难"
    },
    {
      "start": 2931.6000000000004,
      "end": 2935.36,
      "text": "现在美国实验室在非常努力的做反蒸馏技术"
    },
    {
      "start": 2935.36,
      "end": 2938.02,
      "text": "但我确实觉得中国开源模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2938.02,
      "end": 2940.2000000000003,
      "text": "在资源非常受限的情况下"
    },
    {
      "start": 2940.2000000000003,
      "end": 2942.34,
      "text": "做出了很了不起的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 2942.34,
      "end": 2943.6800000000003,
      "text": "不过这里面有很多蒸馏"
    },
    {
      "start": 2943.6800000000003,
      "end": 2946.6400000000003,
      "text": "所以我认为除了没有足够的compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 2946.6400000000003,
      "end": 2948.1400000000003,
      "text": "去服务mythos之外"
    },
    {
      "start": 2948.14,
      "end": 2950.0,
      "text": "他们也不想让他被征留"
    },
    {
      "start": 2950.0,
      "end": 2951.66,
      "text": "他们想自己用mythos"
    },
    {
      "start": 2951.66,
      "end": 2952.66,
      "text": "自己去征留他"
    },
    {
      "start": 2952.66,
      "end": 2955.02,
      "text": "用他来对下一个模型做RL"
    },
    {
      "start": 2955.02,
      "end": 2956.56,
      "text": "或者做别的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 2956.56,
      "end": 2958.3599999999997,
      "text": "然后我觉得最终"
    },
    {
      "start": 2958.3599999999997,
      "end": 2960.7999999999997,
      "text": "如果open AI的经济账算得过来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2960.7999999999997,
      "end": 2962.48,
      "text": "前沿阵营里的任何一家"
    },
    {
      "start": 2962.48,
      "end": 2964.02,
      "text": "都会面临同样的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 2964.02,
      "end": 2966.3799999999997,
      "text": "这里会出现非常有意思的博弈论"
    },
    {
      "start": 2966.3799999999997,
      "end": 2969.0,
      "text": "因为这是一种新的囚徒困境"
    },
    {
      "start": 2969.0,
      "end": 2971.2999999999997,
      "text": "我们之前讲过老的囚徒困境"
    },
    {
      "start": 2971.2999999999997,
      "end": 2972.3199999999997,
      "text": "主要是围绕着"
    },
    {
      "start": 2972.3199999999997,
      "end": 2975.18,
      "text": "你处在一个必须花钱的囚徒困境里"
    },
    {
      "start": 2975.18,
      "end": 2976.94,
      "text": "新的囚徒困境会是"
    },
    {
      "start": 2976.94,
      "end": 2978.4,
      "text": "如果你站在前沿"
    },
    {
      "start": 2978.4,
      "end": 2981.2000000000003,
      "text": "你到底要不要通过API发布那个模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2981.2000000000003,
      "end": 2984.26,
      "text": "如果所有前沿公司都同意不这么做"
    },
    {
      "start": 2984.26,
      "end": 2986.94,
      "text": "那中国开源模型很快就会完蛋"
    },
    {
      "start": 2986.94,
      "end": 2989.04,
      "text": "但只要有一个人背叛协议"
    },
    {
      "start": 2989.04,
      "end": 2990.7200000000003,
      "text": "他就会拥有最好的模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 2990.7200000000003,
      "end": 2993.2200000000003,
      "text": "会有大量收入和现金流"
    },
    {
      "start": 2993.2200000000003,
      "end": 2994.84,
      "text": "当然资源等于智能"
    },
    {
      "start": 2994.84,
      "end": 2996.14,
      "text": "所以他会开始领先"
    },
    {
      "start": 2996.14,
      "end": 2999.76,
      "text": "然后这又会导致其他所有人也把模型放出来"
    },
    {
      "start": 2999.76,
      "end": 3001.52,
      "text": "所以这是新的博弈论"
    },
    {
      "start": 3001.52,
      "end": 3003.12,
      "text": "他有点像TSMC"
    },
    {
      "start": 3003.12,
      "end": 3005.1,
      "text": "Samsung和Intel之间的那种博弈"
    },
    {
      "start": 3005.1,
      "end": 3008.56,
      "text": "现实是如果像NVIDIA或AMD这样的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3008.56,
      "end": 3010.96,
      "text": "真的非常认真的使用其他晶圆厂"
    },
    {
      "start": 3010.96,
      "end": 3012.86,
      "text": "那家晶圆厂会很快变强"
    },
    {
      "start": 3012.86,
      "end": 3014.24,
      "text": "所以我确实认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 3014.24,
      "end": 3017.7599999999998,
      "text": "Jensen会让开源模型在一定时间内落后于前沿"
    },
    {
      "start": 3017.7599999999998,
      "end": 3020.3199999999997,
      "text": "我觉得这会是一件非常值得观察的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 3020.3199999999997,
      "end": 3021.48,
      "text": "顺便说一句"
    },
    {
      "start": 3021.48,
      "end": 3023.06,
      "text": "开源也是可以变现的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3023.06,
      "end": 3024.66,
      "text": "有一个误解"
    },
    {
      "start": 3024.66,
      "end": 3026.22,
      "text": "好像开源就是免费的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3026.22,
      "end": 3027.68,
      "text": "开源Token也要花钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 3027.68,
      "end": 3029.3199999999997,
      "text": "他们要消耗能源生产"
    },
    {
      "start": 3029.3199999999997,
      "end": 3030.2799999999997,
      "text": "他们也要能源"
    },
    {
      "start": 3030.2799999999997,
      "end": 3032.56,
      "text": "你需要靠GPU把成本赚回来"
    },
    {
      "start": 3032.56,
      "end": 3036.18,
      "text": "而开源模型公司几乎总是会拿收入分成"
    },
    {
      "start": 3036.18,
      "end": 3040.7799999999997,
      "text": "你们怎么让Atreides为Mithos 3、Mithos C的世界做准备"
    },
    {
      "start": 3040.7799999999997,
      "end": 3044.04,
      "text": "我们就是努力在网络安全上过度投入"
    },
    {
      "start": 3044.04,
      "end": 3046.44,
      "text": "有件事我在很多场合都说过"
    },
    {
      "start": 3046.44,
      "end": 3050.2599999999998,
      "text": "而且我真的相信就是每个人都需要一个安全词"
    },
    {
      "start": 3050.2599999999998,
      "end": 3052.68,
      "text": "每个人都应该把数字设备放下"
    },
    {
      "start": 3052.68,
      "end": 3055.44,
      "text": "真的去海边和家人设一个安全词"
    },
    {
      "start": 3055.44,
      "end": 3057.98,
      "text": "或者和公司设一个安全词"
    },
    {
      "start": 3057.98,
      "end": 3060.24,
      "text": "而且这个安全词不能是那种"
    },
    {
      "start": 3060.24,
      "end": 3062.64,
      "text": "可以被社会工程学套出来的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 3062.64,
      "end": 3064.7799999999997,
      "text": "这主要是为了避免网络犯罪"
    },
    {
      "start": 3064.7799999999997,
      "end": 3067.4799999999996,
      "text": "比如看起来像是你儿子女儿"
    },
    {
      "start": 3067.4799999999996,
      "end": 3068.9199999999996,
      "text": "祖父母父母"
    },
    {
      "start": 3068.9199999999996,
      "end": 3070.66,
      "text": "或者其他亲人给你FaceTime"
    },
    {
      "start": 3070.66,
      "end": 3074.0,
      "text": "但那其实是对他们极其准确的模拟"
    },
    {
      "start": 3074.0,
      "end": 3077.3799999999997,
      "text": "他知道一切还能根据他们过去说过的话"
    },
    {
      "start": 3077.3799999999997,
      "end": 3079.4799999999996,
      "text": "推断他们接下来可能会怎么说"
    },
    {
      "start": 3079.4799999999996,
      "end": 3081.02,
      "text": "然后他对你说"
    },
    {
      "start": 3081.02,
      "end": 3082.3399999999997,
      "text": "给我打一百万美元"
    },
    {
      "start": 3082.3399999999997,
      "end": 3083.68,
      "text": "这是防守"
    },
    {
      "start": 3083.68,
      "end": 3084.9199999999996,
      "text": "那进攻呢"
    },
    {
      "start": 3084.9199999999996,
      "end": 3085.8199999999997,
      "text": "我想问的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3085.8199999999997,
      "end": 3087.9399999999996,
      "text": "还有什么事是你仍然能做"
    },
    {
      "start": 3087.9399999999996,
      "end": 3089.16,
      "text": "但他做不了的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3089.16,
      "end": 3091.8399999999997,
      "text": "从分析的角度说这是个好问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 3091.8399999999997,
      "end": 3094.96,
      "text": "我最近刚又看了一遍《最后的武士》"
    },
    {
      "start": 3094.96,
      "end": 3096.72,
      "text": "还让公司里的人也去看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3096.72,
      "end": 3098.56,
      "text": "如果你没看过《最后的武士》"
    },
    {
      "start": 3098.56,
      "end": 3100.3399999999997,
      "text": "我强烈推荐你去看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3100.3399999999997,
      "end": 3103.74,
      "text": "这其实是一部经得起时间考验的电影"
    },
    {
      "start": 3103.74,
      "end": 3105.6,
      "text": "是20年前Tom Cruise演的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3105.6,
      "end": 3106.54,
      "text": "他的设定是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3106.54,
      "end": 3109.96,
      "text": "Tom Cruise是一个愤怒落魄的南北战争老兵"
    },
    {
      "start": 3109.96,
      "end": 3112.02,
      "text": "但他其实是个非常优秀的士兵"
    },
    {
      "start": 3112.02,
      "end": 3113.96,
      "text": "他之所以愤怒落魄"
    },
    {
      "start": 3113.96,
      "end": 3116.2599999999998,
      "text": "是因为他觉得自己参与了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3116.2599999999998,
      "end": 3118.3999999999996,
      "text": "对美洲原住民的恶劣行动"
    },
    {
      "start": 3118.4,
      "end": 3120.06,
      "text": "后来日本雇用了他"
    },
    {
      "start": 3120.06,
      "end": 3122.02,
      "text": "时间是在明治维新时期"
    },
    {
      "start": 3122.02,
      "end": 3123.64,
      "text": "日本政府里的现代派"
    },
    {
      "start": 3123.64,
      "end": 3126.1600000000003,
      "text": "雇他去训练一支由农民组成的军队"
    },
    {
      "start": 3126.1600000000003,
      "end": 3128.34,
      "text": "让他们学会怎么和武士作战"
    },
    {
      "start": 3128.34,
      "end": 3129.94,
      "text": "第一次战斗里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3129.94,
      "end": 3131.64,
      "text": "当然是武士赢了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3131.64,
      "end": 3132.88,
      "text": "虽然他们没有枪"
    },
    {
      "start": 3132.88,
      "end": 3134.06,
      "text": "他打得很英勇"
    },
    {
      "start": 3134.06,
      "end": 3135.78,
      "text": "所以武士决定不杀他"
    },
    {
      "start": 3135.78,
      "end": 3137.1800000000003,
      "text": "而是把他带回村子"
    },
    {
      "start": 3137.1800000000003,
      "end": 3138.7200000000003,
      "text": "后来他成了一名武士"
    },
    {
      "start": 3138.7200000000003,
      "end": 3140.88,
      "text": "对他来说这感觉很像南北战争"
    },
    {
      "start": 3140.88,
      "end": 3143.78,
      "text": "于是他站在武士一边作战"
    },
    {
      "start": 3143.78,
      "end": 3144.32,
      "text": "到最后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3144.32,
      "end": 3147.7000000000003,
      "text": "他被一个拿着机关枪的农民屠杀了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3147.7,
      "end": 3149.2,
      "text": "机关枪已经出现了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3149.2,
      "end": 3151.3799999999997,
      "text": "如果我们不能都成为机关枪的大师"
    },
    {
      "start": 3151.3799999999997,
      "end": 3152.9399999999996,
      "text": "我们就会被机关枪支配"
    },
    {
      "start": 3152.9399999999996,
      "end": 3155.16,
      "text": "所以我正在努力成为机关枪的大师"
    },
    {
      "start": 3155.16,
      "end": 3156.54,
      "text": "我也比较乐观"
    },
    {
      "start": 3156.54,
      "end": 3159.22,
      "text": "我觉得会有很长一段时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 3159.22,
      "end": 3162.22,
      "text": "就像如果你是一个50岁的武士老兵"
    },
    {
      "start": 3162.22,
      "end": 3163.2799999999997,
      "text": "打过很多仗"
    },
    {
      "start": 3163.2799999999997,
      "end": 3164.3999999999996,
      "text": "是用剑的大师"
    },
    {
      "start": 3164.3999999999996,
      "end": 3166.2799999999997,
      "text": "那你在使用机关枪时"
    },
    {
      "start": 3166.2799999999997,
      "end": 3167.46,
      "text": "也会有优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 3167.46,
      "end": 3169.3599999999997,
      "text": "我一生都在学习投资"
    },
    {
      "start": 3169.3599999999997,
      "end": 3170.7799999999997,
      "text": "所以我乐观的认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 3170.7799999999997,
      "end": 3172.52,
      "text": "我能够掌握这挺机关枪"
    },
    {
      "start": 3172.52,
      "end": 3174.3799999999997,
      "text": "也就是掌握这项新技术"
    },
    {
      "start": 3174.3799999999997,
      "end": 3176.46,
      "text": "把它融入我自己的流程"
    },
    {
      "start": 3176.46,
      "end": 3177.86,
      "text": "也融入我们公司的流程"
    },
    {
      "start": 3177.86,
      "end": 3179.32,
      "text": "这样我作为一个人类"
    },
    {
      "start": 3179.32,
      "end": 3181.6,
      "text": "还能在很长时间里继续贡献价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 3181.6,
      "end": 3184.2,
      "text": "但现在我也和大家一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 3184.2,
      "end": 3185.5,
      "text": "agent基本一直在跑"
    },
    {
      "start": 3185.5,
      "end": 3188.04,
      "text": "你问我最有用的agent是什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 3188.04,
      "end": 3189.32,
      "text": "说实话"
    },
    {
      "start": 3189.32,
      "end": 3190.52,
      "text": "最有用的那个"
    },
    {
      "start": 3190.52,
      "end": 3192.06,
      "text": "我想我之前也跟你说过"
    },
    {
      "start": 3192.06,
      "end": 3193.34,
      "text": "我不想影响你的生意"
    },
    {
      "start": 3193.34,
      "end": 3195.48,
      "text": "但对我来说最有用的agent"
    },
    {
      "start": 3195.48,
      "end": 3196.82,
      "text": "就是把播客里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3196.82,
      "end": 3199.46,
      "text": "我会感兴趣的要点总结的非常好"
    },
    {
      "start": 3199.46,
      "end": 3201.92,
      "text": "每天大概有六个小时的内容"
    },
    {
      "start": 3201.92,
      "end": 3204.2200000000003,
      "text": "我觉得按我的工作职责"
    },
    {
      "start": 3204.2200000000003,
      "end": 3205.7200000000003,
      "text": "我都应该去看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3205.72,
      "end": 3206.8799999999997,
      "text": "每次只要OpenAI"
    },
    {
      "start": 3206.8799999999997,
      "end": 3207.3399999999997,
      "text": "SecEye"
    },
    {
      "start": 3207.3399999999997,
      "end": 3207.98,
      "text": "Google Cursor"
    },
    {
      "start": 3207.98,
      "end": 3208.4399999999996,
      "text": "Fireworks"
    },
    {
      "start": 3208.4399999999996,
      "end": 3209.74,
      "text": "Basetin的人出来讲话"
    },
    {
      "start": 3209.74,
      "end": 3211.18,
      "text": "更不用说Jensen"
    },
    {
      "start": 3211.18,
      "end": 3211.5,
      "text": "Elon"
    },
    {
      "start": 3211.5,
      "end": 3212.48,
      "text": "Dario这些人"
    },
    {
      "start": 3212.48,
      "end": 3214.4599999999996,
      "text": "我都会觉得自己必须看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3214.4599999999996,
      "end": 3216.2999999999997,
      "text": "但我真的没有那么多时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 3216.2999999999997,
      "end": 3218.2,
      "text": "而且这里面确实是大海捞针"
    },
    {
      "start": 3218.2,
      "end": 3220.4199999999996,
      "text": "有一类东西是我总想看的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3220.4199999999996,
      "end": 3222.8999999999996,
      "text": "比如我对管理层薪酬非常敏感"
    },
    {
      "start": 3222.8999999999996,
      "end": 3224.4399999999996,
      "text": "他们的激励是什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 3224.4399999999996,
      "end": 3227.72,
      "text": "他们拿的只是普通的RSU还是PSU"
    },
    {
      "start": 3227.72,
      "end": 3229.4199999999996,
      "text": "如果是PSU"
    },
    {
      "start": 3229.4199999999996,
      "end": 3231.8599999999997,
      "text": "那这些PSU到底在激励他们做什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 3231.8599999999997,
      "end": 3234.98,
      "text": "如果系统能先把这些做一遍很好的出筛"
    },
    {
      "start": 3234.98,
      "end": 3237.04,
      "text": "就能给人省下很多时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 3237.04,
      "end": 3239.84,
      "text": "这样人就可以去做更有创造性的工作"
    },
    {
      "start": 3239.84,
      "end": 3241.68,
      "text": "而不是去翻proxy statement"
    },
    {
      "start": 3241.68,
      "end": 3243.72,
      "text": "把PSU那一段抠出来"
    },
    {
      "start": 3243.72,
      "end": 3246.04,
      "text": "再和之前所有proxy statement对比"
    },
    {
      "start": 3246.04,
      "end": 3247.56,
      "text": "看它发生了什么变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 3247.56,
      "end": 3249.6,
      "text": "因为这里面是有信号的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3249.6,
      "end": 3250.8,
      "text": "但非常耗人工"
    },
    {
      "start": 3250.8,
      "end": 3252.76,
      "text": "而这类工作特别适合AI"
    },
    {
      "start": 3252.76,
      "end": 3255.32,
      "text": "投资里显然还有各种类似的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 3255.32,
      "end": 3257.56,
      "text": "这是做投资人最令人兴奋"
    },
    {
      "start": 3257.56,
      "end": 3258.96,
      "text": "最让人激动的时代"
    },
    {
      "start": 3258.96,
      "end": 3259.88,
      "text": "确实是这样"
    },
    {
      "start": 3259.88,
      "end": 3262.7400000000002,
      "text": "但我也有一点开始有点担心了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3262.74,
      "end": 3265.4199999999996,
      "text": "你是说分化这个问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 3265.4199999999996,
      "end": 3266.9199999999996,
      "text": "你能不能再多讲一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3266.9199999999996,
      "end": 3267.9799999999996,
      "text": "是什么样的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 3267.9799999999996,
      "end": 3270.16,
      "text": "再把这种情况延续下去"
    },
    {
      "start": 3270.16,
      "end": 3272.3399999999997,
      "text": "我认识的人里像我这样"
    },
    {
      "start": 3272.3399999999997,
      "end": 3274.8199999999997,
      "text": "还不非常看多DDRMM的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3274.8199999999997,
      "end": 3275.7799999999997,
      "text": "一个都没有"
    },
    {
      "start": 3275.7799999999997,
      "end": 3276.9599999999996,
      "text": "真的一个都没有"
    },
    {
      "start": 3276.9599999999996,
      "end": 3279.02,
      "text": "现在AI里有很多有意思的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 3279.02,
      "end": 3281.12,
      "text": "其中一个是从横截面来看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3281.12,
      "end": 3282.4599999999996,
      "text": "估值完全不合理"
    },
    {
      "start": 3282.4599999999996,
      "end": 3284.04,
      "text": "就是明摆着不合理"
    },
    {
      "start": 3284.04,
      "end": 3285.66,
      "text": "不可能都同时成立"
    },
    {
      "start": 3285.66,
      "end": 3287.74,
      "text": "有些半导体设备公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3287.74,
      "end": 3289.2599999999998,
      "text": "按下个季度年化利润算"
    },
    {
      "start": 3289.2599999999998,
      "end": 3290.2599999999998,
      "text": "交易在40倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 3290.2599999999998,
      "end": 3291.8599999999997,
      "text": "而DRMM公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3291.86,
      "end": 3293.48,
      "text": "在上一个周期顶部的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3293.48,
      "end": 3294.86,
      "text": "交易在中国位数倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 3294.86,
      "end": 3297.7200000000003,
      "text": "当时一度大概是5倍对12倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 3297.7200000000003,
      "end": 3300.38,
      "text": "某个时候甚至是3倍对45倍"
    },
    {
      "start": 3300.38,
      "end": 3301.76,
      "text": "这两边不可能都对"
    },
    {
      "start": 3301.76,
      "end": 3302.6400000000003,
      "text": "是的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3302.6400000000003,
      "end": 3305.08,
      "text": "半导体CAPEX公司的商业模式"
    },
    {
      "start": 3305.08,
      "end": 3307.42,
      "text": "确实比存储公司的商业模式"
    },
    {
      "start": 3307.42,
      "end": 3308.54,
      "text": "改善的更多"
    },
    {
      "start": 3308.54,
      "end": 3311.26,
      "text": "我们还不知道HBM会把存储公司的商业模式"
    },
    {
      "start": 3311.26,
      "end": 3312.3,
      "text": "改善到什么程度"
    },
    {
      "start": 3312.3,
      "end": 3312.82,
      "text": "是的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3312.82,
      "end": 3315.56,
      "text": "他们确实有一部分来自零部件"
    },
    {
      "start": 3315.56,
      "end": 3317.7400000000002,
      "text": "和维护的经常性收入"
    },
    {
      "start": 3317.7400000000002,
      "end": 3320.38,
      "text": "但这不值得给出10倍的估值倍数差"
    },
    {
      "start": 3320.38,
      "end": 3321.78,
      "text": "我觉得很难解释"
    },
    {
      "start": 3321.78,
      "end": 3322.88,
      "text": "NVIDIA这样的估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 3322.88,
      "end": 3324.44,
      "text": "4月初的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3324.44,
      "end": 3325.98,
      "text": "相对整个市场来看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3325.98,
      "end": 3328.1400000000003,
      "text": "它基本上已经是过去10年"
    },
    {
      "start": 3328.1400000000003,
      "end": 3330.34,
      "text": "或者12年里最便宜的区间"
    },
    {
      "start": 3330.34,
      "end": 3331.96,
      "text": "绝对估值也很便宜"
    },
    {
      "start": 3331.96,
      "end": 3333.7200000000003,
      "text": "但你很难把这个估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 3333.7200000000003,
      "end": 3335.78,
      "text": "和GE、Vernova这样的估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 3335.78,
      "end": 3337.1600000000003,
      "text": "放在一起解释"
    },
    {
      "start": 3337.1600000000003,
      "end": 3338.6600000000003,
      "text": "因为后者的估值里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3338.6600000000003,
      "end": 3339.78,
      "text": "隐含的是NVIDIA"
    },
    {
      "start": 3339.78,
      "end": 3341.5600000000004,
      "text": "会丢掉一个难以想象的份额"
    },
    {
      "start": 3341.5600000000004,
      "end": 3343.42,
      "text": "所以从横截面来看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3343.42,
      "end": 3344.7200000000003,
      "text": "估值差异非常大"
    },
    {
      "start": 3344.7200000000003,
      "end": 3347.0800000000004,
      "text": "原因是我们现在处在短缺里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3347.0800000000004,
      "end": 3349.52,
      "text": "质量最低的公司反而表现最好"
    },
    {
      "start": 3349.52,
      "end": 3351.32,
      "text": "如果你是油气投资人"
    },
    {
      "start": 3351.32,
      "end": 3352.6400000000003,
      "text": "或者矿业投资人"
    },
    {
      "start": 3352.6400000000003,
      "end": 3353.88,
      "text": "自然资源投资人"
    },
    {
      "start": 3353.88,
      "end": 3355.9,
      "text": "而且你很熟悉成本曲线的思维"
    },
    {
      "start": 3355.9,
      "end": 3357.84,
      "text": "这一点对你会非常直观"
    },
    {
      "start": 3357.84,
      "end": 3360.4,
      "text": "在一个真正的商品牛市里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3360.4,
      "end": 3362.82,
      "text": "成本最高的商品供应商"
    },
    {
      "start": 3362.82,
      "end": 3363.56,
      "text": "涨得最多"
    },
    {
      "start": 3363.56,
      "end": 3365.02,
      "text": "因为他们受益最大"
    },
    {
      "start": 3365.02,
      "end": 3366.52,
      "text": "他们会从濒临破产"
    },
    {
      "start": 3366.52,
      "end": 3367.86,
      "text": "变成现金流喷涌"
    },
    {
      "start": 3367.86,
      "end": 3369.6200000000003,
      "text": "我觉得这也是商品投资"
    },
    {
      "start": 3369.6200000000003,
      "end": 3370.8,
      "text": "特别难的一个原因"
    },
    {
      "start": 3370.8,
      "end": 3372.94,
      "text": "因为在周期里质量会跑赢"
    },
    {
      "start": 3372.94,
      "end": 3374.84,
      "text": "但真正所有的超额收益"
    },
    {
      "start": 3374.84,
      "end": 3376.76,
      "text": "往往发生在下行周期"
    },
    {
      "start": 3376.76,
      "end": 3378.6600000000003,
      "text": "那些高成本公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3378.6600000000003,
      "end": 3381.1800000000003,
      "text": "在短缺和商品牛市里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3381.18,
      "end": 3382.04,
      "text": "曾经涨上天"
    },
    {
      "start": 3382.04,
      "end": 3383.54,
      "text": "后来就会破产"
    },
    {
      "start": 3383.54,
      "end": 3385.04,
      "text": "或者发生类似的事情"
    },
    {
      "start": 3385.04,
      "end": 3386.44,
      "text": "你现在在每个行业"
    },
    {
      "start": 3386.44,
      "end": 3387.6,
      "text": "都能看到这种事"
    },
    {
      "start": 3387.6,
      "end": 3388.94,
      "text": "质量最低的玩家"
    },
    {
      "start": 3388.94,
      "end": 3390.02,
      "text": "在不同的行业里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3390.02,
      "end": 3391.56,
      "text": "本来是hyperscaler"
    },
    {
      "start": 3391.56,
      "end": 3392.66,
      "text": "和买家都讨厌"
    },
    {
      "start": 3392.66,
      "end": 3393.52,
      "text": "都嫌弃的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3393.52,
      "end": 3394.66,
      "text": "因为他们成本高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3394.66,
      "end": 3395.58,
      "text": "不可靠零部件"
    },
    {
      "start": 3395.58,
      "end": 3396.6,
      "text": "故障率高等等"
    },
    {
      "start": 3396.6,
      "end": 3398.3999999999996,
      "text": "但他们现在全卖光了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3398.3999999999996,
      "end": 3399.1,
      "text": "还在涨价"
    },
    {
      "start": 3399.1,
      "end": 3400.58,
      "text": "然后这种情况"
    },
    {
      "start": 3400.58,
      "end": 3402.14,
      "text": "又引起了X上一些"
    },
    {
      "start": 3402.14,
      "end": 3403.4199999999996,
      "text": "散户账号的兴趣"
    },
    {
      "start": 3403.4199999999996,
      "end": 3404.8199999999997,
      "text": "这些股票就被一路"
    },
    {
      "start": 3404.8199999999997,
      "end": 3405.72,
      "text": "买到天上去"
    },
    {
      "start": 3405.72,
      "end": 3407.7599999999998,
      "text": "反过来一些质量"
    },
    {
      "start": 3407.7599999999998,
      "end": 3409.14,
      "text": "更高的表达方式"
    },
    {
      "start": 3409.14,
      "end": 3411.16,
      "text": "实际上表现的非常落后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3411.16,
      "end": 3412.8599999999997,
      "text": "作为投资人这很难"
    },
    {
      "start": 3412.8599999999997,
      "end": 3414.74,
      "text": "因为你几乎毫无疑问的知道"
    },
    {
      "start": 3414.74,
      "end": 3417.56,
      "text": "那个三个月或六个月涨了十倍的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 3417.56,
      "end": 3418.58,
      "text": "最后会掉回去"
    },
    {
      "start": 3418.58,
      "end": 3422.22,
      "text": "当然这也取决于他们拿这笔现金去做什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 3422.22,
      "end": 3424.2,
      "text": "但这些低质量公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3424.2,
      "end": 3426.7999999999997,
      "text": "真的会用现金做很聪明的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 3426.7999999999997,
      "end": 3428.54,
      "text": "所以让我有点担心的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3428.54,
      "end": 3431.56,
      "text": "一年前非常怀疑的人现在已经不怀疑了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3431.56,
      "end": 3434.8199999999997,
      "text": "但我再把这件事和那些高质量公司的估值"
    },
    {
      "start": 3434.8199999999997,
      "end": 3435.8999999999996,
      "text": "放在一起看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3435.8999999999996,
      "end": 3438.2599999999998,
      "text": "他们其实并没有被拉得很高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3438.2599999999998,
      "end": 3440.2799999999997,
      "text": "这又让我感觉好一些"
    },
    {
      "start": 3440.28,
      "end": 3442.1800000000003,
      "text": "不过确实有一种感觉"
    },
    {
      "start": 3442.1800000000003,
      "end": 3445.1000000000004,
      "text": "我一直觉得2024年和2025年"
    },
    {
      "start": 3445.1000000000004,
      "end": 3447.0600000000004,
      "text": "有人问AI有没有泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 3447.0600000000004,
      "end": 3448.34,
      "text": "或者谈AI泡沫"
    },
    {
      "start": 3448.34,
      "end": 3449.6200000000003,
      "text": "这件事挺好笑的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3449.6200000000003,
      "end": 3452.92,
      "text": "因为核能泡沫和量子泡沫就摆在你面前"
    },
    {
      "start": 3452.92,
      "end": 3454.6800000000003,
      "text": "我们到底在讨论什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 3454.6800000000003,
      "end": 3457.3,
      "text": "AI这个东西是真实的多的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3457.3,
      "end": 3459.92,
      "text": "但核能量子那些有点荒唐的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 3459.92,
      "end": 3462.0,
      "text": "可能已经蔓延到了一些更投机"
    },
    {
      "start": 3462.0,
      "end": 3462.98,
      "text": "质量更低"
    },
    {
      "start": 3462.98,
      "end": 3464.32,
      "text": "市值更小的名字上"
    },
    {
      "start": 3464.32,
      "end": 3467.5,
      "text": "如果你在X或Reddit上有很大的影响力"
    },
    {
      "start": 3467.5,
      "end": 3469.98,
      "text": "这类股票就很容易被推起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 3469.98,
      "end": 3471.22,
      "text": "这让我有点害怕"
    },
    {
      "start": 3471.22,
      "end": 3473.86,
      "text": "但我只是希望AI空投能多一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3473.86,
      "end": 3475.84,
      "text": "比如我希望存储空投能多一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3475.84,
      "end": 3477.26,
      "text": "我之所以这么想"
    },
    {
      "start": 3477.26,
      "end": 3478.28,
      "text": "有一个原因是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3478.28,
      "end": 3479.6,
      "text": "Asteria这只股票"
    },
    {
      "start": 3479.6,
      "end": 3481.18,
      "text": "我已经关注了很长时间"
    },
    {
      "start": 3481.18,
      "end": 3483.48,
      "text": "看空Asteria的人很多"
    },
    {
      "start": 3483.48,
      "end": 3484.88,
      "text": "这点我很喜欢"
    },
    {
      "start": 3484.88,
      "end": 3485.42,
      "text": "挺好"
    },
    {
      "start": 3485.42,
      "end": 3487.4,
      "text": "我最早是在Series C投的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3487.4,
      "end": 3488.96,
      "text": "所以如果你觉得"
    },
    {
      "start": 3488.96,
      "end": 3490.98,
      "text": "能让我用不同方式给它定价"
    },
    {
      "start": 3490.98,
      "end": 3492.32,
      "text": "那就祝你好运"
    },
    {
      "start": 3492.32,
      "end": 3494.62,
      "text": "要是你觉得它是所谓的Copper loser"
    },
    {
      "start": 3494.62,
      "end": 3495.96,
      "text": "那也祝你好运"
    },
    {
      "start": 3495.96,
      "end": 3497.72,
      "text": "市场里还有各种basket"
    },
    {
      "start": 3497.72,
      "end": 3498.72,
      "text": "带杠杆的basket"
    },
    {
      "start": 3498.72,
      "end": 3500.8599999999997,
      "text": "你被归到哪个basket里非常重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 3500.8599999999997,
      "end": 3502.9399999999996,
      "text": "比如铜光模块DARAM"
    },
    {
      "start": 3502.9399999999996,
      "end": 3505.5,
      "text": "今年发生了一件很有意思的事是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3505.5,
      "end": 3507.7999999999997,
      "text": "2024年和2025年"
    },
    {
      "start": 3507.7999999999997,
      "end": 3510.4199999999996,
      "text": "AI这笔交易基本是一起走的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3510.4199999999996,
      "end": 3512.12,
      "text": "你可以做多GPU compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 3512.12,
      "end": 3513.12,
      "text": "scale up networking"
    },
    {
      "start": 3513.12,
      "end": 3514.9199999999996,
      "text": "光学scale同时做空电力"
    },
    {
      "start": 3514.9199999999996,
      "end": 3516.8999999999996,
      "text": "从风险管理角度看"
    },
    {
      "start": 3516.8999999999996,
      "end": 3518.14,
      "text": "这个交易是有效的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3518.14,
      "end": 3519.7799999999997,
      "text": "因为我非常在意factor"
    },
    {
      "start": 3519.7799999999997,
      "end": 3521.7799999999997,
      "text": "但今年1月这一切都散了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3521.7799999999997,
      "end": 3523.66,
      "text": "比如scale up networking会暴涨"
    },
    {
      "start": 3523.66,
      "end": 3524.8799999999997,
      "text": "而scale out在下跌"
    },
    {
      "start": 3524.8799999999997,
      "end": 3527.64,
      "text": "或者DRAM大幅跑输NND和HDD"
    },
    {
      "start": 3527.64,
      "end": 3530.2599999999998,
      "text": "AI内部这些横截面的相关性"
    },
    {
      "start": 3530.2599999999998,
      "end": 3531.12,
      "text": "真的崩了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3531.12,
      "end": 3532.6,
      "text": "你必须看得非常细"
    },
    {
      "start": 3532.6,
      "end": 3535.16,
      "text": "你不能再用一些半导体设备股"
    },
    {
      "start": 3535.16,
      "end": 3536.7599999999998,
      "text": "或者NAND来对冲memory了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3536.7599999999998,
      "end": 3539.02,
      "text": "一月份所有横截面的关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 3539.02,
      "end": 3540.94,
      "text": "都发生了很有意思的变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 3540.94,
      "end": 3543.0,
      "text": "我觉得原因之一可能是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3543.0,
      "end": 3545.62,
      "text": "AI的质量到了一个阶段"
    },
    {
      "start": 3545.62,
      "end": 3546.7,
      "text": "突然让很多人很容易"
    },
    {
      "start": 3546.7,
      "end": 3548.7,
      "text": "把这些不同子行业研究得很明白"
    },
    {
      "start": 3548.7,
      "end": 3550.3799999999997,
      "text": "然后开始交易它们"
    },
    {
      "start": 3550.3799999999997,
      "end": 3552.3199999999997,
      "text": "再把它们放进不同的basket"
    },
    {
      "start": 3552.3199999999997,
      "end": 3555.2999999999997,
      "text": "这些basket又会影响AI带来价格效率"
    },
    {
      "start": 3555.2999999999997,
      "end": 3556.1,
      "text": "对 没错"
    },
    {
      "start": 3556.1,
      "end": 3559.66,
      "text": "所以我觉得在那些高质量公司之外"
    },
    {
      "start": 3559.66,
      "end": 3561.1,
      "text": "还有一些最大的机会"
    },
    {
      "start": 3561.1,
      "end": 3563.8399999999997,
      "text": "这些高质量公司我认为能长期复利"
    },
    {
      "start": 3563.8399999999997,
      "end": 3565.0,
      "text": "也比较安全"
    },
    {
      "start": 3565.0,
      "end": 3567.22,
      "text": "不像那些低质量公司那么吓人"
    },
    {
      "start": 3567.22,
      "end": 3570.74,
      "text": "机会在于那些被错误分类的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3570.74,
      "end": 3573.64,
      "text": "比如Asteria就被放进了很多Copper loser basket"
    },
    {
      "start": 3573.64,
      "end": 3575.96,
      "text": "但Asteria最大的产品会是Switch"
    },
    {
      "start": 3575.96,
      "end": 3579.7999999999997,
      "text": "他们会同时用铜和光把Switch连接到Accelerator"
    },
    {
      "start": 3579.7999999999997,
      "end": 3581.8199999999997,
      "text": "所以从定义上说"
    },
    {
      "start": 3581.8199999999997,
      "end": 3583.88,
      "text": "如果你是一家Switch公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3583.88,
      "end": 3585.7799999999997,
      "text": "或者是一家Accelerator公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3585.78,
      "end": 3587.26,
      "text": "你就不可能是Copper loser"
    },
    {
      "start": 3587.26,
      "end": 3589.6600000000003,
      "text": "因为你在那条连接的另一端"
    },
    {
      "start": 3589.6600000000003,
      "end": 3591.94,
      "text": "我想请你对每家主要公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3591.94,
      "end": 3593.1400000000003,
      "text": "都简单聊一两句"
    },
    {
      "start": 3593.1400000000003,
      "end": 3595.82,
      "text": "比如Google Microsoft Amazon"
    },
    {
      "start": 3595.82,
      "end": 3597.6000000000004,
      "text": "这些上市的大玩家"
    },
    {
      "start": 3597.6000000000004,
      "end": 3599.7200000000003,
      "text": "我感觉我总是忘了问你"
    },
    {
      "start": 3599.7200000000003,
      "end": 3602.1200000000003,
      "text": "因为对话总是围绕那些"
    },
    {
      "start": 3602.1200000000003,
      "end": 3603.84,
      "text": "令人兴奋的新公司展开"
    },
    {
      "start": 3603.84,
      "end": 3605.02,
      "text": "先说Google"
    },
    {
      "start": 3605.02,
      "end": 3606.5600000000004,
      "text": "去年它非常强"
    },
    {
      "start": 3606.5600000000004,
      "end": 3607.84,
      "text": "因为它有TPU优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 3607.84,
      "end": 3609.6400000000003,
      "text": "但这个优势现在已经没了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3609.6400000000003,
      "end": 3611.0600000000004,
      "text": "我觉得他们仍然处在"
    },
    {
      "start": 3611.0600000000004,
      "end": 3611.96,
      "text": "很好位置的原因"
    },
    {
      "start": 3611.96,
      "end": 3612.88,
      "text": "很简单"
    },
    {
      "start": 3612.88,
      "end": 3614.36,
      "text": "他们拥有最多的pew"
    },
    {
      "start": 3614.36,
      "end": 3615.76,
      "text": "我们刚才也聊过"
    },
    {
      "start": 3615.76,
      "end": 3617.6800000000003,
      "text": "在供给短缺的时候"
    },
    {
      "start": 3617.6800000000003,
      "end": 3620.32,
      "text": "已有装机基础的价值会更高"
    },
    {
      "start": 3620.32,
      "end": 3621.7200000000003,
      "text": "他们拥有最大的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3621.7200000000003,
      "end": 3622.78,
      "text": "computer装机基础"
    },
    {
      "start": 3622.78,
      "end": 3624.26,
      "text": "我有点惊讶的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3624.26,
      "end": 3625.48,
      "text": "他们一直没能拿出"
    },
    {
      "start": 3625.48,
      "end": 3626.28,
      "text": "更强的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 3626.28,
      "end": 3627.94,
      "text": "Google I.O.就在这周"
    },
    {
      "start": 3627.94,
      "end": 3628.9,
      "text": "对"
    },
    {
      "start": 3628.9,
      "end": 3629.6400000000003,
      "text": "就是这周"
    },
    {
      "start": 3629.6400000000003,
      "end": 3631.2000000000003,
      "text": "如果他们这次发布的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 3631.2000000000003,
      "end": 3633.1000000000004,
      "text": "连稍微超过OpenAI"
    },
    {
      "start": 3633.1000000000004,
      "end": 3634.36,
      "text": "或者Cloud的都没有"
    },
    {
      "start": 3634.36,
      "end": 3636.0400000000004,
      "text": "那就很有意思了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3636.0400000000004,
      "end": 3637.76,
      "text": "这对Google不是灾难"
    },
    {
      "start": 3637.76,
      "end": 3638.6400000000003,
      "text": "只是很有意思"
    },
    {
      "start": 3638.6400000000003,
      "end": 3640.1600000000003,
      "text": "它说明我们刚才讨论的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3640.1600000000003,
      "end": 3640.76,
      "text": "NVIDIA Effect"
    },
    {
      "start": 3640.76,
      "end": 3642.34,
      "text": "可能比我想象的还要强"
    },
    {
      "start": 3642.34,
      "end": 3643.6800000000003,
      "text": "我非常好奇"
    },
    {
      "start": 3643.6800000000003,
      "end": 3644.76,
      "text": "五天之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3644.76,
      "end": 3646.78,
      "text": "Google发布新东西以后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3646.78,
      "end": 3649.6600000000003,
      "text": "Pirito Frontier到底会变成什么样"
    },
    {
      "start": 3649.6600000000003,
      "end": 3651.5200000000004,
      "text": "这对他们来说是一张大牌"
    },
    {
      "start": 3651.5200000000004,
      "end": 3653.86,
      "text": "不过Google拥有的数据量"
    },
    {
      "start": 3653.86,
      "end": 3654.9,
      "text": "还有YouTube数据"
    },
    {
      "start": 3654.9,
      "end": 3656.0600000000004,
      "text": "确实非常有价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 3656.0600000000004,
      "end": 3657.88,
      "text": "在Robotics的世界里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3657.88,
      "end": 3658.78,
      "text": "它真的有价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 3658.78,
      "end": 3660.7400000000002,
      "text": "再加上他们拥有的Compute"
    },
    {
      "start": 3660.7400000000002,
      "end": 3662.32,
      "text": "以及他们的搜索业务"
    },
    {
      "start": 3662.32,
      "end": 3664.7400000000002,
      "text": "Google永远不会处在一个差的位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 3664.7400000000002,
      "end": 3667.6000000000004,
      "text": "你也能从GCP的狂飙里看到这一点"
    },
    {
      "start": 3667.6000000000004,
      "end": 3670.6200000000003,
      "text": "你也必须给Zuckerberg和Meta认可"
    },
    {
      "start": 3670.6200000000003,
      "end": 3673.76,
      "text": "他把Meta在内部变成一家AI First公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3673.76,
      "end": 3674.94,
      "text": "这件事做得很好"
    },
    {
      "start": 3674.94,
      "end": 3676.0800000000004,
      "text": "我确实认为"
    },
    {
      "start": 3676.0800000000004,
      "end": 3678.0400000000004,
      "text": "在这些真正的互联网巨头里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3678.0400000000004,
      "end": 3680.1600000000003,
      "text": "他是唯一一个做到这件事的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 3680.1600000000003,
      "end": 3682.2000000000003,
      "text": "这点我非常认可他"
    },
    {
      "start": 3682.2000000000003,
      "end": 3684.8,
      "text": "他当时愿意为人才付高价"
    },
    {
      "start": 3684.8,
      "end": 3687.0800000000004,
      "text": "签下那些10亿美元级别的合约"
    },
    {
      "start": 3687.0800000000004,
      "end": 3688.7400000000002,
      "text": "我也非常认可"
    },
    {
      "start": 3688.7400000000002,
      "end": 3690.1200000000003,
      "text": "那个Talent和Muse"
    },
    {
      "start": 3690.1200000000003,
      "end": 3692.1600000000003,
      "text": "我觉得是一个非常大的正面意外"
    },
    {
      "start": 3692.1600000000003,
      "end": 3694.0,
      "text": "这是MSL的第一个模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 3694.0,
      "end": 3696.76,
      "text": "它还不在Frontier的Parrot of Frontier上"
    },
    {
      "start": 3696.76,
      "end": 3699.6000000000004,
      "text": "还比不上XAI Google的一个模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 3699.6000000000004,
      "end": 3701.1600000000003,
      "text": "还有OpenAI和Cloud"
    },
    {
      "start": 3701.1600000000003,
      "end": 3702.6800000000003,
      "text": "但已经很接近了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3702.68,
      "end": 3704.12,
      "text": "这让我非常印象深刻"
    },
    {
      "start": 3704.12,
      "end": 3707.08,
      "text": "所以我觉得Meta的位置比之前更好了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3707.08,
      "end": 3709.12,
      "text": "绝对位置还没有Google那么强"
    },
    {
      "start": 3709.12,
      "end": 3710.94,
      "text": "但它的位置在改善"
    },
    {
      "start": 3710.94,
      "end": 3713.58,
      "text": "在市场里变化速度比当前水平更重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 3713.58,
      "end": 3716.72,
      "text": "尤其是在三年这种较短的时间框架里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3716.72,
      "end": 3719.98,
      "text": "更长时间看竞争优势的水平往往会占主导"
    },
    {
      "start": 3719.98,
      "end": 3721.2599999999998,
      "text": "但即便如此"
    },
    {
      "start": 3721.2599999999998,
      "end": 3723.02,
      "text": "变化本身也真的很重要"
    },
    {
      "start": 3723.02,
      "end": 3725.64,
      "text": "Amazon我觉得位置也很强"
    },
    {
      "start": 3725.64,
      "end": 3727.7,
      "text": "因为有Trainium未来18个月"
    },
    {
      "start": 3727.7,
      "end": 3729.8199999999997,
      "text": "你会在他们零售业务里看到"
    },
    {
      "start": 3729.8199999999997,
      "end": 3732.3399999999997,
      "text": "Robotics带来真实的P&L效率提升"
    },
    {
      "start": 3732.34,
      "end": 3734.1400000000003,
      "text": "我其实觉得Nova"
    },
    {
      "start": 3734.1400000000003,
      "end": 3735.7400000000002,
      "text": "也就是他们的内部模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 3735.7400000000002,
      "end": 3737.04,
      "text": "还没到MUSE的水平"
    },
    {
      "start": 3737.04,
      "end": 3739.6200000000003,
      "text": "但比市场给他的评价要好"
    },
    {
      "start": 3739.6200000000003,
      "end": 3740.78,
      "text": "再说Microsoft"
    },
    {
      "start": 3740.78,
      "end": 3743.2000000000003,
      "text": "我觉得Satir是一个非常聪明的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 3743.2000000000003,
      "end": 3744.9,
      "text": "但在投资者交流里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3744.9,
      "end": 3746.48,
      "text": "大家谈论他的方式"
    },
    {
      "start": 3746.48,
      "end": 3747.9,
      "text": "已经不是以前那样了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3747.9,
      "end": 3749.84,
      "text": "我喜欢Satir也很敬佩他"
    },
    {
      "start": 3749.84,
      "end": 3752.2400000000002,
      "text": "我觉得他是一位非常出色的CEO"
    },
    {
      "start": 3752.2400000000002,
      "end": 3753.98,
      "text": "他做出的那些决定"
    },
    {
      "start": 3753.98,
      "end": 3755.34,
      "text": "我也很认可"
    },
    {
      "start": 3755.34,
      "end": 3757.02,
      "text": "但他确实在三年时间里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3757.02,
      "end": 3758.82,
      "text": "从我们要让Google跳舞"
    },
    {
      "start": 3758.82,
      "end": 3760.46,
      "text": "变成了Copilot的产品经理"
    },
    {
      "start": 3760.46,
      "end": 3762.0,
      "text": "我真的很想知道"
    },
    {
      "start": 3762.0,
      "end": 3764.3,
      "text": "在OpenAI那次政变尝试期间"
    },
    {
      "start": 3764.3,
      "end": 3766.72,
      "text": "Satya会不会后悔自己的决定"
    },
    {
      "start": 3766.72,
      "end": 3768.06,
      "text": "Satya内心深处"
    },
    {
      "start": 3768.06,
      "end": 3770.84,
      "text": "会不会希望自己当时支持的是Illia"
    },
    {
      "start": 3770.84,
      "end": 3771.6,
      "text": "而不是Sam"
    },
    {
      "start": 3771.6,
      "end": 3775.04,
      "text": "会不会希望今天真正掌管OpenAI的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3775.04,
      "end": 3776.08,
      "text": "Illia和Mira"
    },
    {
      "start": 3776.08,
      "end": 3777.36,
      "text": "我真的很想知道"
    },
    {
      "start": 3777.36,
      "end": 3778.74,
      "text": "因为我觉得在那个世界里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3778.74,
      "end": 3781.66,
      "text": "Microsoft和OpenAI的合作关系"
    },
    {
      "start": 3781.66,
      "end": 3782.76,
      "text": "可能会非常不一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 3782.76,
      "end": 3785.0,
      "text": "我觉得这是一个非常有意思的问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 3785.0,
      "end": 3787.14,
      "text": "只是我们永远不会知道答案"
    },
    {
      "start": 3787.14,
      "end": 3788.84,
      "text": "但我还是很认可它"
    },
    {
      "start": 3788.84,
      "end": 3791.42,
      "text": "它现在做的事就是在承担风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 3791.42,
      "end": 3794.0,
      "text": "这样他们才有机会获得回报"
    },
    {
      "start": 3794.0,
      "end": 3797.06,
      "text": "这就回到你在不确定性"
    },
    {
      "start": 3797.06,
      "end": 3798.7200000000003,
      "text": "追行区里必须做的那些决定"
    },
    {
      "start": 3798.7200000000003,
      "end": 3800.08,
      "text": "不只是花多少钱"
    },
    {
      "start": 3800.08,
      "end": 3801.4,
      "text": "还包括把钱花在什么地方"
    },
    {
      "start": 3801.4,
      "end": 3803.76,
      "text": "我觉得微软在2025年初"
    },
    {
      "start": 3803.76,
      "end": 3805.1,
      "text": "有那么一瞬间退缩了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3805.1,
      "end": 3806.98,
      "text": "他们原来有一套算法"
    },
    {
      "start": 3806.98,
      "end": 3809.44,
      "text": "我们投入这么多CAPEX"
    },
    {
      "start": 3809.44,
      "end": 3810.62,
      "text": "就能得到这样的回报"
    },
    {
      "start": 3810.62,
      "end": 3812.82,
      "text": "那套算法当时有点失灵了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3812.82,
      "end": 3814.92,
      "text": "如果你退缩就会失去位置"
    },
    {
      "start": 3814.92,
      "end": 3816.58,
      "text": "你会失去很多分配额度"
    },
    {
      "start": 3816.58,
      "end": 3817.88,
      "text": "而且很难拿回来"
    },
    {
      "start": 3817.88,
      "end": 3819.1800000000003,
      "text": "所以他们退缩了一下"
    },
    {
      "start": 3819.1800000000003,
      "end": 3821.0,
      "text": "现在SATIA正在做的决定"
    },
    {
      "start": 3821.0,
      "end": 3822.96,
      "text": "市场因此惩罚了他们"
    },
    {
      "start": 3822.96,
      "end": 3825.54,
      "text": "但我觉得这是正确决定"
    },
    {
      "start": 3825.54,
      "end": 3828.48,
      "text": "那就是我们要把自己一个PU用起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 3828.48,
      "end": 3829.4,
      "text": "而不是拿去卖"
    },
    {
      "start": 3829.4,
      "end": 3831.42,
      "text": "我的意思是谁知道"
    },
    {
      "start": 3831.42,
      "end": 3834.28,
      "text": "如果他们愿意直接把GPU卖给OpenAI"
    },
    {
      "start": 3834.28,
      "end": 3836.2,
      "text": "Azure的增长会有多快"
    },
    {
      "start": 3836.2,
      "end": 3838.64,
      "text": "他们现在是要把Compute用在内部"
    },
    {
      "start": 3838.64,
      "end": 3840.74,
      "text": "让自己的产品变得更好"
    },
    {
      "start": 3840.74,
      "end": 3841.98,
      "text": "Copilot这么差"
    },
    {
      "start": 3841.98,
      "end": 3843.86,
      "text": "或者说之前一直这么差"
    },
    {
      "start": 3843.86,
      "end": 3846.02,
      "text": "一个原因就是可用的Compute不够"
    },
    {
      "start": 3846.02,
      "end": 3847.46,
      "text": "他们正在修这个问题"
    },
    {
      "start": 3847.46,
      "end": 3849.96,
      "text": "他现在就是Copilot的产品经理"
    },
    {
      "start": 3849.96,
      "end": 3853.12,
      "text": "我确实觉得他是一个很优秀的CEO"
    },
    {
      "start": 3853.12,
      "end": 3855.68,
      "text": "他们也在尝试用自己的pew"
    },
    {
      "start": 3855.68,
      "end": 3857.08,
      "text": "来训练自己的模型"
    },
    {
      "start": 3857.08,
      "end": 3859.88,
      "text": "我有点怀疑他们是不是有合适的团队"
    },
    {
      "start": 3859.88,
      "end": 3861.06,
      "text": "能把这件事做成"
    },
    {
      "start": 3861.06,
      "end": 3863.7200000000003,
      "text": "但他们当然有能力像Meta一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 3863.7200000000003,
      "end": 3865.0,
      "text": "花钱去招人"
    },
    {
      "start": 3865.0,
      "end": 3866.64,
      "text": "也许换一支不同的团队"
    },
    {
      "start": 3866.64,
      "end": 3869.5,
      "text": "但我觉得他正在做一些好的决定"
    },
    {
      "start": 3869.5,
      "end": 3871.76,
      "text": "而且这些决定有风险"
    },
    {
      "start": 3871.76,
      "end": 3875.28,
      "text": "目的是让微软为这样一个世界做好准备"
    },
    {
      "start": 3875.28,
      "end": 3878.02,
      "text": "Frontier Model不再能通过API访问"
    },
    {
      "start": 3878.02,
      "end": 3880.36,
      "text": "我觉得这是一个非常有勇气的决定"
    },
    {
      "start": 3880.36,
      "end": 3881.34,
      "text": "所以我很佩服他"
    },
    {
      "start": 3881.34,
      "end": 3883.06,
      "text": "他也放弃了很多东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 3883.06,
      "end": 3884.22,
      "text": "我的意思是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3884.22,
      "end": 3887.24,
      "text": "如果微软把GPU用来服务OpenAI"
    },
    {
      "start": 3887.24,
      "end": 3889.9,
      "text": "只服务OpenAI和Anthropic的capacity"
    },
    {
      "start": 3889.9,
      "end": 3891.9,
      "text": "而不是用在自己的产品上"
    },
    {
      "start": 3891.9,
      "end": 3893.16,
      "text": "微软的股价"
    },
    {
      "start": 3893.16,
      "end": 3895.2,
      "text": "今天可能已经是800美元了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3895.2,
      "end": 3897.64,
      "text": "所以我很佩服他做了一个很棒的决定"
    },
    {
      "start": 3897.64,
      "end": 3899.08,
      "text": "真正有意思的是"
    },
    {
      "start": 3899.08,
      "end": 3900.78,
      "text": "这些公司在做决策时"
    },
    {
      "start": 3900.78,
      "end": 3903.32,
      "text": "到底有多面向外部和startup"
    },
    {
      "start": 3903.32,
      "end": 3904.7599999999998,
      "text": "互动最深的两家公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3904.7599999999998,
      "end": 3906.92,
      "text": "远远领先的是Amazon和NVIDIA"
    },
    {
      "start": 3906.92,
      "end": 3909.26,
      "text": "然后Google也有非常深入的互动"
    },
    {
      "start": 3909.26,
      "end": 3910.2000000000003,
      "text": "再往后"
    },
    {
      "start": 3910.2000000000003,
      "end": 3912.44,
      "text": "Broadcom的参与方式不一样"
    },
    {
      "start": 3912.44,
      "end": 3916.28,
      "text": "他们基本上是所有人最喜欢的AIC供应商"
    },
    {
      "start": 3916.28,
      "end": 3917.84,
      "text": "如果你是一个Startup"
    },
    {
      "start": 3917.84,
      "end": 3919.7200000000003,
      "text": "第二代芯片能和Broadcom合作"
    },
    {
      "start": 3919.7200000000003,
      "end": 3921.62,
      "text": "大家会觉得这是一次升级"
    },
    {
      "start": 3921.62,
      "end": 3924.82,
      "text": "如果第一代芯片Broadcom就愿意和你合作"
    },
    {
      "start": 3924.82,
      "end": 3927.04,
      "text": "那简直像天上掉下来的礼物"
    },
    {
      "start": 3927.04,
      "end": 3929.86,
      "text": "然后你会看到AMD Microsoft和Meta"
    },
    {
      "start": 3929.86,
      "end": 3931.7400000000002,
      "text": "跟Startup的互动基本为零"
    },
    {
      "start": 3931.7400000000002,
      "end": 3933.42,
      "text": "当然我说零有点夸张"
    },
    {
      "start": 3933.42,
      "end": 3934.8,
      "text": "但确实非常少"
    },
    {
      "start": 3934.8,
      "end": 3936.02,
      "text": "我就会想"
    },
    {
      "start": 3936.02,
      "end": 3937.5,
      "text": "这个决定到底意味着什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 3937.5,
      "end": 3939.46,
      "text": "因为现在一些最好的团队"
    },
    {
      "start": 3939.46,
      "end": 3941.2000000000003,
      "text": "已经不在大型上市公司里了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3941.2000000000003,
      "end": 3943.7200000000003,
      "text": "而是在这些更小的startup里"
    },
    {
      "start": 3943.7200000000003,
      "end": 3945.1000000000004,
      "text": "我觉得这种互动"
    },
    {
      "start": 3945.1000000000004,
      "end": 3947.3,
      "text": "最终会变成一个相当大的优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 3947.3,
      "end": 3948.8,
      "text": "NVIDIA AMD"
    },
    {
      "start": 3948.8,
      "end": 3950.92,
      "text": "还有紧随其后的Google"
    },
    {
      "start": 3950.92,
      "end": 3952.0800000000004,
      "text": "会因此受益"
    },
    {
      "start": 3952.0800000000004,
      "end": 3954.42,
      "text": "而其他这些hyperscaler身上"
    },
    {
      "start": 3954.42,
      "end": 3955.44,
      "text": "你看不到这种互动"
    },
    {
      "start": 3955.44,
      "end": 3957.1600000000003,
      "text": "我们快收尾了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3957.1600000000003,
      "end": 3958.5,
      "text": "我很好奇"
    },
    {
      "start": 3958.5,
      "end": 3960.04,
      "text": "关于这个巨大趋势"
    },
    {
      "start": 3960.04,
      "end": 3961.86,
      "text": "你有没有开始想到一些"
    },
    {
      "start": 3961.86,
      "end": 3963.34,
      "text": "更外围的连锁反应"
    },
    {
      "start": 3963.34,
      "end": 3965.1800000000003,
      "text": "可以随便展开讲讲"
    },
    {
      "start": 3965.1800000000003,
      "end": 3966.98,
      "text": "我们已经很详细的聊了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3966.98,
      "end": 3969.3,
      "text": "受影响最大的具体公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 3969.3,
      "end": 3971.1200000000003,
      "text": "也稍微聊了应用层"
    },
    {
      "start": 3971.1200000000003,
      "end": 3974.5,
      "text": "以及如果想让更多价值流向这一层"
    },
    {
      "start": 3974.5,
      "end": 3975.7200000000003,
      "text": "必须发生什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 3975.7200000000003,
      "end": 3977.1000000000004,
      "text": "我很好奇"
    },
    {
      "start": 3977.1000000000004,
      "end": 3979.1000000000004,
      "text": "随着这个世界变化得这么快"
    },
    {
      "start": 3979.1000000000004,
      "end": 3981.84,
      "text": "你还在想哪些有意思的连带影响"
    },
    {
      "start": 3981.84,
      "end": 3983.2400000000002,
      "text": "确实很疯狂"
    },
    {
      "start": 3983.2400000000002,
      "end": 3985.2000000000003,
      "text": "应用层先别说价值流向了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3985.2000000000003,
      "end": 3986.58,
      "text": "价值已经被摧毁了"
    },
    {
      "start": 3986.58,
      "end": 3989.3,
      "text": "AI在应用层是净摧毁价值的"
    },
    {
      "start": 3989.3,
      "end": 3990.9,
      "text": "即使把Cursor Cognition"
    },
    {
      "start": 3990.9,
      "end": 3993.44,
      "text": "这些最成功的AI native公司算进去"
    },
    {
      "start": 3993.44,
      "end": 3998.06,
      "text": "AI也已经在应用层摧毁了数万亿美元的价值"
    },
    {
      "start": 3998.06,
      "end": 3999.34,
      "text": "在这个背景下"
    },
    {
      "start": 3999.34,
      "end": 4001.52,
      "text": "我确实觉得有一件事我们需要意识到"
    },
    {
      "start": 4001.52,
      "end": 4003.38,
      "text": "今天表现最好的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 4003.38,
      "end": 4005.02,
      "text": "也就是估值涨得最多"
    },
    {
      "start": 4005.02,
      "end": 4007.42,
      "text": "创造经济价值最多的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 4007.42,
      "end": 4009.2400000000002,
      "text": "是那些每个人对应的"
    },
    {
      "start": 4009.2400000000002,
      "end": 4011.2200000000003,
      "text": "以使用GPU比例最高"
    },
    {
      "start": 4011.2200000000003,
      "end": 4012.78,
      "text": "有效比例最高的公司"
    },
    {
      "start": 4012.78,
      "end": 4014.36,
      "text": "也许这只是意味着"
    },
    {
      "start": 4014.36,
      "end": 4016.2200000000003,
      "text": "未来每个人都会得到很多GPU"
    },
    {
      "start": 4016.2200000000003,
      "end": 4018.34,
      "text": "但我觉得这是一个有意思的事实"
    },
    {
      "start": 4018.34,
      "end": 4019.58,
      "text": "我们需要注意到"
    },
    {
      "start": 4019.58,
      "end": 4020.6600000000003,
      "text": "我还想说"
    },
    {
      "start": 4020.66,
      "end": 4022.3199999999997,
      "text": "也许这有点阴暗"
    },
    {
      "start": 4022.3199999999997,
      "end": 4024.6,
      "text": "但我越来越担心人身安全"
    },
    {
      "start": 4024.6,
      "end": 4026.3799999999997,
      "text": "我对这件事越来越担心"
    },
    {
      "start": 4026.3799999999997,
      "end": 4028.6,
      "text": "对那些公众曝光度高得多"
    },
    {
      "start": 4028.6,
      "end": 4030.46,
      "text": "和AI关联更强的人"
    },
    {
      "start": 4030.46,
      "end": 4031.3599999999997,
      "text": "我会更担心"
    },
    {
      "start": 4031.3599999999997,
      "end": 4033.14,
      "text": "但我真的担心人身安全"
    },
    {
      "start": 4033.14,
      "end": 4034.8799999999997,
      "text": "我希望不要发生什么悲剧"
    },
    {
      "start": 4034.8799999999997,
      "end": 4038.06,
      "text": "可是美国这里的政治暴力正在上升"
    },
    {
      "start": 4038.06,
      "end": 4040.16,
      "text": "随着AI越来越政治化"
    },
    {
      "start": 4040.16,
      "end": 4042.24,
      "text": "我担心这种暴力会越来越多地"
    },
    {
      "start": 4042.24,
      "end": 4043.8999999999996,
      "text": "指向AI领域的政治领袖"
    },
    {
      "start": 4043.8999999999996,
      "end": 4045.74,
      "text": "不管我们同意什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 4045.74,
      "end": 4048.04,
      "text": "也不管我对OpenAI怎么看"
    },
    {
      "start": 4048.04,
      "end": 4048.94,
      "text": "或者不怎么看"
    },
    {
      "start": 4048.94,
      "end": 4052.92,
      "text": "我都觉得有人像Sam Altman家里扔Molotov Cocktail"
    },
    {
      "start": 4052.92,
      "end": 4054.2200000000003,
      "text": "这件事非常可怕"
    },
    {
      "start": 4054.2200000000003,
      "end": 4057.5,
      "text": "我担心因为AI我们正在进入一个波动更高"
    },
    {
      "start": 4057.5,
      "end": 4058.2200000000003,
      "text": "Beta更高"
    },
    {
      "start": 4058.2200000000003,
      "end": 4059.44,
      "text": "风险更高的世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 4059.44,
      "end": 4061.12,
      "text": "对我个人来说是这样"
    },
    {
      "start": 4061.12,
      "end": 4064.1,
      "text": "然后对棋盘上的大玩家来说"
    },
    {
      "start": 4064.1,
      "end": 4066.78,
      "text": "你想想这在地缘政治上意味着什么"
    },
    {
      "start": 4066.78,
      "end": 4069.2200000000003,
      "text": "我们正在看到乌克兰人真的开始赢了"
    },
    {
      "start": 4069.2200000000003,
      "end": 4071.08,
      "text": "至于他们为什么在赢"
    },
    {
      "start": 4071.08,
      "end": 4075.16,
      "text": "我觉得其实并不是因为他们有更好的无人机"
    },
    {
      "start": 4075.5,
      "end": 4077.5,
      "text": "我觉得他们确实有更好的无人机"
    },
    {
      "start": 4077.5,
      "end": 4078.7000000000003,
      "text": "这是原因之一"
    },
    {
      "start": 4078.7,
      "end": 4081.0,
      "text": "但我认为乌克兰真正开始赢"
    },
    {
      "start": 4081.0,
      "end": 4085.52,
      "text": "是因为他们拥有可能仅次于美国和以色列的最佳战场AI"
    },
    {
      "start": 4085.52,
      "end": 4089.3599999999997,
      "text": "当中国或者他们的对手开始消化这一点时"
    },
    {
      "start": 4089.3599999999997,
      "end": 4091.0,
      "text": "他们会怎么回应"
    },
    {
      "start": 4091.0,
      "end": 4093.64,
      "text": "如果美国因为AI领先而占优势"
    },
    {
      "start": 4093.64,
      "end": 4095.1,
      "text": "那对美国当然很好"
    },
    {
      "start": 4095.1,
      "end": 4097.22,
      "text": "但对世界其他地方来说"
    },
    {
      "start": 4097.22,
      "end": 4098.36,
      "text": "这是不稳定因素"
    },
    {
      "start": 4098.36,
      "end": 4099.84,
      "text": "我经常想的一件事"
    },
    {
      "start": 4099.84,
      "end": 4102.5199999999995,
      "text": "是创办一个慈善机构去教育全世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 4102.5199999999995,
      "end": 4105.46,
      "text": "西方到底做过多少了不起的事"
    },
    {
      "start": 4105.46,
      "end": 4107.98,
      "text": "奴隶制基本上曾经存在于"
    },
    {
      "start": 4107.98,
      "end": 4109.28,
      "text": "几乎所有文明里"
    },
    {
      "start": 4109.28,
      "end": 4110.879999999999,
      "text": "而真正终结奴隶制的"
    },
    {
      "start": 4110.879999999999,
      "end": 4112.5599999999995,
      "text": "是大英帝国这个故事"
    },
    {
      "start": 4112.5599999999995,
      "end": 4113.82,
      "text": "应该被讲出来"
    },
    {
      "start": 4113.82,
      "end": 4116.82,
      "text": "但美国在1945年之后拥有核弹"
    },
    {
      "start": 4116.82,
      "end": 4118.099999999999,
      "text": "其他国家都没有"
    },
    {
      "start": 4118.099999999999,
      "end": 4120.4,
      "text": "我们本来可以永远控制世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 4120.4,
      "end": 4121.74,
      "text": "可我们没有那样做"
    },
    {
      "start": 4121.74,
      "end": 4124.24,
      "text": "我们重建了德国和日本"
    },
    {
      "start": 4124.24,
      "end": 4126.94,
      "text": "而他们现在是美国最可靠的盟友"
    },
    {
      "start": 4126.94,
      "end": 4128.5599999999995,
      "text": "以色列韩国日本"
    },
    {
      "start": 4128.5599999999995,
      "end": 4130.639999999999,
      "text": "这些都证明了美国这个国家的精神"
    },
    {
      "start": 4130.639999999999,
      "end": 4131.759999999999,
      "text": "我们没有接管世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 4131.759999999999,
      "end": 4133.839999999999,
      "text": "当时确实有这种担忧"
    },
    {
      "start": 4133.839999999999,
      "end": 4134.759999999999,
      "text": "也有记录"
    },
    {
      "start": 4134.759999999999,
      "end": 4137.299999999999,
      "text": "美国将军们尤其是麦克阿瑟"
    },
    {
      "start": 4137.3,
      "end": 4139.400000000001,
      "text": "在日本有点像美国皇帝"
    },
    {
      "start": 4139.400000000001,
      "end": 4140.92,
      "text": "有人担心美国会接管世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 4140.92,
      "end": 4143.58,
      "text": "美国当时确实有能力这么做"
    },
    {
      "start": 4143.58,
      "end": 4144.92,
      "text": "但没有这么做"
    },
    {
      "start": 4144.92,
      "end": 4145.820000000001,
      "text": "他们回家了"
    },
    {
      "start": 4145.820000000001,
      "end": 4146.860000000001,
      "text": "我们还去军事化"
    },
    {
      "start": 4146.860000000001,
      "end": 4150.2,
      "text": "然后世界进入了一段很长的全球稳定时期"
    },
    {
      "start": 4150.2,
      "end": 4153.46,
      "text": "虽然中间也有可怕的战争和危机"
    },
    {
      "start": 4153.46,
      "end": 4154.9800000000005,
      "text": "这就是Pax Americana"
    },
    {
      "start": 4154.9800000000005,
      "end": 4156.28,
      "text": "美国治下的和平"
    },
    {
      "start": 4156.28,
      "end": 4158.400000000001,
      "text": "所以也许这并不会造成不稳定"
    },
    {
      "start": 4158.400000000001,
      "end": 4160.06,
      "text": "也许它会带来另一个"
    },
    {
      "start": 4160.06,
      "end": 4163.66,
      "text": "由我们的AI主导地位塑造的Pax Americana"
    },
    {
      "start": 4163.66,
      "end": 4164.72,
      "text": "我非常乐观"
    },
    {
      "start": 4164.72,
      "end": 4167.26,
      "text": "觉得AI会给世界带来很棒的东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 4167.26,
      "end": 4171.68,
      "text": "有个人他的女儿被诊断出一种非常罕见的基因突变"
    },
    {
      "start": 4171.68,
      "end": 4172.6,
      "text": "没有疗法"
    },
    {
      "start": 4172.6,
      "end": 4174.22,
      "text": "他调动了很多资源"
    },
    {
      "start": 4174.22,
      "end": 4176.860000000001,
      "text": "也从一些实验室拿到了大量computer"
    },
    {
      "start": 4176.860000000001,
      "end": 4179.3,
      "text": "那些实验室知道了这件事之后"
    },
    {
      "start": 4179.3,
      "end": 4181.02,
      "text": "就迅速启动起来"
    },
    {
      "start": 4181.02,
      "end": 4182.8,
      "text": "他们启动了大量agent"
    },
    {
      "start": 4182.8,
      "end": 4185.7,
      "text": "用AI找到了一种已经上市的药物"
    },
    {
      "start": 4185.7,
      "end": 4187.5,
      "text": "真的可以影响他女儿的疾病"
    },
    {
      "start": 4187.5,
      "end": 4190.54,
      "text": "后来他又创办了一家公司想要治愈这种病"
    },
    {
      "start": 4190.54,
      "end": 4191.46,
      "text": "因为AI"
    },
    {
      "start": 4191.46,
      "end": 4194.4400000000005,
      "text": "他的人生已经发生了无法衡量的变化"
    },
    {
      "start": 4194.4400000000005,
      "end": 4196.42,
      "text": "所以我是AI乐观派"
    },
    {
      "start": 4196.42,
      "end": 4198.84,
      "text": "甚至可以说是AI最大化主义者"
    },
    {
      "start": 4198.84,
      "end": 4199.74,
      "text": "但我也承认"
    },
    {
      "start": 4199.74,
      "end": 4201.22,
      "text": "AI就像是一个世间世界"
    },
    {
      "start": 4201.22,
      "end": 4202.16,
      "text": "我很确定"
    },
    {
      "start": 4202.16,
      "end": 4203.64,
      "text": "它会成为一个断点"
    },
    {
      "start": 4203.64,
      "end": 4204.64,
      "text": "作为社会"
    },
    {
      "start": 4204.64,
      "end": 4206.84,
      "text": "我们必须想办法穿越过去"
    },
    {
      "start": 4206.84,
      "end": 4209.62,
      "text": "我认为卢德主义者最终会是错的"
    },
    {
      "start": 4209.62,
      "end": 4212.38,
      "text": "但我们必须非常认真的对待他们的担忧"
    },
    {
      "start": 4212.38,
      "end": 4214.86,
      "text": "我们要确保AI对每个人都有好处"
    },
    {
      "start": 4214.86,
      "end": 4216.52,
      "text": "现在最好的AI"
    },
    {
      "start": 4216.52,
      "end": 4218.56,
      "text": "只对有很多钱的人开放"
    },
    {
      "start": 4218.56,
      "end": 4220.54,
      "text": "这确实有点反乌托邦"
    },
    {
      "start": 4220.54,
      "end": 4222.38,
      "text": "这个问题我们必须解决"
    },
    {
      "start": 4222.38,
      "end": 4225.14,
      "text": "我们需要带着谦逊来面对这件事"
    },
    {
      "start": 4225.14,
      "end": 4227.280000000001,
      "text": "承认这里有大量不确定性"
    },
    {
      "start": 4227.280000000001,
      "end": 4228.42,
      "text": "并且认真思考"
    },
    {
      "start": 4228.42,
      "end": 4230.04,
      "text": "每次跟你聊完"
    },
    {
      "start": 4230.04,
      "end": 4231.320000000001,
      "text": "我之后都会跟别人说"
    },
    {
      "start": 4231.320000000001,
      "end": 4233.660000000001,
      "text": "希望你也能找到一样东西"
    },
    {
      "start": 4233.660000000001,
      "end": 4235.4800000000005,
      "text": "像Gavin热爱市场"
    },
    {
      "start": 4235.4800000000005,
      "end": 4237.58,
      "text": "公司资本主义和历史那样热爱他"
    },
    {
      "start": 4237.58,
      "end": 4239.860000000001,
      "text": "今天也都展现出来了"
    },
    {
      "start": 4239.860000000001,
      "end": 4242.02,
      "text": "Gavin一如既往"
    },
    {
      "start": 4242.02,
      "end": 4244.0,
      "text": "非常感谢你抽时间来聊"
    },
    {
      "start": 4244.0,
      "end": 4244.740000000001,
      "text": "谢谢"
    },
    {
      "start": 4244.740000000001,
      "end": 4246.14,
      "text": "谢谢你Patrick"
    }
  ]
}